Permafrost Could Be Melting, Study Finds

AP on Yahoo ^ | 12/26/05 | AP

[NormsRevenge]

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Climate change could thaw the top 11 feet of permafrost in most areas of the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, altering ecosystems across Alaska, Canada and Russia, according to a federal study.

Using supercomputers in the United States and Japan, the study calculated how frozen soil would interact with air temperatures, snow, sea ice changes and other processes. The most extreme scenario involved the melting of the top 11 feet of permafrost, or earth that remains frozen year-round.

"If that much near-surface permafrost thaws, it could release considerable amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and that could amplify global warming," said lead author David Lawrence, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "We could be underestimating the rate of global temperature increase."

The study was published Dec. 17 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and presented earlier in the month at a science conference in San Francisco.

A permafrost researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, however, disagrees that the thaw could be so large. Alaska's permafrost won't melt that fast or deep, said Vladimir Romanovsky, who monitors a network of permafrost observatories for the Geophysical Institute.

If air temperatures increase 2 to 4 degrees over the next century, permafrost would begin thawing south of the Brooks Range and start degrading in some places on Alaska's Arctic slope, he said. But a prediction that melting will reach deeply over the entire region goes too far, he said.

The computer climate model didn't consider some natural factors that tend to keep the permafrost cold, Romanovsky said. For example, deeper permafrost, largely untouched by recent warming at the surface, would have an influence.

Lawrence said he hopes to collaborate with Romanovsky to fine-tune future studies to deal with those deeper layers.

[Osage Orange]

I could be the cookie monster....

[ZULU]

Well, if you want to get technical, it should be Hippopotamoi and Hippopotamos from the Greek - "Hippos" Horse and Potamos "River" the -i suffix is a latin masculine Nominative plural and isn't used for Greek stem words, including Anglicized Greek Stems. The -oi suffix is the Greek masculine Nominative plural noun suffix.

[SlowBoat407]

HA! I drew you out!

Thanks for the correction. I love learning new stuff. "Mesopotamia" now makes a lot more sense as a word: "between rivers"

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

LOL!

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

Anchorage doesn't have a permafrost problem (that I know of).

This picture shows the utilidors (utility corridors) in Inuvik NWT. They are above-ground wood-covered corridors for the water, sewer, etc. The water is preheated, so it won't (often) freeze in the distribution pipes. Notice that the houses are elevated, with an unheated crawl space beneath them, to preserve the permafrost.

[Hoodat]

It's Bush's fault.

Bush lied - glaciers died.

[Clara Lou]

Thanks for posting the pic. I've never seen an arrangement like that.

[HamiltonJay]

A warmer earth is a GOOD thing folks...... at least for mammals.

[pepsionice]

The trouble here is that there are actually people who believe that the earth stands still and climate is not to change nor was it ever intended to change. The logic here...is illogic. This grand earth...for all practical purposes...has never stayed the same. It changes constantly, and cannot be held at one particular climate. It truely amazes me that countess numbers of college-educated people believe otherwise.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

I lived in the Yukon for 25 years -- mostly in Whitehorse, which just has a bit of discontinuous permafrost. We had a cement basement in one house, then wood-frame basements on concrete slabs (below the frost line) the rest of the time.

Your area must have good drainage, which makes the permafrost much easier to deal with.

I know what you mean about extremes of climate -- years ago, I worked outside in that weather. You start to understand why "Sam McGee from Tennessee" just wanted to be cremated.

[brytlea]

LOL

[Nick5]

Good for some, extremely bad for others--like any other simple fact. All what you make of it.

[absolootezer0]

but isn't global warming a good thing? less of a need for heating oil!

[Casloy]

according to a federal study.

yeah, federal study. Now there is something to hang your hat on. And let me guess, the only way to stop this melting is through some expensive federal program.

[Eva]

There was an article in the WSJ that said that the change in the ocean currents that are driving the warm currents away from the northern shores is a result of the Phillippine volcano, Pinajaro. The article went on to state that if present trends continue, Great Britain could have a Siberian-like climate, sometime in the future. According to the article, this is anything but global warming.

[Robert A Cook PE]

So, now tell me again how this works.

A (theoretical) 2 to 4 degree RISE in temperature is supposed to (somehow) melt permafrost that is more than 10 degrees BELOW the accepted freezing point of ice?

Never mind that we are ALREADY at 50% of the supposed max CO2 increase postulated by the absurd limits of the Kyoto treaty, yet have STILL not seen any appreciable rise in global temperature.

So, if increasing CO2 (to half its regulated maximum!) DID NOT affect global temperature changes by a measurable amount, how is limiting CO to the treaty maximum (and at the same time destroying the US economy!) going to prevent further increase in global temperature?

[Robert A Cook PE]

Anchorage (as far as I can tell!) is waaaaaaaaaaay too far south to have permafrost conditions.

[Cementjungle]

Permafrost Could Be Melting, Study Finds

Great! Just think of the benefits; digging fence posts, basements, etc. would be much easier and less-costly now!