Posted on 01/17/2006 7:26:57 AM PST by SirLinksalot
January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay Cost
Earlier this week the Associated Press reported that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question: should people believe her?
The answer: definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008. The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought. The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest in the presidency.
A long time ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly) after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun, William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig. That office remains one of the preeminent political positions in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However, it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State. And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G. Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence. Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters of governance.
First, the number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second, it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State – Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions. It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries of State.
The rise of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than, say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher, Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not be at State today. She would have secured for herself some other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was interested in the White House?
If she is not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”. Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen, Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in 2008.
Jay Cost, creator of the Horse Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at the University of Chicago
Ehhh...I never tell where I got my PhD, I just make fun of the amount of time it took me to finish it.
BUUTTTT...I received mine from either UNCCH or Duke. And it's where I'm teaching, now. And the school has several famous military historians, two of whom were my dissertation advisors.
Like I said, you spend a lot of time alone, and in your manly pickup wishing you had a girlfriend. I grew up white trash, too, and I know your type.
It seems to me that is some kind of claim of superiority. When you might have said political differences, tone, direction, etc. you said intellectually inferior.
Who is we? Many of the GOPers are having a problem deciding whether they want to be 'rats or mice. Most of the others are in a frenzy to hold on to a few blades of socialist grass so they do not fall off the planet political.
I do agree that conservatives need to unify, now!
Yes, it DID take me a long time to finish. Mommy didn't pay my way through school, and...wait for it, let me intimidate you intellectually some more...and MIDDLE MANAGEMENT in the PHARMACEUTICAL industry sucks the life out of a person.
Ignorance on parade; and I know your type: those who can't do, teach. (Apologies to my friends that teach, but I just had to!)
Hahahahahahaha. That's funny. You're projecting.
While I do not have a PhD, I do have a BA, MA, and PBK.
And those who are insecure, type anonymous insults on a keyboard, because you'd never have the guts to confront anyone face-to-face. Except from behind a steering wheel you purchased.
So you stocked at a drug store, huh?
My grandmother use to say, "If you have to tell people how great you are, you probably aren't." Anybody who reads your posts on FR can see why you still come here.
We who can't teach, publish books, and don't purchase and drive our manhood...menhood...manhoods...
There are plenty of people on this very forum who I have met face to face; just the normal ones though, not the ones like you.
I still come here for my ping lists.
I respond to you because I left people of your social class waaay behind me years ago, and it's kind of nostalgic to trade quips with you.
You sound and post like a metrosexual. That's quite common on college campuses these days, so I hear.
ROFLMAO.......like I said, if you HAVE to tell people that, you aren't/haven't.
I think you're more than likely projecting!
That's a very strange comment unless you represent everyone in North Carolina.
like i care...
Sir, I do NOT use hair gel, and I wear SAS shoes. I drive a very large American car that gets crappy gas mileage, not a Volvo.
Please, metrosexual. Ha. How insulting.
Nothing strang about it; I think I can safely speak for most NC Freepers when I say this guy doesn't represent the vast majority of us or the people of this state.
I am Catholic as well, but that does not dictate who I vote for President. If that were the case, I would have voted for Kerry....No Way...Catholic or not. Actually, picking a President because of the way he speaks is not exactly the smartest measure of a person politically. Don't we pick actors to do that in movies? IMHO.
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