Liberals play Canadian unity card

COTEAU-DU-LAC, Quebec/OTTAWA - Prime Minister Paul Martin tried to play the emotional national-unity card on the first full day of the Canadian election campaign on Wednesday, but a patronage scandal that dogged his Liberal government returned to haunt him.

The scandal -- in which some Liberal organizers in Quebec funneled government sponsorship money to pro-Liberal advertising firms and demanded kickbacks -- has boosted support for the separatist Bloc Quebecois in the French-speaking province at the expense of the Liberals.

Martin has tried to put the scandal behind him, and on Wednesday warned of the dangers of Quebec separation. He said it would be folly to break up the country at a time of intensifying global competition.

But shortly after Martin spoke, his Liberal predecessor as prime minister, Jean Chretien, went to court to challenge the findings of an official inquiry into the scandal on the grounds there was "a reasonable apprehension of bias" about the way the commission operated and the conclusions it drew.

The inquiry head, Judge John Gomery, cleared Martin of wrongdoing but said part of the blame lay with Chretien.

"These factual findings are erroneous, perverse, capricious and made without regard for the material before the commission," read Chretien's 33-page affidavit.

The Chretien affidavit again put Martin on the defensive over the issue. He repeated that he supports Gomery's conclusions and denied that when he was Chretien's finance minister he had ever told the prime minister there was no problem with the sponsorship program.

"He never talked to me about it, and so I never gave him information," he told an afternoon news conference.

Martin's 17-month-old minority government fell on Monday over the findings of the scandal inquiry.

Anger over the affair means the Bloc remains the most potent force in Quebec and will probably prevent either the Liberals or the official opposition Conservatives from winning a majority government in the January 23 election.

In the June 2004 national vote, the Bloc Quebecois won 54 of the 75 Quebec seats in the 308-member House of Commons and since then has increased in popularity.

Martin introduced astronaut Marc Garneau on Wednesday as a "star" candidate from Quebec. Garneau said that while he understood the anger of Quebecers, he would try to persuade them it was time to turn the page.

"The Liberal Party has taken a beating. Now it's time to move on," Garneau said.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper was also in Quebec at the launch of the 55-day campaign. The Conservatives have no seats and little popular support in Quebec but hope they can take advantage of voter anger at the Liberals.

Harper spokeswoman Carolyn Stewart-Olsen pointed out that, until the scandal, the Bloc had been in decline.

"We hold Martin and the Liberals responsible for the increase in Bloc support," she said.

In Quebec City, Harper unveiled a proposal to set up an arm's-length public prosecutor who would be able to go after governmental wrongdoing.

"No longer will the attorney general face the conflict of deciding matters involving his own cabinet colleagues or his own party," Harper said.

The Conservatives have no chance of winning the 155 seats needed to form a majority government unless they make major inroads in Quebec, which is seen as highly unlikely.

But, elsewhere, a switch of only 18 Liberal seats to their column could see them form a minority government, which would have to depend on support from other parties to stay in power.

The Liberals lead the Conservatives by five or six points in most polls though the most recent one had them tied. Analysts suggest they will likely win another minority government, but still fall well short of the level needed to forge a majority.

I think it's a bit more likely than a pairing with the NDP. and here is why.

The NDP are intellectually committed to an economic and social philosophy that is as radically opposed to conservatism as can be. It is like trying to pair Karl Marx and Adam Smith.

By contrast, the Bloc are nationalists. So are Conservatives. Yes, the Bloc are economic socialists, but that is not the fundamental organizing principle of their party. They are not all committed to Marx. They ARE all committed to the idea of the French North American Nation, Quebec. So, Conservatives and the Bloc dealing with each other is like Reagan dealing with De Gaulle. The FUNDAMENTAL principle of nationality is understood by both. Now, of course, what the Bloc wants as far as a separate French nation is one of the things that the Conservatives adamantly oppose. But there are overlapping areas where they can cooperate - notably on nailing the Liberals to a cross (good for both), reforming the Senate (very good for both), free trade and common currency with the US (very good for both, albeit for different reasons).

These guys are going to get along like Eisenhower and DeGaulle, but those two WERE able to cooperate on fundamental things, actually.

"If pairing with the Bloc strengthens them, then why would they do that?. For short term (possibly very short) Power?? I fear the Conservative Party will probably enter the gov't when Quebec leaves the Country."

Two reasons.
First, if Quebec decides to go, it is going to go anyway. Nothing can stop them. The longer the Liberals are in power, the more likely that is, because although the French use the Liberals like a cheap whore, extracting everything they can get from the Liberal government, they don't respect the Liberals at all, and are not in the slightest persuaded by all of the handouts to stay in Canada. The separatists still want independence, and Liberal corruption merely strengthens their hand, because the French are as disgusted as anyone else at outright government corruption, even if the government is giving them handouts. The French are shrewd, insofar as they will extract every penny they can from the government, but this money doesn't buy loyalty. The Liberals are so tainted that the French don't respect them. Which means that the Liberals do not have the ability to politically influence the Bloc and the French to stay in Canada. All they can do is throw money into Quebec and THINK they're buying off the French to stay in Canada, but they're NOT. The French are ambivalent about separatism. The Bloc is the dominant party, but that doesn't mean that everyone who votes for the Bloc wants to march out of Canada tomorrow and unfurl the Lilies. The Bloc has not made the sale yet to French Canada to leave.
But the longer the Liberals remain in power, utterly corrupt and bereft of ideas, the French can only look at the national government with disgust. Yes, they will take the money, indeed they will extract it, but there is no respect for the Liberal government, at all.
French Canadians don't like the Conservatives, but a Conservative government that was not corrupt could gain respect for GOVERNMENT, period, in Quebec. As it is, the separatists are slowly winning because the spectacle of corruption in Ottawa is endless and doesn't give any very strong argument for national unity with that. All the Liberals can do is say: If you leave, we cut off the gravy train. Purchased, mercenary respect and unity is neither.

A Conservative government that cleaned up corruption in tandem with the Bloc would strengthen the Bloc politically in Quebec, to be sure, and it would not get any votes for Conservatives in Quebec, but it would strengthen the image of the Federal government itself, as an institution, among wavering French Canadians. Right now, it's a simple fact that the government in Quebec City, prickly as it is, is RELATIVELY honest (if unpleasant) but Ottawa under the Liberals is an utter cesspool of corruption. Make Ottawa honest, and you make it harder for the separatists to make easy gains for outright secession among wavering French Canadians.

Quebec is more likely to leave, in time, if the Liberals stay in power than if the Conservatives get power and clean up government, even if the Bloc's political position strengthens in Quebec province.

You're right that the Conservatives will probably enter the government when Quebec leaves, but my point is that having Conservatives in government, so long as they are cooperating (even if for cynical reasons) with the Bloc will make it less likely that Quebec will leave.

It's not a matter of bluster and threatening Quebec - that facile suggestion of some folks on this thread is a non-starter. Canada doesn't have the STRENGTH to forcibly keep Quebec in the Confederation if Quebec really wants to go. It's a matter of making the Federal government a less odious institution than it has become.

The second reason has to do with the sharing of power. Were the Bloc to be invited into government with the Conservatives, and given all of those various soft-power, cultural posts governing the issues that the French politicians are always talking about, suddenly the Bloc and Quebeckers would have direct control over those things they argue they have to separate to protect. Suddenly the Bloc has real power, national power, and becomes a national party. Assuming they do a reasonable job at it, they may get voters from the French enclaves across Canada. That is likely to change the heads of more than a few politicians of the Bloc. The dream of a nice little country where one can run the show is warm and cozy. But how about the dream of running the show with support and delegates from all across the world's second-largest country? Not that the Bloc would suddenly become a new Liberal Party (although that would not be half bad, really, given that the Liberals are so corrupt and have such deep ties of corruption; the Bloc would be naifs in comparison). Think of the transformation of Prince Hal into Henry V when he took the throne. The irresponsible, wild and dissipated young man, powerless and ill-regarded, suddenly became a model warrior and monarch when he found himself saddled with the reins of power. One thing can be said for the Bloc and the French politicians. They are extremely shrewd. They drive English-Canada bat-shit often, but their approach takes home a lot of money for Quebec from Ottawa WITHOUT the control of the government that the Liberals have. If they tasted national power, I think there is a significant chance that more than a few will remember that much of Ontario and the Plains were ALSO once French Canada, and that there are enclaves of French all across Canada, and they can represent them TOO. Do not underestimate the imperial avarice of man. Controlling the cultural and immigration and native portfolios of Canada would not make much of a difference for English Canadian conservatives, but it would be the Holy Grail of power to the Bloc, or at least to many members of the Bloc.
Let them taste national power in coalition, and they will seek to organize all of French Canada to their banner...and that will tie them to parts of the country that are far from Quebec.
In short, give them national ministries, and you are likely to save Canada.

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