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To: West Coast Conservative

The scenario is so similar to pre-Iraq that it fascinates me. You have a tyrannical regime covering up what is an obviously exposed nuclear weapons program...hello Sadam!

The thing I like about Iran is that it is not entirely full of Muslim extremists. No, not at all. The majority of the population in Iran is Persian and their culture is much more closely related to European culture than it is tied to Arabic. These people despise the Islamic regime in charge.

Does anyone else agree with me when I opine that these educated Tehranian scholars will seize the initiative if Israel, the United States, or both counties land their troops within Iranian boundaries?


4 posted on 12/05/2005 10:30:15 PM PST by ManOnAMission_01 ("Don't die for your country...let the enemy die for his.")
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To: ManOnAMission_01

They're acting so crazy they must be counting on the Democrats to help them the way they are helping the terrorists in Iraq.


5 posted on 12/05/2005 10:34:07 PM PST by Moonman62 (Federal creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it)
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To: ManOnAMission_01; nopardons
Article excerpt from Financial Sense online Nov 10/2005

Budget Deficit Balloons

Iran’s budget deficit grew by 70%, according to recent estimates. According to Iran Focus.com: “There has been a whopping 69 percent increase in Iran’s state budget deficit during the current year, according to an official government report. The report was based on estimates for the current Iranian calendar year, ending March 20, and the figure was expected to rise even further by the end of the year, the semi-official daily Jomhouri Islami wrote on Saturday. The sharp surge in the country’s annual deficit means that in the currently year the government will be lagging more than 71 trillion Rials – approximately 7.1 billion dollars. Last year, the state deficit figures were considerably lower, standing at 42 trillion Rials.”

What makes this an interesting figure is that “The widening deficit comes despite a large increase in revenue as a result of high oil prices on the international markets. “

Stock Market Tumbles

There are significant signs of a complete lack of confidence in the government from economic and financial circles. Iran Focus reported: “Hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who took office in August, had promised that he would reduce state deficit and work to increase the national turnover as president. But the rising tensions in Iran’s external relations since the hard-liners’ power sweep in June have had a markedly negative impact on the economy. The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been badly affected, dropping 20 percent since Ahmadinejad’s election in June. Some experts have put the value of capital flight since June at a staggering 200 billion dollars.”

Capital Flight Reported

$700 billion have left Iran since 1980, and it’s getting worse, as government officials and even clergymen are reportedly preparing for the day when they have to flee the country.
Starting in June, 2005, reports surfaced that the wealthy in Iran were having major concerns about the new president. And by October, reports of significant amounts of capital flight were appearing in reliable sources.

According to Geostrategy Direct, in a report by Bill Gertz: “Iran might be talking tough, but the word on the streets of Teheran is that prominent Iranians are running scared. Iranian businessmen are smuggling their assets out of the country, fearful of a U.S. attack that would topple the Iranian regime.”

According to Gertz: “Iranian officials report a massive outflow of capital, much of it to Central Asia and the Gulf. Iranians are emptying their bank accounts and establishing companies for the day when they need to flee their homeland because of an economic collapse or U.S. invasion. The figures being reported by Iranian regime officials are astounding. In September, Hashemi Shahraudi, director of the Higher Judiciary Council in Teheran, said Iranians have sent $700 billion abroad since 1980. Shahraudi said the capital flight has turned from a trickle to a flood over the past year.”

The Iranian government is in full attack and damage control mode. “Already, Teheran has ordered government-owned banks to ban loans of more than 300 million riyals, or about $45,000. Teheran's fear is that private companies will borrow from banks to buy dollars and euros. Iranian businessmen are willing to invest in their native country only when Teheran pledges not to impose its laws. So, 3,500 Iranian companies operate in so-called free trade zones on the islands of Kish and Qeshm in the Gulf. In all of Iran, 18,000 private companies are registered with the Finance Ministry for tax purposes. Officials acknowledge that a key reason many others refuse to register their businesses is fear of government expropriation.”

Here is the kicker. “What officials don't say is that senior members of the Teheran regime own many of these offshore and foreign-based companies. Indeed, the trend seen by Iranian and foreign sources is that senior Iranian officials, regime figures and even clergy are preparing a nest egg abroad just in case. *************************************************

Show me the Money!!...LOL

8 posted on 12/05/2005 10:59:19 PM PST by Light Speed
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To: ManOnAMission_01
Does anyone else agree with me when I opine that these educated Tehranian scholars will seize the initiative if Israel, the United States, or both counties land their troops within Iranian boundaries?

I have no idea if this is a realistic possibility. I do know that Kurds within Iran's borders are chafing under Tehran's heavy hand. Taken with your comments, this could point to the chance for regime change if the right conditions arise. I'm hoping for anything that might dispense with the Mullahs in time to prevent atomic weapon manufacturing in Iran. However, I wouldn't plan on it.

Here are some comments from Peter Brooke on the topic:

Iran's rulers are deathly afraid that the freedoms taking root in Iraq/Afghanistan will highlight the Iranian revolution's abject political, economic and social failures to Iran's increasingly discontented "baby-boomers."

Iran's young people -- 60 percent under the age of 30 and born after the revolution -- are increasingly going to look at the political, economic and social freedoms enjoyed by Iraqis and Afghans and ask: "Why not us?
"
12 posted on 12/05/2005 11:26:38 PM PST by PerConPat (A politician is an animal which can sit on a fence and yet keep both ears to the ground.-- Mencken)
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To: ManOnAMission_01
Does anyone else agree with me when I opine that these educated Tehranian scholars will seize the initiative if Israel, the United States, or both counties land their troops within Iranian boundaries?"

They may be more European like than Arabic but they are still Muslims.

17 posted on 12/06/2005 12:31:28 AM PST by Old Seadog (Inside every old person is a young person saying "WTF happened?".)
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To: ManOnAMission_01
The majority of the population in Iran is Persian and their culture is much more closely related to European culture than it is tied to Arabic.

Well, that explains a lot. If the majority of the Iranian population is more like European culture, no wonder they have allowed the Mullahs to sieze control! Peace in our time and all of that....

20 posted on 12/06/2005 6:30:26 AM PST by Thermalseeker
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