Posted on 11/25/2005 10:23:02 AM PST by lowbuck
Boeing’s decision finally to launch its first major 747 derivatives in nearly 20 years sets the scene for a battle at the high-value top end of the commercial airliner market and throws down the gauntlet to arch-rival Airbus to deliver on its promise that the all-new A380 will dominate the sector.
The US manufacturer expects the arrival of its stretched updated passenger and freighter 747 models to constrain sales of the 555-seat A380 to fewer than 500 over the next two decades. This would be achieved by taking more than half of what Boeing projects will be a 900-unit market for aircraft able to accommodate more than 400 passengers in three classes, of which around 40% will be freighters. Airbus has always insisted that it expected competition in this sector and, in contrast to Boeing, predicts a potential market of more than 1,600 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Spearheading Boeing’s attack on the A380 is the 747-8 Freighter, for which Cargolux Airlines will be launch operator, taking delivery of the first of 10 aircraft on firm order in September 2009. Japan’s Nippon Cargo Airlines has made a firm commitment to take eight. Including the options, the pair have signed for a total of up to 34 aircraft, worth $5 billion at list prices. The -8F will be 5.6m (18.3ft) longer than the -400F and provide 16% more cargo volume and a payload capacity of 140t.
The passenger version, stretched by only 3.6m and dubbed the “Intercontinental”, will follow but has yet to attract a launch operator, a situation that Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Alan Mulally expects to be rectified “next year”. It will accommodate around 34 more passengers in a typical three-class layout and fly around 1,570km (850nm) further than today’s -400.
Mulally says the improvements being introduced to the 747 design – principally the use of state-of-the-art engines being developed to power the new-generation 787 and A350 twinjets – take “the performance of the 747 to the next level”. The manufacturer says the -8 designation was selected to “show the technology connection between the 787 and the new 747”.
Announcing the launch of the project in London last week, Mulally blamed the previous non-availability of such capable engines for the string of failed attempts to get a stretched 747 off the ground. The problem was that the airframe and aerodynamic changes that would have been needed to deliver the requisite performance improvements without the new powerplants could not be made economically viable, he said.
Designed to accommodate around 450 passengers in three classes, the 747-8 will provide about 20% more capacity than the 777-300 twinjet, but 20% less than the A380-800. “It’s right in the sweet spot of what we think the airlines will want,” says Mulally. He claims that the –8 will offer 8% lower seat-kilometre costs than the 747-400 and 6% lower than those of the A380, but with trip costs “25-30% less than the A380”, principally because the Boeing aircraft will weigh 13% less per seat.
The freighter will boast “15% better” tonne-kilometre costs than the 747-400 and “23% better than the A380”, Mulally claims. “The primary market will be Europe and Asia because it’s just expanding so fast in freight,” he adds. The two 747-8 variants will be exclusively powered by General Electric GEnx turbofans.
Production of the 747-400, which currently has an order backlog of 47, will cease following the entry into service of the -8 in 2009. List price of the -8 Intercontinental is $250-265 million and the -8F $265-275 million, compared with $205-237 million and $210-236 million for the -400ER and -400ERF, respectively.
Good points all.
I guess I was reinforcing your thought -- something about aeronautics in the 60s-70s that made them push the envelope -- pretty much to the limits of physics.
Thats why the 747 continues to operate as an airframe design and why all the other craft I pointed out continue as well.
Heck, the 727 is still operating for FedEx, some charters, as well as a lot of Latin American Airlines.
The SR-71 is retired and has been for some time while the F-14 will be gone early next year.
THey keep mothballing and unmothballing the SR-71.
As a plane, it continues to be unsurpassed. But the missions can be done through other, cheaper technologies.
Soon all the planes I listed will be gone, starting with the F-14.
But if another hot conflict broke out tomorrow, the F-14 would be there and succeed.
My point is about the staying power of the designs of yore.
You're right, but I figured I'd let someone with more knowledge explain some of the other reasons for not turning the C-5 into an airliner.
Let's not forget the greatest military cargo plane of all time...the C-130 Hercules. First flew in 1954 and is still in production today!
And Boeing is going to modernize and standardize those too.
Boeing Accepts First C-130 for Avionics Modernization
ST. LOUIS, January 19, 2005 - The Boeing Company [NYSE:BA] marked the induction of the first U.S. Air Force C-130 into the Avionics Modernization Program (AMP) in San Antonio, Texas today.
This aircraft will undergo a trial installation leading to the modernization of more than 500 U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps C-130 aircraft.
“After four years of hard work by our C-130 AMP team in Long Beach, Calif., St Louis, Mo., and Fort Walton Beach, Fla., the program is performing to plan and we’re on track for first flight in early 2006,” said Pat Finneran, vice president and general manager of Aerospace Support, part of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems.
The C-130 AMP program will standardize aircraft configurations with the installation of a fully integrated, night-vision-goggle-compatible digital glass cockpit and provide a reduction in total ownership costs for the U.S. Air Force. The new avionics system features digital displays and the proven flight management system from the 737 commercial airliner, both of which provide navigation, safety and communication improvements to meet global air traffic management (GATM) requirements. The GATM upgrade will facilitate the warfighter’s ability to deploy the fleet world-wide.
Aircraft modifications will be performed by the company at its Boeing Aerospace Support Center in San Antonio, employing more than 200 people on the program at full production. Modifications also will be performed by the Air Force at Warner Robins Air Logistics Center, Ga., and Ogden Air Logistics Center, Utah.
A unit of The Boeing Company, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems is one of the world's largest space and defense businesses. Headquartered in St. Louis , Boeing Integrated Defense Systems is a $27 billion business. It provides network-centric system solutions to its global military, government, and commercial customers. It is a leading provider of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; the world's largest military aircraft manufacturer; the world's largest satellite manufacturer and a leading provider of space-based communications; the primary systems integrator for U.S. missile defense and Department of Homeland Security; NASA's largest contractor; and a global leader in launch services. ###
It was on the show "Mega Machines." (Discovery Channel?) and had something to do with the wake vortecies and an organ http://www.schnitgerorgel.de/html/body_inzenso-e.html
Very interesting -- thanks for the info
I recently spoke with someone with 70 hours in the F-22. He says the F-22 uses less fuel at 59,000+ feet at mach 1.95 than it does at 30,000 feet and mach .95. No F-15, F-16, F-18, F-14, or F-anything can touch that.
The F-15 marks a high point in fighter aircraft performance that won't be beaten for a long time to come, and when it does it will be by unmanned aircraft that can pull 20-30 gees or more.
Boeing is talking about cost-per-passenger-mile and TCO and efficiency. Airbus is just whipping out it's airplane and saying theirs is the longest. Who do you think is going to win this fight?
The problem with Airbus, as is true with so many government and semi-government operations, is there is no way to kill the "Big Idea". Once the "Big Idea" takes hold, nobody has the authority to tell the bosses that they are full of themselves and no cost pressure makes it impossible, because the semi-government operation can always raid the public purse.
The A380 is going to be a disaster for the Europeans and drag their moribund economies even further into the gutter. But are they going to learn the lesson? Not bloody likely! They will probably blame the whole debacle on unconstrained capitalism and demand even more government control of industry.
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