The Coming of the Bomb [good read]

The Belmont Club | Jan 17, 2006 | Wretchard

[El Gato]

The Dark Ages are looking to make a comeback.

I think it's quite likely that any process tending towards a new Dark Age, will be interrupted by a geographically limited, very short, but very very Bright Age.

The side effects of that are not very visible in my crystal ball however.

[Cyber Liberty]

This may require a full-scale nuclear attack. Boy, it's going to suck being Persian.

[livius]

The Three Conjectures is certainly excellent and thought-provoking - thanks for providing that link!

Wretchard describes the situation very accurately: The terrorist intent to destroy the United States, at whatever cost to themselves, has been a given since September 11. Only their capability is in doubt. This is an inversion of the Cold War situation when the capability of the Soviet Union to destroy America was given but their intent to do so, in the face of certain retaliation, was doubtful.

We are in a situation that is totally unlike anything we have prepared ourselves to face and, for that matter, anything that is remotely intelligible to the modern world, which thinks of wars as being directed at promoting the interests of states, structures or powers, and not aimed at obliteration, even of the enemy.

He makes an interesting distinction between a nuclear weapon or attack that could be repeated and one that would be, essentially, a one-time thing, produced by the terrorists almost by blind luck. The latter would require a limited response, striking only those immediately involved, whereas the former would require all-out nuclear war, because it would be clear that the enemy, Islam, would not stop until it had destroyed anything that was not part of it - or was destroyed first.

Very disturbing all, and none of the options look particularly good. I notice that Wretchard has been considering this for a number of years (the pieces were in 2003), but I think that few of the rest of us have really focused on it until now, when it is suddenly looming in our path and simply can't be avoided.

[68skylark]

Good comments. You highlighted a few sentences from Wretchard about enemy intent and capability. Those are exactly the sentences that jumped out at me when I read this the first time. I think Wretchard has illuminated the situation very well -- better than anyone else I've read.

[GOPJ]

bump

[Dr. Scarpetta]

Second, an ever more nuclear-ready Iran will try to lead the revolutionary Islamic vanguard throughout the Islamic world by becoming the main support for terrorist organizations aimed against Washington’s key regional ally, Israel; America’s key energy source, Saudi Arabia; and Washington’s prospective democratic ally, Iraq.

BUMP

[Semper Paratus]

Either way, it's win/win for the Mullahs.

That looks like their game plan. They may have already calculated the cost of an Isreali strike is worth it for what they would gain in 'street cred' within the Islamic world.