The only ones proclaiming a Jeb defeat as imminent were the liberal media and hard-core Democrat partisans. Any polling data indicating such an incredible lead for McBride were highly suspicious. You'll notice, too, that I'd never claim that the 20-25% margin that Nelson leads by would turn out that way in the general... that's why I say she is no more than actually 10% behind Nelson. And she'll probably stay that way until election day.
"With the pubbies coming together, Nelson's liberal voting record will be exposed and Harris will gain in the polls."
Again, do you understand that ideology isn't the problem in this race ? It's the CANDIDATE. If ideology were the problem, Jeb would also similarly be down 20%+ in the same polls, he's not... he's 10% ahead of Nelson.
"Harris can win and all the hand wringing about her negatives, or her being controversial, is nonsense, and serves as a sad commentary on the lack of optimism that should define Conservatives."
No one has produced ANY substantive evidence or proof she CAN win. Unless you're prepared to make Nelson the anti-Christ and make his negatives even higher than Harris's sky-high negs, there is no way she will overcome the deficit. I always thought that what defines Conservatives is dealing with the REALITY of situations and not believing, as liberals do, that being behind 25% in the polls means you will WIN.
Of course she can win.
Polling this far out is meaningless anyway. Does anyone really think Santorum is 15% behind in his race? No one is really paying attention this far out and those numbers will tighten as we get closer to the election.
..that's why I say she is no more than actually 10% behind Nelson. And she'll probably stay that way until election day.
Based on what, the debates? You're calling a race, by 10%, that most voters aren't even paying attention to yet? Please.
do you understand that ideology isn't the problem in this race ?
The problem here isn't ideology. The problem is negativism. Harris is a Conservative Republican just like Bush. Unfortunately for her, the Republicans have not come out enthusiastically for her and that has hurt her among her own party as well as independents and crossover Dem's. With Bush and others state Republicans rallying for her, she stands a good chance of closing the gap. The base is not the problem and will vote in large numbers, especially if the marriage referendum make the 2006 ballot.
No one has produced ANY substantive evidence or proof she CAN win.
Other than this being a red state and the fact that there are no statewide elected Dem's left here other than Nelson? LOL. Yeah, Gov. Bush was going down to defeat here in 2002 because of him helping his brother steal the 2000 election. It was McAwful's top priority, remember? If the Dem's didn't crawl across broken glass in 2002 to avenge the stealing of the 2000 election, what makes anyone think they'll appear in droves in 2006 to beat Harris? You can offer nothing that says Harris can't win in 2006 other than some pollsters asking questions to people who really are not paying attention.
I always thought that what defines Conservatives is dealing with the REALITY of situations and not believing, as liberals do, that being behind 25% in the polls means you will WIN.
If we followed your reality we'd never win much of anything. You give far too much credit to pollsters this early in an election year. Even Reagan trailed Carter by huge numbers in 1980 and was still behind in some polls prior to the October 28, debate.
Reagan was an optimist and he defined modern conservatism as being optimistic by nature. Dem's believe all sorts of crazy things so I can't speak to whether or not they think they will win if they are 25 points behind in the polls. However, Harris is in a red state and will now have the backing she needs to win. This is not NY or California. A Conservative like Harris can still win here.
You should keep your focus on TN. You're going to need a little optimism to hold on to your own seat.