Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It this time.
RealClearPolitics.com ^ | 01/17/2006 | Jay Cost

Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot

January 17, 2006

Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.

By Jay Cost

Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.

The question: should people believe her?

The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.

A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.

However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.

First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.

Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.

The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.

So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?

If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.

It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.

Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: condi; notrunning; rice; rice2008
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 201-220221-240241-260 ... 461 next last
To: napscoordinator

And, I suspect from his self-admitted white-trash background and excessive bragging, someone who has an inferiority complex.


221 posted on 01/17/2006 11:14:46 AM PST by Carolinamom (New member of Sam's Club)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 216 | View Replies]

To: ReaganRevolution
Just curious, what do you plan to accomplish by your protest?

Electing a Democrat from the looks of it.

222 posted on 01/17/2006 11:15:47 AM PST by FreedomCalls (It's the "Statue of Liberty," not the "Statue of Security.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom

Ma'am, be careful, you're drawing circles around yourself.


223 posted on 01/17/2006 11:15:56 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom
Major. The problem is he is "teaching" the next generation of minds to think as he does and that is the ultimate tragedy.
224 posted on 01/17/2006 11:16:16 AM PST by napscoordinator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom

LOL!


225 posted on 01/17/2006 11:16:39 AM PST by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: FreedomCalls

Electing a Democrat won't make a difference. Jeesh, how many elections are required to prove this point?


226 posted on 01/17/2006 11:16:58 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 222 | View Replies]

To: warchild9
Nicked you, did I? LOL

One question: You've said you liked to hear Keyes talk. Admittedly, he does that very well, but what has he DONE (besides impress you)?

227 posted on 01/17/2006 11:17:54 AM PST by Carolinamom (New member of Sam's Club)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 223 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom
And, I suspect from his self-admitted white-trash background and excessive bragging, someone who has an inferiority complex.

Or trailer park envy.

228 posted on 01/17/2006 11:18:02 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper ("Tucker Carlson could reveal himself as a castrated, lesbian, rodeo clown ...wouldn't surprise me")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

You're just angry that I kept paid to talk, while you probably make half my salary doing...god knows what any Indian could do cheaper and better.


229 posted on 01/17/2006 11:18:10 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 224 | View Replies]

To: areafiftyone

Teaching? College administration maybe. At today's university, never the twain shall meet.


230 posted on 01/17/2006 11:18:23 AM PST by Austin Willard Wright
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

"Kept"? read: "get"

I've got to stop posting simultaneously on three threads on two different sites

/love Firefox


231 posted on 01/17/2006 11:19:19 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 224 | View Replies]

To: BigSkyFreeper

My wife has called me worse...


232 posted on 01/17/2006 11:20:23 AM PST by Little Ray (I'm a reactionary, hirsute, gun-owning, knuckle dragging, Christian Neanderthal and proud of it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 191 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom

Oh, he has even less political experience than W did when he was chosen to be the face in front of the cameras.

I don't expect him to. He's a great orator. That's all I want.


233 posted on 01/17/2006 11:20:45 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 227 | View Replies]

To: warchild9
You're just angry that I kept paid to talk, while you probably make half my salary doing...god knows what any Indian could do cheaper and better.

Ward Churchill is that you?

234 posted on 01/17/2006 11:21:18 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper ("Tucker Carlson could reveal himself as a castrated, lesbian, rodeo clown ...wouldn't surprise me")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 229 | View Replies]

To: BigSkyFreeper

Hey, I haven't lived in a trailer since I was ten years old, okay?


235 posted on 01/17/2006 11:21:35 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 228 | View Replies]

To: warchild9

Government grows bigger and bigger, no matter which party wins. Those who continue to think that their votes for either of these "choices" are the true pie in the sky idealists. They are wasting their time (and votes).


236 posted on 01/17/2006 11:21:38 AM PST by Austin Willard Wright
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 226 | View Replies]

To: BigSkyFreeper

Hey, now, there are very few trailer parks in North Carolina.

In fact, I never knew anybody who lived in one.


237 posted on 01/17/2006 11:22:27 AM PST by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 228 | View Replies]

To: BigSkyFreeper

I'm 75% Swedish and 25% French. Not a drop of Indian blood.

Oh, sorry, Native American.


238 posted on 01/17/2006 11:23:00 AM PST by warchild9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 234 | View Replies]

To: warchild9

"Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." That's it?


239 posted on 01/17/2006 11:23:08 AM PST by Carolinamom (New member of Sam's Club)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 233 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
In fact, I never knew anybody who lived in one.

It's like rubbing elbows with mattress buttons.

240 posted on 01/17/2006 11:24:45 AM PST by BigSkyFreeper ("Tucker Carlson could reveal himself as a castrated, lesbian, rodeo clown ...wouldn't surprise me")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 237 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 201-220221-240241-260 ... 461 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson