I wish I could answer that. Here's the quote from today's WSJ:
Nonetheless, a near-term inversion would likely ratchet up an already elevated anxiety level in the bond market, as investors worry about a cooler housing market, inflation and energy prices, particularly high home-heating bills.
Greg Habeeb, senior portfolio manager with Calvert Funds in Bethesda, Md., says an inversion between two- and 10-year notes "seems in the cards," but he expects the scale of the flip-flop in yields to be minimal, maybe just 0.1 to 0.15 percentage point over the next few months before things turn back around.
A brief, shallow inversion won't signal any marked slowdown in the economy, says Mr. Habeeb, who manages $5 billion in taxable fixed-income assets.
Over the past several decades, the yield curve has had to invert by two percentage points or more before a recession materialized.
FWIW, I've seen it argued that although the 1998 inversion did not cause a recession here, it led to the Russian debt meltdown and the eventual failure of LTCM. We know what kind of impact that had on the markets here.
One reason I'm so skeptical of these BS writers at MarketWatch.com is that it used to be CBS MarketWatch.com and while it was under CBS instead of Dow Jones which purchased it a few months ago, it was obvious these writers were communists in high places!!! (they oughta be fired unceremoniously)
They did their damnedest to drive the markets in the toilet especially during the war rally that started in March '03!!!
Yes we do. The impact on US markets was shallow and very temporary. It was if the markets acted on fear alone instead of any fundamental reason.