Posted on 12/30/2005 8:25:14 AM PST by nwctwx
No matter how active, there are only two days left in the 2005 season. Take heart.
(Of course we are still on the upswing side of a peak in the cycle so next year will likely be worse, but that's next year.)
It sounds RICH, that's how it sounds. :-)
There are still plenty of greek letters left. Also, once we get to Jan 1 we will be in the 2006 season for all that matters. So, unless we see a bunch of storms in the next 36 hours, we are safe.
Statement as of 1:00 PM AST on December 30, 2005
...Late season tropical storm...the 27th of the year...forms in the
eastern Atlantic...
At 1 PM AST...1700z...the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located
near latitude 25.0 north... longitude 36.9 west or about 1070
miles...1720 km... southwest of the Azores.
Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. A turn
to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Although some strengthening is possible later today...a
weakening trend is expected to begin tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Repeating the 1 PM AST position...25.0 N... 36.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
Kindly include me on whatever weather PING list you have.
I have this thing about storms...
I've never managed to keep a good weather ping list, the one I have for Threat Matrix keeps me busy enough..
NautiNurse or Howlin should be able to add you to the tropical one they keep though.
End Times ........... those under-ocean volcanoes are a trip.
Un-blinkin-beliveable!
Addition to the 'cane ping list ping :)
My dear hubby would blame H.A.R.P. No, he's not loony. Well not TOO loony!
The should let this be the first of next years; it doesn't look good for the SE USA if the waters are this warm. it hasnt even gotten cold enough to knock the leaves off the trees here and that is unusual. Ocean temp is not as cold at the beaches.
Tropical Storm Zeta Special Discussion Number 1
Statement as of Noon EST on December 30, 2005
an elongated area of low pressure...which had its origins in an old
frontal trough...began developing organized convection overnight.
With well-formed convective bands near the center...weak
anticyclonic outflow aloft...and tropical Dvorak classifications...
advisories are initiated on the 27th tropical storm of 2005. The
intial intensity of 45 kt is a compromise between the rule-
constrained t2.5 classifications and the t3.5 data T numbers.
Within 24 hours...westerly shear is expected to increase sharply
over the cyclone...so Zeta probably has a short life ahead of it.
The initial motion is 305/7...as Zeta is moving around a mid-level
low to its southwest. The forward speed is expected to slow as the
westerlies begin to impinge on the cyclone within 12-24 hours.
After that...if the system weakens in response to the shear...it
should turn westward with the low-level flow. The official
forecast is a blend of the medium and shallow BAM models...and is
somewhat slower to the west than the GFS guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 30/1700z 25.0n 36.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 25.5n 37.6w 45 kt
24hr VT 31/1200z 26.0n 38.5w 35 kt
36hr VT 01/0000z 26.0n 40.0w 25 kt...dissipating
48hr VT 01/1200z 26.0n 42.0w 25 kt...remnant low
72hr VT 02/1200z...dissipated
Done.
Not good.
AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ONE AND ALL!......
It's been downright chilly here in S. FL this winter.
susie
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