The district is only marginally GOP, and becoming more marginal with time.
I understand that DeLay won with only 55% of the vote in his first run in the revised district. It took in some of the democrat votes if I recall correctly. The democrat got only 41%.
Now I agree that if DeLay continues to have legal problems he'll be out. But barring that I think he'll win even against a carpetbagger like Nick Lampson who I think is still renting a residence in the district.
DeLay has never really had to campaign for re-election. Many years I've never even gotten a single piece of campaign literature in the mail, and there were no television or radio spots.
I think the Ronnie Earle attack will change that this year. There is a certain segment, even among Republicans, who are politically tone deaf, who just hear some vague background noise about DeLay being a crook. He's going to have to reach them somehow and reassure them in order to be re-elected.