SINGULARITY: UBIQUITY INTERVIEWS RAY KURZWEIL

[Ray Kurzweil is one of the world's leading inventors, thinkers and futurists. His latest book is the just-published "The Singularity Is Near."]

KURZWEIL: Very well -- it's in its fourth printing, and has been number one both in science and in philosophy on Amazon.

UBIQUITY:: Why don't you talk a little bit about the notion of "singularity"? Set the premise for us.

KURZWEIL: Sure. It's actually a complicated premise, but there are several key ideas. First of all, there's the idea that technology in general is accelerating rapidly, and information technology in particular is doubling its power, as measured in price performance and bandwidth capacity, every year. We will see the power of information technology multiplied by a factor of a billion in 25 years. If you imagine increasing the power of computers for the same price, computation, communication, as well as our knowledge of biology, and knowledge of intelligence processes in the brain, by a factor of a billion in 25 years, it's quite a formidable result.

I am the very model of a Singularitarian
I'm combination Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian,
Aggressively I’m changing all my body’s biochemistry
Because my body's heritage is obsolete genetically,
Replacing all the cells each month it's here just temporarily
The pattern of my brain and body’s where there's continuity,
I'll try to improve these patterns with optimal biology,
(“But how will I do that? I need to be smarter. Ah, yes…”)
I’ll expand my mental faculties by merging with technology,
Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology,
Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology
Expand his mental faculties by merging with technology

And with our new technology, renewable clean energy,
Remove our pathogens and overcome hunger and poverty
In short I am a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
I am the very model of a Singularitarian
In short he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
He is the very model of a Singularitarian

Knowledge in all forms music, art, science and technology,
Our brains and bodies all precious and any loss a tragedy
Important recognitions and insights are what we should retain
While we destroy all of the useless information that remains
And when a person dies we lose a profound pattern tragically,
And the part of ourselves that interacted with them lit’rally
Religious folks may rationalize that death is really something good
(“Something Good? Something GOOD? Eh?)
I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood
I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood
I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood
I think they’d change their minds if Singularity were understood

I create and appreciate all of the knowledge that I know
Toward greater order even though complexity I know may grow
In short I am Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
I am the very model of a Singularitarian
In short he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
He is the very model of a Singularitarian

The purpose of the universe is that of all our human lives
Since no aliens have come forth this much we can now rationalize
We’ll spread our thoughts with nanobots that know how to self-replicate
Through solar system, Milky Way or anywhere we designate
Ideas are our products that will solve the problems of our fate
And new ideas for the problems we can’t yet articulate
Let’s leverage all our knowledge from the returns that accelerate
(Returns that accelerate? Sounds familiar. Ah yes, the law of accelerating returns by Ray Kurzweil, of course, OF COURSE!)
So the outcome of universe is something we can contemplate
The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate
The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate
The outcome of universe is something we can contemplate

The singularity is near but I won’t be indifferent
In case something should go awry I’ll do my bestest to prevent
Because I am a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
I am the very model of a Singularitarian
Because he is a Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian
He is the very model of a Singularitarian

(Yes! Singularity! Woo hoo! Singularity is here! Singularity is near! Singularity!)

Take thermodynamics. It's impossible to predict the path of a single molecule in the air, because it follows a random unpredictable path, and that's true of all of the particles. Yet, the overall properties of the gas, made up of all of these unpredictable particles is very predictable according to the laws of thermodynamics. And the whole process of technology evolution is similarly a complex dynamic system where each individual project is unpredictable, but the overall results are very predictable.

This also describes free enterprise. R. Buckminster Fuller, of Buckyball and Fullerine fame, said, "Free enterprise has the unique ability to transform the selfish desires of the individual into a good for the whole."

"Who in the world would want to live forever?"

A couple of points.

"Forever" is a long time and I know of no one predicting that. Journalists writing on this topic get loose and sloppy with their terminology. The recent 60 Minutes piece on "Immortality" is a good example. Immortality is the absence or impossibility of death. No one I know of is talking about that.

At a recent scientific conference Kurzweil was asked how long he expected to live. His response:1000 years.

Secondly, all this talk presupposes that diseases associated with advanced age have been overcome and tissue and organ regeneration is possible. In other words it would be possible to live as a healthy 35-45 year old for hundreds of years.

I guess it'll be the case that anyone can opt to not take advantage of these new breakthrough technologies and simply die of cancer, heart disease or stroke but I'll wager right here and now it'll be about as large a percentage as those who refused antibiotics when they were first used and chose to die of simple bacterial infections.

In other words not many.

"The Spike" has also been discussed in Damien Broderick's book of that name published in 2001.

The subtitle is "How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies".

Another persuasive book is Wil McCarthy's "Hacking Matter".

In the mid 1990s I was constantly discussing the future of the Internet with friends and family. My wife politely tolerated my "whims of fancy". Now, when the Internet is pervasive in the economy, many of those same friends and family still aren't on line--but they have to listen to just about "everybody" talking about it. :-)

I am getting a similar reaction with folks when I discuss the "singularity" or "spike".

As I explained to my wife--there is only way our relatives will die in the next hundred years--if they choose to do so.

I hate funerals--and I may a problem attending one for someone who turned down the opportunity to remain alive just because they were a stubborn idiot.

Yes. It has been my understanding that the overall AI community has general doubts on AI's potential to fully mimic the brain. For that matter, most of the brain's functions are unknown. We can see blood flow/ionic charge differences in the brain's regions during a given task, but does that tell us how we are able to analyze and act on sensations?

It is propability true that computers will someday surpass our raw calculation potential (depending on whose numbers you use), but the software and especially the integration of various softwares to fully replicate and outdo our abilies is very, very speculative.

One final point. The scientifically-illiterate press always has controversial headlines but little substance. For instance there was the "Creativity Machine." This supposed "creative AI" was supposed to render human creativity useless. Then I read more credible sources on the scientist and his machine. It is basically a variable integrator that has a couple algorhythms to exclude combinations that are easily excludible. Still, the human decides what combinations are worthwhile--so it doesn't have creativity after all. But the SCIENTIST called it a "creativity machines"... No doubt he was a brialliant programmer, but still seemingly as prone to overexaggeration as the non-sci media.

Kursweil's opinions are interesting, but I believe in 25 years he will still be making those same prophecies. The only difference will be more disparate software that can do isolated tasks (ex match sound wave functions like we can) and computing power will have advanced.

I believe Kursweil will indeed die someday, in his organic body.

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