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To: wita

"How would a greater life expectancy not effect both populations and thus be a wash in the numbers game where birth rate and survival rate at birth and the first 10 yrs or so be the controlling statistics."

Well, presumably radical life exention would affect all populations(though the Western, more affluent ones first) but Steyn's thesis is that low birthrate equals EXTINCTION. That's true only if the numbers he's using remain the same. They will not, so his calculus about what the state of things will be like in 2050 is based on a false premise.


26 posted on 01/04/2006 5:48:46 AM PST by Neville72 (uist)
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To: Neville72

I would certainly agree that we do not know what will be in 5, 10, 15+ years from now, and things do change, and news today is never as good or as bad as some would like it to be.


31 posted on 01/04/2006 5:55:54 AM PST by wita (truthspeaks@freerepublic.com)
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To: Neville72

No - look at the math again. Longer life expectancy only delays the onset of things, but does not alter by one iota the inevitable fact that there will be a decline in population if fertility falls below the replacement rate.


39 posted on 01/04/2006 6:17:45 AM PST by Tirian
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To: Neville72
>Well, presumably radical life exention would affect all populations(though the Western, more affluent ones first) but Steyn's thesis is that low birthrate equals EXTINCTION. That's true only if the numbers he's using remain the same. They will not

The dynamics of
the "marching moron" theory
of populations

could be applied to
almost any century.
Civilization

somehow moves forward.
Yet every generation
fears the same old crap.

It is so standard
even so-so sci-fi books
call the stuff cliches!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Saturn's Race is the latest in a series of successful collaborations between Niven and Barnes. They have concocted a compelling mixture of adventure, romance and intrigue, and done a better job of developing their characters than in most SF adventure novels. They raise a number of interesting ethical questions regarding the problem of population growth. They paint both Saturn, who imposes his Machiavellian solution, and the third-world governments who seek to perpetuate their population problems, as equally evil. The heroes, fighting to stay alive, have little time to debate the issue. The novel therefore falls short of providing any new insights on these pivotal social issues.

"In addition, although the characters and story remain interesting throughout, most experienced SF readers will find familiar ingredients. The near-future world where the high-tech corporate elite are more powerful than governments has become a cliché, as have conspiracies to stop the "marching moron" phenomenon. So are secret masters of cyberspace, primitive tribes that are morally and ethically superior to modern societies, cybernetically enhanced animals, life extension therapy, and even people able to fall in eternal love before even getting to know each other. (The section where Chaz and Lenore meet uses every formula of romance fiction.)"

52 posted on 01/04/2006 7:19:23 AM PST by theFIRMbss
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