Yes -
UBL is most likely North of Peshawar - In the NW Frontier or maybe in Kashmir (an area that is off limits to outsiders and home to numerous Kashmiri militant groups, some of which are deeply intertwined with al-Qaeda.)
Capturing UBL in the NW Frontier is such an extremely difficult task most just can't comprehend. We are talking roughly 40,000 square miles of the most rugged terrain on earth! - Furthermore the Afghan / Pakistan border stretches 1,500 miles—roughly the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver (just to get a clue).
Throughout the NW Frontier (and South toward Baluchistan) Pashtun tribes are completely in control. A group of warlords who are autonomous from any centralized Gov't - Pakistan troops (Gov't troops) haven't controlled these areas in about for the last 70 years -
Again the terrain in this region of the world is some of the most brutal on earth -Making any sustained operations a complete nightmare. Not to mention having to conduct any of these operations completely in the "black" (for a variety of reasons). And not just because we don't want other Nations to know....but because our operators stick out like a sore thumb in this part of the World.
The fact is Zarqawi continues to remain alive and free in Iraq - Yet there we have over 155,000 U.S. Soldiers, control of 90% + of the Country, the majority support of the people of Iraq who have twice voted for freedom and Intel sources that far out value what we have in the border regions of Pak/Stan -
In Stan we have less then 19,000 U.S. Soldiers, where only a fraction of those are actually near the border regions and even a smaller fraction of those can operate effectively there for sustained periods.
The key to bagging Zarqawi (in Iraq) is to continue to shorten our OODA loop (which we are doing) - The key to UBL in stan is the same (to a lesser degree) but more importantly waiting on that one piece of HUMIT that gives him away - Then put our shooters on that location stat -
I might also add look at a map.
my guess is that they do not move alot. even though it would make sense for them to change locations alot to avoid someone giving the US a tip as to where they are, there has to be alot of risk in moving OBL and AZ from place to place.
"Throughout the NW Frontier (and South toward Baluchistan) Pashtun tribes are completely in control. A group of warlords who are autonomous from any centralized Gov't - Pakistan troops (Gov't troops) haven't controlled these areas in about for the last 70 years -"
Thanks for the reasoned explanation. That was what I hoped to learn.
So is Pakistan guilty of harboring terrorists: the Pashtun tribes and al Qaida remnants?
September 20, 2001 Bush clearly indicated we would not tolerate "harboring."
Another item. Pre-invasion of Afghanistan, we heard all about reading license plates from satellite photos, about heat giving away human locations.