[SolidSupplySide]

Dow slumps triple digits as Treasury yield curve inverts (recession indicator)

I remember clearly the recession of 1998.

An inverted yield curve is a good recession indicator except when it's not.

[Gordongekko909]

I believe the term you're looking for is "right once in a row."

[mhx]

Yeah. Me too.

I think it's more of an indicator that the increases in interest rates are going to stop. A lot of times, they stop because the Fed has overshot the target and caused a recession. This time, if they stop in time, maybe that's not a problem (rates were really awfully low before, now they are more normal.)

It would be a great thing if they could just stop raising rates now, and leave things alone and let the economy coast for a few years without screwing around with it.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

I felt the recession pass. It's over already. Everyone can relax now.

[Moonman62]

It has to be inverted for more than a few days and by more than just a few hundredths of a point. I believe 7 out of the last 8 recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. It's a great indicator because it shows how out of control and determined the Federal Reserve is to cause a recession.

[nickcarraway]

Take into account the time of year and thin trading.