[Cicero]

As you say. The analogy I find useful is eddies in a stream. Anomolous results can occur in a limited space for a limited time. But like an eddy, they will soon vanish into the main current leading toward the ocean, or heat death.

To think that such eddies can result in all the higher orders of life is to argue that eddies can build on one another, perhaps a million stages of growth, until they produce a lasting result. No, undirected nature doesn't work that way.

If you spent a year flipping coins, you might possibly get a run of 100 heads in a row, although it's extremely unlikely. More likely a run of 15 or 20 would be the best you could do. Evolution is the equivalent of billions of heads in a row.

[thomaswest]

You wrote: "If you spent a year flipping coins, you might possibly get a run of 100 heads in a row, although it's extremely unlikely. ... Evolution is the equivalent of billions of heads in a row."

Reply:
By your "logic", you do not exist. If I calculate the probability that you, Cicero, would be born, would have 'brown eyes' and type O blood (if true), and would post exactly your words at exactly 5:03:39 PM, the probability would be so small as to be ignorable.

So, how do your "probability calculations" allow for you to exist when the probability is infinitesimally small?

[Ichneumon]

If you spent a year flipping coins, you might possibly get a run of 100 heads in a row, although it's extremely unlikely. More likely a run of 15 or 20 would be the best you could do. Evolution is the equivalent of billions of heads in a row.

No, it isn't, but thanks for sharing your misunderstanding of biology with us.

[staytrue]

If you spent a year flipping coins, you might possibly get a run of 100 heads in a row, although it's extremely unlikely. More likely a run of 15 or 20 would be the best you could do. Evolution is the equivalent of billions of heads in a row.

Evolution is a fact in the here and now. You can see it with the bird flu virus.

You are arguing about origin of life. But if you read about lipid bilayers, they are self organizing, often into spheres which are microscopic chemistry experiments. The numbers are astronomical both for spontaneaous life and the number of lipid bilayers available.

Further, there is no incompatibilty with an ID creation billions of years ago and evolution driving us here. There is a real problem with the creationists arguing no evolution ever was at hand and the earth is 10k years old.

[Virginia-American]

The analogy I find useful is eddies in a stream. Anomolous results can occur in a limited space for a limited time. But like an eddy, they will soon vanish into the main current leading toward the ocean, or heat death.

Eddies aren't selected by their success in reproducing. So I don't see the usefulness of your analogy; in fact, it's quite misleading.