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To: new yorker 77; All
Dow's glide to 11,000 looks smooth

I don't hold myself out as a market or economic expert, but this kind of headline, and the thinking behind it, makes no sense to me. If there were a strong consensus that the market is going to 11,000, why isn't it there now? To illustrate: let's assume you sell corn. The current price is $10. If you were convinced that next week it would go to $11, why would you sell it now at $10?

There is a balance of sellers and buyers in any market. If the market is under 11,000, it's because there are people willing to sell it at that price now. They are obviously unconvinced it is going to 11,000 any time soon.

9 posted on 12/17/2005 8:57:24 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest (Watching the Today Show since 2002 so you don't have to.)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
If there were a strong consensus that the market is going to 11,000, why isn't it there now?

You are more of an expert than you think. The only known factor suggesting a Dow goose on Monday is the favorable decision for Pfizer on the Lipitor patent. But as you suggest, no one waited around until Monday to bid the stock up. It popped 11% after hours on Friday.

Qualification to the above: Consensus in itself doesn't change stock prices. Only "urgency of bid" does (i.e. money at the right time and place). This is why sentiment as an indicator often fails. People can say one thing but fail to put money where their mouth is.

63 posted on 12/17/2005 12:18:24 PM PST by steve86 (@)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
That's not really how it works.

End of the year rallies are the norm. The Dow is close to 11,000 and should really have no trouble meeting and even exceeding it, until the end of the year profit taking begins; if it hasn't already...which is WHY there are sellers.

82 posted on 12/17/2005 10:55:40 PM PST by nopardons
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