Posted on 01/12/2006 4:59:26 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
“If she has any pride, she’ll be out in a month,” said a Republican with close ties to Harris campaign officials. “If she cares about her party, she’ll be out in a month. Otherwise, the Senatorial Committee won’t do a thing and she’ll get beat by 15 points.”
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I live in Central FL and I think she could win IF she got the support she DESERVES from President Bush, Jeb, the RNC and the whole darn Republican party. If it weren't for this gutsy lady AL GORE would have been president. She put her reputation on the line and held firm against a horrible slime machine by Democrats. I think she DESERVES to run with the support of the party. Shame on GW and Jeb! I can tell you that most of the 60,000 people in the community I live in would vote for her!
She'll lose 55-45%. She can't close that gap.
She's not a RINO.
I thought all along she jumped into this before she was ready. A few more turns in congress would give her a little seasoning.
Although I'm not a Floridian,I'd suggest that you shouldn't bet on that.Howie Dean and friends would go to *any* lengths,and would spend *any* amount,to defeat the woman who "stole" the Presidency from that guy who couldn't even carry his home state in 2000.
Upshot is, we conservative Republican supporters are mad as hell at the appointment of Miers, and WH favoring Rinos like Jeffords, Spector and who knows in Florida.
Lets have a fair primary, let the voters chose, and then throw all we have in with the winner.
Harris will be the next junior Senator from Florida.
Didn't Scary Kerry lend himself money too during his failed presidential bid? I think it was a mortgage on his Beacon Hill home if my memory serves me right.
I'd go so far as to say ANY Republican will reach the 45% mark in FL, it's getting to the 50% that is the tougher part. I've tried to share the enthusiasm for Harris's candidacy, but there are inherent problems all around that will prevent her from winning the general at this point.
The media hatchet job on her going back to 2000 is one, the resulting chronic problem she has amongst Independent voters (nevermind Democrats), and she is even having chronic problems rallying the party and raising the kind of money necessary to mount a viable campaign. She is incredibly far behind in fundraising that if she were running in any other state, she wouldn't be considered much of a threat for any Democrat incumbent.
She has had enough time now to turn the perceptions around (and I had high hopes she could do it), but has failed. For us to nominate her based on her performance to date and these dynamics would be very foolhardy. Let's not forget, too, that the last time she ran for statewide office was 8 years ago when she was a relatively unknown and non-controversial individual who swept to office on the strength of Jeb's coattails (and because the job was eliminated as a Constitutionally-elected office, she was unable to face the voters in '02, which would've gauged her actual statewide appeal -- as it was, her performance in winning the House seat was somewhat subpar).
If we could persuade either Gallagher or Crist to drop out of the Governor's race and switch over, they would immediately become competitive. If we wanted to WIN this seat without so much as breaking a sweat, we'd have Jeb jump in, and the race would be over already. As it stands now, Harris isn't going to take out Nelson...
She then immediately left without shaking hands after getting an obviously staged note that she had a "pressing appointment". As a big backer of her, it was quite a disappointment.
If Harris should drop out, which I don't rule out, the Republicans most likely to run are RINO Congressman Mark Fole, Congressman Dave Weldon, and state House Speaker Allen Bense.
Either Weldon or Bense would be a very good choice. Both are very little-known but holding Bill Nelson's support at below 50% of the vote.
Jeb won Florida
W won Florida against IMO massive fraud
Martinez won the Senate
Harris won the House, probably would have beat Matinez and already be in the Senate.
We can win with the best, why be too smart by half. Let the voters chose, not Rove. I smell machine politics being attempted in Florida, and it's going to backfire. We may win with another candidate, but it won't be nearly as sweet.
I'd ride night herd with her on Brokeback Mountain any time, any place!
"You're basing your arguments on early manipulated polls and speculation."
These polls are anything but early. She didn't just jump into the race yesterday. I will grant you that most of your polls are slanted to the Democrats, but the same polls taken putting Harris up against Nelson showed her trailing by a nearly incredible 25% (mind you, there's no way in hell ANY Republican would lose by that wide a margin -- but it is fair to say she will lose by what I estimate to be 10%, about what Bob Graham defeated troubled incumbent Paula Hawkins by in 1986) and simultaneously showed Jeb Bush beating Nelson by around 10%. That has GOT to be a warning sign, and to ignore it is absolutely perilous for us.
"Check these polls. Jeb won Florida"
When he ran for the open Governorship. He lost to the sitting incumbent (due to voter deception by Lawton Chiles's sleaze machine) in '94. Remember, this is NOT an open Senate seat. Dislodging incumbents is ALWAYS hard.
"W won Florida against IMO massive fraud"
But again, an open situation. He wasn't running against an incumbent.
"Martinez won the Senate"
And barely, at that, after an ugly primary battle. But again, he wasn't running against an incumbent. If Graham had run for a 4th term, Martinez probably would've lost.
"Harris won the House, probably would have beat Matinez and already be in the Senate."
Harris outspent her Democrat opponent for a SAFE Republican seat by a 10-to-1 margin (nearly $3.5 million dollars vs $350k) and won by a paltry 10% (the figure should've been closer to 20% or more -- her predecessor Dan Miller would routinely win by nearly 2 to 1). As Barone noted, she only held the very base of Republican voters while virtually all the Independents and Democrats went for her opponent, a Clintonista. If her performance ran identical to that in '04, I believe she would've lost the Senate race by at least 5%, perhaps even higher. Oddly enough, as the years pass, her appeal seems to lessen amongst even GOP voters statewide in FL. We can't afford to tie ourselves to a candidate that is having as much trouble as she appears to be now, and remains that far behind in fundraising. She's not making the case to remove the non-threatening but unimpressive Nelson (in fact, his low-key style has probably benefitted him greatly, at least it clearly is against Harris).
"We can win with the best, why be too smart by half. Let the voters chose, not Rove. I smell machine politics being attempted in Florida, and it's going to backfire. We may win with another candidate, but it won't be nearly as sweet."
I'd love to see Harris do a "In your FACE !" at the 'Rat slime machine, but it's not going to happen now, unfortunately. I've had my own problems with Rove and some of his boneheaded moves, especially butting into my own state's politics and annointing the old RINO Lamar! Alexander to our Senate seat when we had the excellent Ed Bryant all but warm and ready to hold the seat for us. If Rove really wanted to do us a favor at this point, he'd have the President have a little talk with kid brother and get his ASS into this Senate contest tout de suite.
It would be worth it to get Foley out of the House (but NOT the Senate nomination). Bense is too "country" (no one, sad to say, is going to be elected to the Senate seat coming from Baja Alabama). Weldon, I have no idea how he'd perform statewide. He might make it close, but I just don't see any "magic" coming from him. I liked Dan Webster, but I don't know if he has "it", either.
It's got to be Jeb, and absent of him, Crist, Gallagher, or ex Lt Gov Frank Brogan. But any of them have to move FAST. This race is slipping away from us the longer we delay with getting the big dogs in.
You have every right to point out minuses for Harris, and did a good job in your post. But there are pluses. Hammering Harris reminds me of the hammering Keyes took on FR taking on Obama.
Checked your profile, very nicely done.
Climbing out on a limb..but there is always the possibility that if she stays in late..as she is of course allowed to do, and then at the last minute seems NOT to be getting any traction, well, maybe ole Jeb will jump in at the last second..heeding the pleas of Florida Republicans..indeed..if one were of a Machiavellian mindset, one could almost say this was a perfect strategery..
I hope I'm mistaken, but I thought I read that both Crist and Gallagher are pro-choice on abortion. I think they'd have a hard time beating Bill Nelson statewide if they can't get pro-life conservative Democrats from North Florida to vote for them, not to mention if they don't get a huge GOP turnout.
The 2nd CD held by moderate Democrat Congressman Allen Boyd went for President Bush at a higher percentage than the state as a whole in both 2000 and 2004 (it gave President Bush 52% in 2000 and 54% in 2004). The district now includes all of Panama City's Bay County and many adjoining areas; Speaker Allan Bense is from Panama City and represents it (along with Gulf County and part of Franklin County, also in the 2nd CD) in the state House. I think it would make more sense for Speaker Bense to run against Congressman Boyd, whose voting record, while far less liberal than that of the other Florida Democrat Congressmen, is still far to the left of the district's leanings (Boyd is pro-abortion and his ACU and Christian Coalition ratings are not in the range of a conservative Democrat or even a moderate-to-conservative Democrat). I hope Speaker Bense doesn't pass up an opportunity to get elected to Congress in order to pursue a quixotic run for the U.S. Senate.
Thanks for that info -- I was getting similar info from friends in Florida. That type of speech and not staying behind to shake hands and meet the people is not going to get her elected and that news will spread from county to county.
If I were head of NRSC, I wouldn't be putting any money in her race either.
Dan Quayle syndrome.
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