The vertical run up looks more like 1929 than 1965, but who knows what tomorrow will bring.
One thing for sure, PMs look way better than equities....unless you're talking energy, commodities, mining etc.
Posted on 01/18/2006 7:52:44 AM PST by misterrob
DOW had been essentially flat for 6 yrs now with unprecedented liquidity courtesy of Greenspan. Next move probably will be down.
Goldbug Alert!
Never mind that technical stuff. The most certain indicator of a correction is that my wife just started buying stocks again.
Every time she gets the notion, something bad happens.
Me thinks this guy is an idiot -- not because a 30% decline can't happen, because clearly it has and will happen again -- but because he fails to recognize that we are currently in a long term bear market that happens to be going through a cylical bull market. As a result his historical comparisons are meaningless. I've said it before and I will say it again, that the market is going to to do whatever it wants to do whenever it decides to do it, and our job as investors is not to try to predict, but rather, to react without overreacting.
Are you a goldbug or just referring to the fact that gold has more than doubled over the same time period?
If no action is taken, when Iran gets nukes it will then block the Straits and the world economy will crash.
I would expect the straits to be blocked for a maximum of 24 hours.
Actually, if we have a shooting war with Iran the Dow could drop to around the 7,500 range reached as an aftereffect of the 9/11 attacks. I'd start investing in oil, gold, diamond and platinum stocks because you know those will hit the roof in value as investors reach for the safety of these commodities.
The vertical run up looks more like 1929 than 1965, but who knows what tomorrow will bring.
One thing for sure, PMs look way better than equities....unless you're talking energy, commodities, mining etc.
... or the flight time of a sub-launched Tomahawk to target, whichever comes first.
Only ONE way the Dow will decline 30+% in 2006. An Oil crisis.
Question: how many mobile Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles does Iran have?
Question: how many days did it take to knock out all of Saddam's mobile SCUDs during Desert Storm?
(We never did.)
Well Said.
A monumental terrorist act would do the trick as well.
Naw... the only reason the Dow will decline is more sellers than buyers :-)
those russian silkworm missiles are going to really help the iranians when we fire salvo's of anti-ship harpoon missiles from submarines and F-15's at whatever Hitler Jr tries to block the strait with.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-84.htm
How does a Tomahawk open up the Straits of Hormuz, if the Iranians have 100s of hidden mobile Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles, and they pop a couple off a day, (the way Saddam did with his SCUDs during every day of the Desert Storm air war?)
Not so. The number of sellers and buyers are always the same, no matter what the market it doing.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.