You are missing political history.
Blacks constantly, consistently choose a red state Democrat. Not a Northeast white liberal. Warner is too conservative for the Moveon types. He won't do so well in Iowa or New Hampshire but he will sweep Super Tuesday and lock up enough black support to do well in the big blue states.
The key for Warner is getting the black vote.
I'm sorry, this one caused me to split my sides. I kinda am a political historian and have been accused multiple times of dwelling too much in the past or living in a textbook.
"Blacks constantly, consistently choose a red state Democrat. Not a Northeast white liberal. Warner is too conservative for the Moveon types. He won't do so well in Iowa or New Hampshire but he will sweep Super Tuesday and lock up enough black support to do well in the big blue states."
Color me very surprised if Warner gets the nod (pun unintended). But White radical left activists aren't going to let (insert racist euphemism for Blacks) decide who gets the nod if it goes against their candidate. You have to understand, to them, people like Warner or Evan Bayh are regarded as crypto-Republicans.