Posted on 12/29/2005 5:16:31 PM PST by sourcery
Ping
Kurzweil is too optimistic: it won't happen in his lifetime...or mine (dang it).
One point, though. I heard Kurzweil tell Charlie Rose that he (Kurzweil) has the physiology of a 40-year-old. That may (or may not) be true, but he doesn't look like a 40-year-old; he looks like what he is, a man in his mid-50's. Genetics are hard to overcome.
In its current state, Artificial intelligence is just a bag full of interesting tricks (neural networks, expert systems, genetic algorithms, the semantic net, statistical speech recognition, computer vision) without an integrating core that coordinates them all to simulate intelligence. Another big piece (perhaps the biggest) that is still missing is an understanding of how memory works. How do we generate, attach meaning to, and store memories so we can easily recall them? How can we associate one memory with another in a meaningful way? How can we derive new (creative) concepts from networks of existing, rules, memories (images, facts, and observations)? All of these are really deep, hard problems that we will probably not crack in our lifetime.
I read an earlier book by Kurzweil. I seem to recall he associates intelligence almost exclusively with computing power. For the reasons stated above, I think this misses the point.
This idea is more properly an object for fiction.
Ken MacLeod does it better by far than Kurzweil. Start and end with The Cassini Division.
As far as I know, some sci-fi author came up with this idea first...lemme think here, Vernor Vinge. Everyone else basically is riding his coattails on this one.
How do you program a soul?
If it is run on Windows XPeee, it could be a bunch of artificial crushing dummmmiesss.
If it works indeeeeed, we could recall all the muSlimes terror-ists and replace them with kinder frendlier artificial turbanites.
I wonder: Will this sort of thinking affect the appallingly wide influence of The Most Deadly Meme, or is it a logical consequence of it?
You can bet I will consider this at length. I'd like your opinion too.
Yep. Kurzweil is "famous" for a half-baked idea that isn't even his.
Too smart by half.
The theory of Evolution in the Darwinian sense doesn't have all the 'reverse engineering' and intelligent input of Mr. Kurzweil or his predictions. He is the god of his laboratory universe, so to speak.
While he indeed has prodigious accomplishments in numerous fields, what he develelops has nothing to do with 'evolution' but is more along the lines of R&D, Intelligent Design or Creation. The term 'evolution' is wrongly used here.
"The term 'evolution' is wrongly used here."
EVEN AS A THEORY!
I wrote a thesis about this in 1985. The title was MANIAC.
The competitive pressure to couple a machine directly into the brain will be overwhelming. It is therefore a foregone conclusion. Unfortunately, when the human considers himself to be a thinking machine, subject only to supposed "logical facts," such a union becomes unstable, because the ubiquity of communications and access to essentially infinite supporting data will assure that all will inevitably agree upon the same "logical facts." Such a system is inherently unstable, simply because it lacks diversity of approaches among a sea of unknowns. When boundary conditions change, catastrophic errors will inevitably result.
Kurzweil's "Singularity" is a must read. Maybe more so than any book since I read "Atlas Shrugged" in 1975. If not for anything else but for the possible mind-boggling implications on all of our lives it forces you to consider.
Is he an optimist? Sure. Pollyannish? Not really. He sees technological advances affecting us like those in the past. All have their upsides and downsides(i.e. nuclear technology) and he chooses with evidence to believe that mankind will find some way to utilize it without destroying ourselves.
I found his new book incredibly thought provoking and one that I will review in my library over and over in the coming years.
By the way, for those who are interested, Kurzweil will appear on C-Span2 this coming Sunday morning at 7:30 AM CST for a 1:15 presentation.
Happy 2006 to all!
"He now takes his readers to the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the fusion of human brain and machine."
Unfortunately, most human brains will thereafter be unable to avoid pop-ups, en-mail spam, and virii.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.