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Dow slumps triple digits as Treasury yield curve inverts (recession indicator)
MarketWatch.com (by Dow Jones) ^
| 12/27/05
| Tomi Kilgore
Posted on 12/27/2005 1:36:38 PM PST by SierraWasp
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To: dubyaismypresident
Doesn't it still take 3 days to settle (t+3) in which case tax losses taken tomorrow will be settled in the new year. Trade date, not settle date, is used by IRS.
To: dubyaismypresident
If they hadn't overreached in their raising of short term rates, there wouldn't be a yield curve inversion.
In its place we would have had currency devaluation and exchange driven inflation.
22
posted on
12/27/2005 2:03:40 PM PST
by
ARCADIA
(Abuse of power comes as no surprise)
To: Beagle8U
You'll see that ALL the time EXCEPT when a notably strong sector rotation is going on...under "normal" conditions one S&P point is worth 7-10 DJIA points. Eg; they most generally work in direct tandem, together, one doesn't "forecast" or "lag" the other.
I agree with you, though, something weird is going on. (if that's what you're saying!)
To: SolidSupplySide
This question is like asking why Daddy won't let Junior run the power saw.
24
posted on
12/27/2005 2:06:09 PM PST
by
xcamel
(a system poltergeist stole it.)
To: SierraWasp
It does not indicate recession. It simply indicates that investors think interest rates will be lower in the future.
To: xcamel
It'll all get bought back in about ummm... 31 days.
Actually if they were smart they would have filed with the IRS a certain way last year where they can sell losers and buy back any time they want. The 30 day rule is not in this type of filing. If I remember right it's called Mark to Market, and please correct this anybody who knows for sure.
26
posted on
12/27/2005 2:09:56 PM PST
by
jwh_Denver
(New Year's Resolution #1. Try to cut to half those looks my wife gives me. .....punt.)
To: Dog Gone; Ernest_at_the_Beach; tubebender; NormsRevenge; hedgetrimmer; ElkGroveDan; calcowgirl; ...
I wonder what effect this may have on the market for Schwartzenegger's massive bondage for infrastructure???
27
posted on
12/27/2005 2:12:06 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: q_an_a
"speculators are going to pay for betting against the American dream in 2006."I like the way you think!!!
28
posted on
12/27/2005 2:17:14 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: SierraWasp
One good result of all this...
Plunging bond yields. Should give a nice boost to the housing market in January, especially in New York City, when the record bonuses will be spent.
To: montag813
The smart ones ain't spending their bonuses on NYC real estate.
30
posted on
12/27/2005 2:18:46 PM PST
by
durasell
(!)
To: SierraWasp
the only time in the last 30 years that an inverted yield curve wasn't followed by a recession was in 1998, I beg to differ. We were in recession in 2000/2001
31
posted on
12/27/2005 2:21:05 PM PST
by
Go Gordon
(I don't know what your problem is, but I bet its hard to pronounce)
To: Brilliant
It simply indicates that investors think interest rates will be lower in the future."What? Short term rates, or long term rates? Wouldn't either of those rates becoming lower stimulate the economy? Then why is this Dow Jones owned news service speading such stupendous lies???
32
posted on
12/27/2005 2:24:31 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: Brilliant
Oh! And wouldn't lowering interest rates seen in the future make the bond market go nuts with glee???
33
posted on
12/27/2005 2:28:03 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: dubyaismypresident
34
posted on
12/27/2005 2:28:30 PM PST
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of Dependence on Government!)
To: jwh_Denver
"Mark to market" is (in this case, for this reference) a method of accounting for stock/security gains and losses which is more in line with the way a frequent trader works. The trading dept of a Goldman Sachs or Lehman almost certainly works in this fashion; an individual trader has to apply to use the method a solid year or more in advance (eg; you cannot decide retroactively that you were a daytrader last year and use the method) There are a number of implications, not all of which are clearly beneficial or detrimental. For one, I believe you're correct, that the "wash sale" rule need not apply. Also, I think the $3K limit on capital losses/yr doesn't apply. One who elects this method may also cut themselves off from cap gain treatment on stock gains. Also, I think the M2M election is irrevocable. As usual, there is a highly readable/sarc IRS publication detailing the particulars.
To: Recovering_Democrat
36
posted on
12/27/2005 2:31:48 PM PST
by
durasell
(!)
To: Attention Surplus Disorder
That was my point (poorly worded) that working in tandem at those % it does forecast a trend.
37
posted on
12/27/2005 2:34:14 PM PST
by
Beagle8U
(An "Earth First" kinda guy ( when we finish logging here, we'll start on the other planets.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
Time to panic.Nah, I'm keeping my cool.
If the economy could grow as well as it did in 2005 despite natural disasters and very high energy prices then 2006 should be at least decent. If you haven't noticed, energy prices are tanking.
38
posted on
12/27/2005 2:34:27 PM PST
by
NeoCaveman
(If we ever banned air conditioning, I think people would move back, - Bob Bennet Ohio GOP)
To: Recovering_Democrat
Time to panic. I am always paniced. I am typing this from my Y2K shelter.
To: SierraWasp
Oh my, Market falls to its lowest level in...its lowest close in 2 weeks... FReepers hardest hit!!!
40
posted on
12/27/2005 2:39:14 PM PST
by
tubebender
(You can't make Chicken Soup from Chicken Poop...)
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