Regarding your question with your friends, my opinion would be that the conspiracy would be too vast to succeed. By the time it could be confirmed, the possibility of such a strike would be vetted at multiple levels, too many too allow such a conspiracy to succeed.
Just my opinion.
I'm also not so certain people would panic. 2036 may as well be infinity, for most TV-addled brains.
Nah, movie and tv-buffs know we'd find a way to destory the damager just seconds before it would be too late.
You know, it's just- after a hurricane hit, our government with advanced warning, couldn't airlift a bunch of black people out of New Orleans??!! Are they going to come to our rescue in 30 years? Ha. If anything, I'm sure they'll find a way to make it worse. Wobble it right into Disneyworld