Posted on 12/01/2005 10:40:52 AM PST by .cnI redruM
NOTHING swells the breast so much as the thought that you have been proved right at last. After riding high at the start of the 1980s, gold bugs had a miserable couple of decades. The price declined relentlessly, mocking their credo that the security of the financial system ultimately depends upon the yellow metal. Lately, though, the faithful have enjoyed their reward. In the past five years the price of gold has doubled. This week in Asian trading it briefly surpassed $500 a troy ounce—a level last breached in 1987. You can almost feel the bugs' excitement as the message sinks in: gold is back.
This being gold, the resurgence has brought forth all manner of alarming prophecies. The price is an omen of rampant inflation; bonds are doomed; the dollar is about to fall prey to the United States' reckless deficits; the euro will shortly be revealed as a worthless creation of bureaucrats.
The world is an unpredictable place. But, with the possible exception of a fall in the dollar, not much of the above catalogue of doom looks likely; and none of it has much to do with gold's good run. The dull truth is much less bullish for gold. Investors have put money into a wide range of metals, and precious metals' prices, including gold's, have risen with the base. Meanwhile, gold remains fundamentally unattractive. It yields nothing and central banks are sitting on vaultfuls of the stuff that they want eventually to sell. Gold bugs hope that $500 is the threshold at which mainstream investors will start once again to take an interest in the metal. Caveat emptor.
Advertisement The fascination of gold lies in its being not only a commodity but also a store of value and means of exchange. The glamour and the mystique lie in the latter, monetary part. This is what draws gold bugs, but their story doesn't quite add up. The unbalanced world economy still faces risks. But the most recent rises in the gold price have come against a strong dollar, which is normally a sign of weaker gold and continues to confound warnings of a collapse in the greenback. Oil prices are plainly far higher than they were, but they have come off their peaks. Moreover, there have been few signs so far that oil prices are feeding through to a 1970s-style stagflation. Nothing in either bond or stockmarkets suggests that investors see much danger of such a thing happening.
Bear on bullion Gold's renewed shine is best explained by thinking of the metal not as money but as a commodity dug out of the ground. In the past few years the price has climbed because mining companies stopped locking in prices by selling gold in advance—in effect, withdrawing a huge source of supply. Even then, gold has captured only 40% of the gains of other metals in The Economist's metals index, which has almost doubled since the start of 2003 thanks partly to fundamental demand from emerging markets and partly to investors in search of better returns than those from other assets. Gold would have done better had Chinese demand risen as fast as some expected; in fact, figures from GFMS, a consultancy, suggest it has been flat, even falling, over the past 20 years. Chinese investors now have other places to put their money.
Gold is still cheap compared with its peak of $850 in 1980. Today, adjusting for changes in American consumer prices, it is worth only a quarter as much. Gold bugs might see that as a chance to buy; others as a reminder of gold's enduring capacity to disappoint.
True, you were smart. But as a generalized commodity, gold has a lot to offer than, say, frozen orange juice concentrate or hog bellies.
Yes, my American Eagles 1 oz gold coins are among my favorite possessions. They are absolutely beautiful to look at and feel great in your hand.
Even if they doubled in value I probably wouldn't sell them.
Yeah, well, telling the truth is an absolute defense.
Once upon a time, and this is no sh!t, I forgot, telling it would offend somebody.
I thought that we're all just sitting around a virtual fire pit.
My bad.
Let me take a stab at this question...
It is as much a slang or derogatory term.
The socialist and big government types (yes that includes Bush too) will constantly demean gold because their funny money fiat system rest solely on the faith of the people to believe in it, and be beholden to its masters and creators.
Money isn't worth the paper its printed on unless you believe it is. Without belief, the control over you and me and the rest of society would soon dwindle, or maybe even grow brutally worse.
So you see, gold is a threat to the system, for what it is, and what it represents; an alternative measure of value not based on the smoke and mirrors of our keepers but rather the free will of the people. They can't control the value of it...so they set their currency free of it to control us.
As to being barbarous and relic, that reference is likely because it was the standard when we were nothing if not unsophisticated by todays 'standards'.
Barbarous: 1. Primitive in culture and customs; uncivilized.
Relic: 1. Something that has survived the passage of time, especially an object or custom whose original culture has disappeared: “Corporal punishment was a relic of barbarism” (Cyril Connolly). 2. Something cherished for its age or historic interest. 3. An object kept for its association with the past; a memento.
Antonyms for Relic: fresh, green, new, unripe, unseasoned, young, youthful
Antonyms for Barbarous: civilized, cultured, humane, kind, nice, refined, sophisticated
Its very easy to understand why the elite, though they love gold themselves...hate the common mans desire for it, and the independent value it represents.
FDR, the father of the welfare state took us off the gold standard...
I hear the AU fineness runs in the high eighties and low nineties down there!
Most of Alaskan placers run in the low to mid eighties, but no snakes, or gators, or the rest of that jungle thing, here.
Keep in mind that the British Empire and the United States from its founding were on the gold standard. Both experienced no inflation during the periods that they remained on the gold standard. The USA did experience inflation during the Civil War period, when the government started issuing greenbacks. But the inflation only affected greenbacks.
Of course, as we all know, the USA went off the gold standard in 1933 and then the US pulled out of the the Bretton-Woods agreement in 1971, which ended the exchange of gold by central banks. It's been all downhill from there.
The use of the gold standard is best explained in the book, The Way the World Works, by Jude Wanniski. I cannot recommend this book enough. Also, economists such as Laffer and Mundell advocates its use. Mundell just happened to have won a Nobel prize in economics. BTW, he and Laffer were the real architects of the Reagan Revolution.
To summarize Wanniski's explanation briefly, what's important is the activity at the "gold window" of a central bank. If people are buying gold with currency, money is inflating. If people are trading gold for currency, then money is deflating. The desired outcome is to have no net inflows or outflows at the "gold window". This has worked historically very well. Its worth noting the price of a loaf of bread was the same in 1790 as it was in 1910. The important thing is the net flow of gold not the absolute size of the reserves. Britain had a relatively small supply of gold when it was on the gold standard.
Milton Friedman himself pointed out that problem of trying to establish whether to expand of contract the money supply was like driving in a tunnel with no lights - you'd first crash against one wall, and then against the other - the monetary decisions would always be toward overcorrecting in one direction or another. The "illumination" for driving down that monetary tunnel is the gold standard.
Hey, this IS the virtual campfire, and I am hoisting a large virtual Jack Daniels to you at this moment. You have earned the right to mention your adventures. If you have all ten fingers and toes and both eyes at this point, you are probably luckier than many who walked down those same icy roads.
Probably because I quoted it from memory and when I looked it up it was actually the "king doesn't like gold" not "emperor" "hates". Try googling king gold blumert and see what comes up.
"gold is a terrible investment
No argument there. However gold can be an excellent hedge against rising interest rates and too much expansion of the money supply. However most people, and financial writers for that matter, do not have a clue to the difference between "investment" and "hedge" and many on the radio are pimping gold as an investment which is not a good thing.
And beanie babies? A collectable in one generation is trash in the next.
But you are an alter of a kaker and you must know.
Even when the US forbade individual holding of gold -- and what an affront to Liberty that was! -- individuals still held it. In collectable coins, in jewelry, in tradeperson's inventory, and a lot -- well, nominally illegally. A sad law that.
Through the ages, ages and ages, gold has been a tradeble, liquid commodity and one that always holds significant value. Even in the most insecure, dangerous and turbulent times -- one value of gold is its insurance value against such circumstances. Diamonds too. But we make diamonds effeciently now and getting moreso. Diamonds are the cubic zirconia of tomorrow.
A share of General Atomic, what is it worth today? If anything over a collectible's value, how liquid would that share be? Be realistic. Gold has its place in diverse keep of wealth.
In weight of gold, I assume you mean. What was that weight, if you know?
But the two as colors, at least, complement each other. And in reality too. Healthiest when gold is standard, but greenbacks have a significant float too. No system sustains forever. Jubilee years and all that. We had an expression in the US once "Not worth a 'continental'."
I do remember the snakes and the gators, but they always ran away at the sound of the outboard motor. The river never froze over --was always bath temperature.
When the guy told me that his gold dust was found to be contaminated with platinum and iridium, I offered to purify for him and give him back all the real pure 24k gold (that's just the kind of guy I am) but he said he didn't want me to.
Go figure.
People who bought dotcom crap will wait till death for a return so what is your point growth stock man?
Bump for later
Thanks for saying that to these Kool-Aid sippers.
"What was that weight, if you know?"
Unfortunately, I don't know. But I understand the wheat to gold ratio (probably by weight) was fairly constant historically.
Project for a rainy Sunday.
Its value is based upon an invariant love by mankind. What could be more valuable than the Tears of the Sun.
Whatever the theoretical faults of paper money the reality is that it has financed the most massive expansion of the World economy in history. Standards of living are at unparalleled levels for unparalleled numbers of people. There is insufficient gold to provide the liquidity necessary to allow that growth to have reached current levels and insufficient to maintain it. Yap coins would be little different than gold.
That illustrates a principle reason why there is insufficient gold to maintain a proper money supply. I love the ring on my hand too. People withdraw gold for too many non-monetary reasons. It is too beloved.
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