Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot
January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay Cost
Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question: should people believe her?
The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.
A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.
First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.
The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?
If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.
Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago
You know what? I do make a lot less than half your salary. Your right....I am serving in the military. Let's not even go into that battle.
If we could get the alphabet voters on both sides to stop voting brainlessly and organize a new party, there would be hope. Unfortunately, most people get their information from television and such as Rush Limbaugh, and buy into the false us-versus-them dichotomous party system.
I just see the whole thing going down in flames, in some form or another. That's why I quit.
And, darn, Mr. Wright, you've been around for a long time. My hat's off to you, and I bend knee in respect to a true FR old-timer.
Thank you for your service.
You do now.
New River Trailer Park in Onslow County. And that's more than I've ever revealed to anyone in one of these threads, bub.
Yeah, pretty much all hat and very few cattle. The Mrs. is the smart one in the family. I'm all yap.
I could care less. In fact, I'm not going to lose sleep over some complete stranger on some internet forum who claims to make more money than a half dozen or so other posters in the same thread.
I don't judge people by the size of their wallet. To me, it's character that matters.
Oh my god, I apoligize for too many things to go into right now.
My daddy's retirement benefits are being cut almost monthly, and my very good friend in the Air Force has some stories to tell, so I sympathize. And apologize. Again.
Thank you Howlin. No amount of money could be paid to me to think like that guy...Ever.
Oh I better say this before he thinks I am insulted....I am not insulted or angry or anything that you may think I am.
I agree 100 percent. Who would want to be like that? UGH.
My character is twisted, bombastic, and the ladies find it charming as all get out. I also tithe to charity, train therapy dogs, and am VERY nice to anyone who leaves me alone.
And I'm pretty well-to-do. Make of it all what you will.
As usual, you took my quote to refer to YOU. I meant it to refer to your idol, Keyes, who is "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" but talk.
Who'd want to trumpet to the world that the foundation of their personality consists of vehicles they've purchased?
Ugh!
Evidently you have quite a chip on your shoulder about it, which, of course, explains your need to convince total strangers on the internet that you are 'somebody.'
In my defense, he and I are a lot alike, I feel. I've been to a couple of Alan Keyes live events, and he is so full of himself I'm surprised if his eyes don't glow in the dark.
I'm nobody. Just ask my wife.
Ah, you?
Well, you already know what I make of it.
My Lincoln was a gift.
You're the only one on here talking about what you drive, dope.
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