Posted on 01/01/2006 8:43:24 PM PST by LdSentinal
OTTAWA -- The Liberals and the Conservatives both have an equal chance of forming a government in the wake of a RCMP investigation that has dented Liberal support, suggests a new poll.
The survey by Decima Research pegged Liberal support at 32 per cent of those who are likely to vote, compared to 30 per cent who said they intend to back the Conservatives. Given the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, the two parties are in a statistical dead heat.
New Democrats are backed by 18 per cent of the 1,020 respondents to a telephone survey between Dec. 29 and Dec. 30, while 14 per cent say they will vote for the Bloc Quebecois.
The biggest regional shift was recorded in Ontario, where the Liberals' once-commanding lead has shrunk to four percentage points more than the Conservatives at 40-36. The poll's results are considered accurate 19 times out of 20.
"Most voters are telling us that the next three weeks are what really matters and these numbers confirm that this election is up for grabs," said Bruce Anderson, head of Decima Research.
Decima surveyed voters across the country after the RCMP confirmed it had launched a criminal investigation into allegations of a leak from the Finance Department ahead of an announcement on income trusts.
Opposition parties and some market watchers complained a leak on tax rules governing the popular investment vehicles was responsible for a surge in trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange hours before Finance Minister Ralph Goodale made it official. Goodale, who has refused opposition calls to resign, said he will meet with investigators soon.
"We'll be talking next week," he said. "I will go through the series of events that they may be interested in."
The poll's results indicate that the Conservatives and the Liberals will essentially be starting a fresh fight for their lives when campaigning resumes tomorrow.
And here's an IPSOS to add to your Decima...
Tories take the lead
Poll: Harper ahead even in vote-rich Ontario
Eric Beauchesne
CanWest News Service
Monday, January 02, 2006
OTTAWA -- The Conservatives have edged ahead of the Liberals in support, according to poll results released today that also put Stephen Harper's party in the lead in the crucial Ontario region.
If an election were held today, 33% of voters would cast their ballots for the Conservatives, up a percentage point from a week ago, while 32% would vote Liberal, down a point, according to the poll by Ipsos Reid for the National Post, CanWest News Service and Global National.
The difference between the two main contenders is still within the poll's margin of error.
In the key battleground of seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have fallen four points to 36%, giving the Conservatives, who remained at 38%, the edge. The Liberals have won four consecutive elections largely on the strength of their popularity in Canada's most populous province.
Nationally, the NDP have the support of 18% of voters, up two points, while Green party support remains unchanged at 5%. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has slipped two points but would still attract more than half the votes in Quebec with 52% support, a 26-point lead over the Liberals, while Conservative support has jumped to 12% from seven.
"If you look at these numbers today, the Conservatives would have a minority," Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said in an interview yesterday, noting the Conservatives were nine points behind the Liberals two weeks ago.
The change likely reflects the impact of the string of problems and campaign missteps by the Liberals, including the confirmation by the RCMP that it is conducting a criminal investigation into a possible leak of information on the government's income trust decision.
Prime Minister Paul Martin's communications chief Scott Reid also landed the Liberals in trouble for comments suggesting that if parents were given money for child care, as proposed by the Conservatives, some would spend it on popcorn and beer, and a Liberal official resigned after the revelation of a tasteless blog attack on NDP candidate Olivia Chow.
Mr. Harper's party enjoyed a similar slight lead in the polls in the run-up to the 2004 federal election, but many voters -- particularly in Ontario -- jumped back to the Liberals in the closing days of that campaign. The NDP lost a lot of votes as many of its traditional supporters back Mr. Martin rather than take their chances with a Tory government.
This time, the Conservative campaign has both "traction and momentum," according to the Ipsos Reid analysis.
The survey found 42% of Canadians, up five points from last week, including 44% of Ontarians, would be "comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives ... because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check."
Mr. Harper has managed to avoid looking "unreasonable and reactionary" in this campaign, Mr. Bricker said, suggesting that will make it difficult for the Liberals to scare Canadians into voting Liberal, as they did in 2004.
Meanwhile, just 32% of respondents, down seven points, would "be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals ... because they will govern very differently next time due to the lessons they learned from the Gomery inquiry."
To track changes in momentum, Canadians were also asked whether their opinions of the major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the past few weeks.
"Stephen Harper and the Conservatives continue to build positive momentum nationally...," said the Ipsos Reid analysis, noting 36% said their opinion of the party and leader has improved, eight points more than the 28% who said it has worsened.
"Meanwhile, momentum for Paul Martin and the Liberals has dropped substantially," it said, noting only 15% said their opinion of the party and leader has improved, 35 points less than the 50% who say it has worsened.
The telephone survey involved a representative, randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians from Dec. 29 to Dec. 30. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Ten per cent were undecided, refused to say how they would vote or did not know.
© National Post 2006
The Liberals still have an edge in that the Anti-American feelings of the Canadians has been increased recently. This is due to both the US ambassador's statement last month and the war in Iraq.
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