Skip to comments.Why Democrats have no chance in 2008 Part II
Posted on 12/09/2005 5:47:58 AM PST by jmaroneps37
In this second installment of a three part essay the case for general defeat of the nations minority party is continued.
To recap, these issues were covered in part I.
*America self identifies 35% to 18% conservative over liberal. Voters see the Democrats as socialists and reject their ideas.
*The war in Iraq has little emotional impact on Americans. People are not running out to demonstrate for or against it. It will not be an issue Democrats can move people with. It will be a slight plus for us.
*Big Labors pull back from the Democrats will hurt them. In some races it will be the difference, no matter how the media will try to spin it.
*Howard Dean has crossed the line from not helpful to hurtful. His antics will continue to drive people away. This is why we are up 2 to 1 in money raised so far this year.
No voter fraud means trouble in many locations for Democrats
Last year when the South Dakota GOP plugged up the voter fraud on the States Indian Reservations John Thune was able to take the seat he was cheated out of by Tim Johnson. Although this was accomplished by closer control at the polls and turning Russell Means, the principle is the same: Stop voter fraud with photo ids or other methods and Democrats cant win in many locations.
The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) is beginning to have an effect. Democrat claims that photo id equals Jim Crow are mere straw clutches that will not hold back the tide of change.
Remember the ridiculous extension of time to vote in St. Louis in 2000? Remember the stories about Democrat Federal judges allowing homeless voters to give park benches as their home address in Philadelphia? You remember Philadelphia? Thats the city where there were many districts reporting MORE than 100% of the registered voters having cast ballots in 2000? Remember these stories, because they will be looked back at by the Democrats as remnants of the good old days.
As the new media gets stronger, voter fraud will continue to decline. The recently revealed FBI sting operation into voter fraud conducted in rural West Virginia will damage Senator Robert Byrds re-election chances. Dont be fooled by his big number wins in the past. He has never had a tough race. This time he will. The chilling effect an investigation into voter fraud produces will have an effect.
Will there still be Democrat voter fraud in the future? Of course, but it will not be widespread. Those days are over. Those that hold otherwise have not thought it through well enough.
Please don't think this is not important. If this were the end of the list it would be enough to stop the Democrats cold. But of course there is more.
The loss of Louisiana after the investigation
This won't go away. The investigation into who dropped the ball in the Gulf region after Katrina is taking place. Moreover, it won't be good for Louisianas Democrats. Governor Blancos numbers are at their lowest point. There are several fatal problems for the Democrat party in Louisiana.
No amount of rathered evidence will be able to clean up the fact that Democrat incompetence and corruption was at the heart of the sorry response to Katrina. Louisiana and New Orleans sad response will be established as the cause of New Orleans refugees fleeing and staying away. Those people are the automatic voters Democrats need to win statewide office in Louisiana. Ask Mary Landrieu about this.
The Black population in New Orleans has not come back and will not come back. Even if these folks wanted to come back, where would they go? The nature of the Democratic Party is such that wherever these refugees went, the local Democrats have already registered them as new voters., The fate of the Democrat Party in New Orleans is sealed. THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE VOTING. No one will vote in Texas and New Orleans this time around. The first result of this exodus will be seen in the election of a white Republican mayor in New Orleans in February.
Bad information leads to bad decisions
Not having learned anything from last years adventures in creative reporting, the Democrats are falling into the same trap again. The minority party is giving every indication that it intends to make the war in Iraq an issue in the next cycle. Let them. The old media can't lie enough to cover up the successes in Iraq. A new poll recently published in Washington Post indicates that the old media is beginning to lose this battle. Among those surveyed, 70% agreed that troop morale is hurt by Democrat criticism of the war. Moreover, significant number, 44 percent said morale is hurt "a lot," by the Democrats antics according to the survey by RT Strategies, a bipartisan firm comprised of a Democrat, and a Republican pollster. Of very great significance, 55 % of registered Democrats believe criticism hurts morale. Not surprisingly 21% of Democrats, the crowd that probably believes George Bush beams messages into their heads, believes the criticism HELPS morale. RT Strategies also found that Americans are skeptical of Democratic complaints about the war. Only 3 of 10 respondents believe the Democrats are sincere in their attacks. Most believed the Democrats are acting only to "gain a partisan political advantage." Of greater significance in the results of this survey is the fact that just 16% want an immediate withdrawal without regard for the circumstances. To underscore the level of phoniness in the Democrats position on withdrawal, this is 16 times greater than the number of Democrats in congress that voted for immediate pullout. The point here is that every poll published by the mainstream media, tells us the Democrat position is the dominate position on the war. Every poll gives the impression that Americans are talking about the Iraq war every day whenever they gather. Would that this were the case. The lack of turn out at anti war or even pro war rallies shouts louder than any push poll printed in the New York Times. The Democrats will push this as an issue and it will cost a few blue dog Democrat seats. Already, Democrat Congressman Earl Promeroy of North Dakota is crying over Howard Deans crazy, Poll driven comments about the war being not winnable. They will impale themselves on this next issue November because it is bogus. More and more holes in the plantation fence While it is admittedly a slow process, Blacks are seeing the two parties for what they are.
The new media is beginning to penetrate Black communities all over the country. Last year George Bush may have shown just a 2point improvement among Black voters over 2000, but there were pockets of double digit performances in Georgia Maryland and California. Once the over all percentage of Blacks voting Republican moves to even 12 % as a steady number, the Democrats will begin to feel the ill effects.
The Democrats have treated Blacks like plantation field hands forever. The Democrats controlled the South during the era of slavery and were the authors of the Jim Crow Laws to continue to enslave Blacks even after losing the Civil war. When they were the majority party, the Democrats held back civil rights progress for more than one hundred years. Some Black voters are beginning to take this history into account. A few are starting to jump over the fence. Some Black voters are starting to listen to the GOP and like what they hear.
This situation has not escaped the notice of Democrats all over the country. Some have lost their senses over the impending loss of control over Black folks.
In a desperate response, the Democrats have now started to make racial attacks on Marylands Lieutenant Governor Mike Steele who, as a Black man, is committing the grievous sin of running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican. Consider that for a moment. The self- described party of the underdog is conducting a vicious racially motivated attack, that includes throwing Oreo cookies at Mr. Steele, because he is daring to run as a Republican. This will NOT help them keep the plantation gates closed. The Democrats in Maryland are right to be worried. Things are getting worse in a voter demographic that should be money in the bank for the minority party. Oreo cookies thrown at Mike Steele speak very clearly about how much he scares them. In another development on this front, recent news reports tell us that Derrick Wallace, head of the Orange County Florida NAACP, has switched parties -- to become a Republican. "I've thought about this for two years," Wallace said, just a few hours after returning from the elections office. "This is not a decision I made yesterday." When an NAACP switches parties things are getting bad. The Democrats loss of total and unquestioned control of Blacks was underscores last month by the huge ass kicking New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg put on Freddy Ferrer. This is the very heart of Democrat central and it cant be ignored. Moreover Bloombergs votes were tallied totally on the Republican line. There were NO minor parties carrying Bloombergs name. The Blacks that voted for Bloomberg, voted for him on the Republican line and he got 50% of their vote. Where else has a Republican gotten 50% of the Black vote? The pain of this first crack in the solid wall of Black support will be felt by the Democrats for years to come.
Hmm, that district looks fine to me
The effects of Republican controlled re-districting has resulted in a condition where only 20 or so House seats can be seen as "competitive" By any measure, however, there are 2 Democrats at a disadvantage for every Republican at a disadvantage. The number of Congressional seats won last cycle with 55% or less shows 2 to 1 Democrat. The number of seats won with 53% or less shows 2 to 1Democrat. The number of seats won with 51% or less shows 2 to 1Democrat. The number of Congressional seats won with less than 55% by a Democrat in a Red state is twice the number of such seats won by Republicans in Blue states. All of this means the Democrats will lose seats next year. Current conditions put at least three Democrat Congressmen in clear inescapable danger. John Barrow 12th Georgia, Charlie Melancon 3rd Louisiana, and Chet Edwards 17th Texas come to mind. Doom and gloom, rooting for the terrorists, doesnt sell so well Last year John Kerry told us we are in the worst economy since Herbert Hoover. People might have shouted and applauded at his events, but those that read his words or saw him on television didnt believe him. They had only to look out their windows and see the building boom that was taking place in their own towns and all over the country. Statements like that made him look desperate and petty.
Nevertheless, as miserably as that line failed the Democrats, through their lapdogs in the media, they continue to denigrate every piece of good economic news with an obligatory yes, but. They never allow the possibility of any piece of good news on the economy or anything else. Never. Never is there good news on anything, ever. People recognize this constant carping and generally reject it. When the ballot booth curtain closes, people just dont vote based on whether somebody they dont know is working or not. They voted for themselves. Political historians know this and this is why 1994 is noted as an exception and not the rule.
This position will come back to bite the Democrats just as sure as night follows day. People grow weary of the constant barer of bad news. As is the habit of the human animal, we more often than not shoot the messenger, especially when the bad news is so frequently demonstrably false.
The advent of talk radio, Fox News and the Internet means that voters can educate themselves. No longer do Americans have to rely on Uncle Walter, the most trusted man in America. We now understand that Uncle Walter lied to us about Viet Nam and his descendants are lying to us about Iraq and everything.
Everything the modern Democrat Party says and does shouts We hate American and wish America would lose in Iraq! Voters know this. They recognize that with only on exception, every Democrat is rooting for failure in the war. Americans might not be vocal about this but they really dont like people who dont like America. Maybe the tinfoil hat crowd does, but Democrats need real Americans to vote for them. The way they act when the subject is America, tells us what they really think. Saying hateful things about America wont move people to turn out to vote for them.
Rooting for Bin Laden, saying the war is un-winnable, being associated with groups that send death wishes to wounded soldiers and Marines wont work for the Democrats.
Winning enough seats to re-take the Congress is effectively out of reach for a party that hates the idea of America. Democrats are not comfortable with the God and Country founding principles America is built on.They can try to fool people but in the end they always show themselves for what they are. Consider John Murtha. People thought he was a reasonable critic of the war and then he started to speak the way he does.
With few exceptions, they can not sway Americans to vote for them. They can only win elections in districts that are filled with the type of America hating skunks that elect people like Nancy Pelosi.
Scandals can carry you just so far
The doom and gloom wouldnt even work if it were true. There is a theory in Behavioral Science that holds that When the stimulus is constant, it disappears. We saw this in the Clinton years. Scandal after true and real scandal tumbled out of the Whitehouse, but nothing much came from them. He beat impeachment and gave us all the finger by selling pardons as he walked out the door.
The preponderance of scandals made us numb to them. They were so frequent and shocking that finally they all ran into one another and we just couldnt keep up.
The Democrats will fall into the same trap. The name Delay means something to about 15 in 100 people. The name Cunningham means Richie Cunningham from Happy Days to all but a few people. Scandals that have to be explained are like jokes that have to be explained. Neither works very well.
Sorry for the eye strain. I spaced this out but the site compressed it in places. Also, of course it should have said 2006 not 2008. Haste makes waste but this essay had to be updated so many times that a detail or two got by me.
Great work...I think you are right on...but we can never let down our guard...the Democrats will still fight...and cheat...the counter to your article is how Lame our current Republicans have become...we need to pass some laws...and change Social Security, taxes, cut spending, etc. We are not doing so well either.
Lots of good data here, but any that does not fit the MSM's version of the RAT agenda will be buried. The people who need most to hear it, those who "hold their nose" and vote RAT won't have a clue.
Could you post a link to Part I?
Create a great Freeper day!
Good analysis. Just hope it comes true. I vote in PA (although in the military) and can sense that when I was home one Democrat will probably win and that is Casey. Pennsylvanians love him!!!! They really have a hard time with Senator Santorum right now. But hopefully he will begin his campaign and act like he is running and win.
bookmarked and bttt
Marvelous essay. Thank you.
I agree with much of what you said, except that imho Americans are greatly emotionally invested in Iraq. Forget about the wacko Dem fringe that has hijacked the party. I think everyone who is rational knows that Iraq must be won decisively and we must achieve our goals there. I also believe that the more Americans think about it, the more they realize that there will be several more wars before the war on terror is over.
Syria and Iran immediately come to mind. But the main thing that libs don't realize and conservatives do, is that this war is for all the marbles. We have choice but to carry on. The Bush lied nonsense really has no traction. Most people don't believe it, don't care even if it was true and realize the gravity of the situation. It is really the dems who are left with a gravitas vacuum.
Finally, the poll numbers reflecting badly on Bush and the War are meaningless. War just like politics is a roller coaster. At one moment everything seems okay and you're calm and in the next moment, you terrified and sure you're gonna die. Not too mention the ennui that historically sets in during second terms.
Finally, LA is now a red state. They lost 600k voters minimum most of who,if they have any sense, will never come back. They will no longer need to send school buses to the 9th ward to round up all those dem votes.
These constant Iraq polls mean nothing. Elections decide politics, not polls. To the extent the Dems can keep Iraq an issue, the 06 election will turn on how we're doing there in November 06, not before. All the administration has to do is to make sure a balanced story gets reported over here.
My major disagreement with the essay is with election fraud. With motor-voter and all the "absentee" and early voting allowed now, with the lack of authentication required of voters when voting, and with the possibility of electronic tampering, there is more opportunity for fraud than ever. And Dems are better at that then Repubs can dream of being.
Government employees, state, federal and local comprise a huge number. Even within the private sphere, we have non-profits dependent upon government grants, private firms dependent upon government contracts, their employees; trial lawyers, teachers and even seniors many times find themselves not directly benefitting from GDP growth.
For the "rising tide" to raise your boat, it has to be IN THE WATER.
The days are gone when we can look to stewardship of the economy as something which will garner us votes. We have passed a numerical tipping point, in my opinion. Though I agree with nearly everything you say, we must admit that we have watched as eight years of Republican governance has EXACERBATED our problem in this regard.
We are sowing the seeds of our own destruction by declaring a Republican administration a success which has not REDUCED the size of government.
where is part I?
As the new media gets stronger, voter fraud will continue to decline.
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