Posted on 01/09/2006 3:26:09 PM PST by blam
Bird flu cases 'under-estimated'
The team quizzed nearly 46,000 people in Vietnam
The number of cases of bird flu in humans may have been hugely under-reported, a study says. Swedish researchers interviewed nearly 46,000 people from Vietnam, where there have been 87 cases of bird flu, the Archives of Internal Medicine reported.
They found that more than 8,000 had had flu-like symptoms and up to 750 cases could have been down to sick birds.
Under-reporting was possible, experts said, but unlikely to be as much as the Karolinska Institute study suggested.
Lead researcher Anna Thorson said the study - the largest one carried out into bird flu to date - clearly suggested the incidence of the virus in humans was much higher than had been recognised.
The conclusions are interesting but not conclusive, as they didn't take blood samples from the people questioned
But she added: "The results suggest that the symptoms most often are relatively mild and that close contact is needed for transmission to humans."
The news comes as the H5N1 virus has claimed its first human victims in Europe.
It has been confirmed that two children have died in Turkey and reports have suggested more people have been infected by the deadly flu strain which has killed over 60 people in Asia.
The researchers quizzed the people - randomly selected - in the Bavi district of north west Vietnam, which has been hit by bird flu.
Birds
Some 8,149 people - nearly one in five - said they had had flu-like illnesses in the pre-ceding months and over 38,000 said they kept poultry.
The team then asked about contact with sick or dead birds and concluded between 650 and 750 cases of flu could be attributed to bird contact.
The researchers said while they could not be certain bird flu had caused the symptoms, it was the only virus poultry was affected by which could be passed to humans at the time.
But Professor Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease expert at Imperial College London, said there were some problems with the research and the indications were that the true level of under-reporting was likely to be lower.
"The conclusions are interesting but not conclusive, as they didn't take blood samples from the people questioned - so they don't really know whether they were infected with bird flu or not."
He added people who did develop flu-like symptoms were more likely to remember contact with dead birds because of the fear over bird flu.
If true, this would place the 'death-rate' well below the 50% that is presently being reported.
". and up to 750 cases could have been down to sick birds".
COULD.
I totally agree with you. Add to the higher than estimated survival rate the fact that poor people in this region have learned to stay off the radar screens of the officials and you may have significant under reporting.
Someone needs to get the facts, otherwise we are dealing in supposition.
I get a flu shot every year and a pneumonia shot every six years. It has helped me.
By Kate Connolly
The Telegraph (UK)
(Filed: 10/01/2006)
Turkey's health minister had to be protected by police as he was besieged yesterday on a visit to the town where two children have died from bird flu.
Amid snow and a biting wind, Recep Akdag encountered fury from locals who accused the government of neglecting them because they were from the Kurdish minority.
Having prayed with the father of the deceased children and done his best to assure the people of Dogubeyazit that they had not been forgotten, the minister was booed as he tried to board a bus to depart.
The crowd shouted: "We need doctors" and "Go see our villages with the dead chickens where no one dares to step".
A local Kurdish leader said they were receiving help only from sympathetic municipal workers, struggling to visit every house in their white hygiene suits.
He pointed to a group of farmers who had gathered in front of the local council building, clutching bags of chickens. "Look, people are bringing their chickens here themselves," said Mehmet Gultekin. "They are working while the government workers sleep."
The tardy official response to the lethal H5N1 virus will only hasten its spread. The virus, which originated in Asia two years ago, has spread rapidly through bird populations in eastern Turkey and has now infected 14 people, 12 of them children, as far west as the capital Ankara.
All those who have contracted the virus have been in close contact with sick birds. The two children who died were brother and sister. A third sibling has also died but the cause of death in this instance has not been confirmed.
Some 100 people were yesterday awaiting test results on feared bird flu, including 10 from Istanbul, the country's business hub on the doorstep of Europe, where the presence of the disease among poultry has already been confirmed.
It took the minister a week after the first victim was diagnosed to visit Dogubeyazit, situated in a remote mountain region near the Iranian border. He was accompanied by a delegation of experts from the World Health Organization.
The prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pleaded for people to hand over sick birds to the authorities for slaughter.
"I especially request citizens who are still keeping fowl to report to the authorities if they encounter any trouble, and if there is trouble, to opt for slaughter," he said, after reports that some poor farmers were hiding their poultry.
BTTT!
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