Economy will make Russia fight for immigrants

RIA Novosti ^ | 19:20 | 24/ 11/ 2005 | Zhanna Zainchkovskaya

[mym]

MOSCOW. (Zhanna Zainchkovskaya, Director of the Migration Studies Center, for RIA Novosti) - Russia will not be able to develop the vast expanses of Siberia and the Far East without immigrant workforce.

Even the optimistic UN forecast predicts the Russian population will drop to 138 million by the year 2025. Without immigration the able-bodied population may decrease by almost 20 million people. This will cause serious problems. The domestic workforce will not be able to cope with Russia's economic development. Even today, we need several million more workers to implement the President's task of doubling the GDP. Under the circumstances we should welcome the migrants rather than aggravate hostility against them.

The biggest wave of immigrants is coming from China. There is a huge gap in the demographic structure in the border areas where the Chinese prevail over Russians many times over. Besides, the number of unemployed in China exceeds the entire population of Russia. No wonder China will use every opportunity to get rid of its excessive workforce.

For all that, it would be an exaggeration to say that the Chinese are going to invade Russia in large numbers. According to the latest census there are only 35,000 Chinese in Russia. The main cause for concern is China's official policy: its expansionist tendencies and concepts, its slogan "to move outward." There has been no expansion so far. Even if we count all Chinese people, including shuttle traders, who are present in Russia at the same time, there won't be more than half a million altogether. But their presence in Asian Russia is much more obvious.

However, the government policy constitutes a greater demographic threat to Siberia and the rest of the country than the immigrants themselves. The political thesis "we need immigrants" is immediately followed by all kinds of restrictions in the border areas and elsewhere. In other words, we are trying to regulate immigration exclusively by force. Certainly, a measure of control is necessary, but we should primarily work to ensure the required numbers of immigrants, and their integration into Russian life.

If we want to achieve steady economic growth, the flow of immigrants should increase by 800,000 people every year in the next two decades. It is not easy to absorb so many immigrants, but it is high time we started creating the required infrastructure. Now that the President has urged the authorities to create a favorable climate for immigrants, there is a certain change towards more liberal policies but progress is still very slow. Any delay may trigger illegal immigration.

There is a common misconception that immigrants will be given free housing, and the money will be diverted from the local population. But, as a rule, nobody gives immigrants free benefits anywhere. They have to earn the money the hard way. The task of the government is to apply simple rules of registration and employment, and to provide immigrants with an opportunity to rent cheap housing, which may become an additional source of income for the municipal authorities.

Our immigration legislation has serious flaws. There are two laws - on residence and on citizenship - that have become a serious obstacle to immigration into Russia. Immigrants have to waste a lot of time to legalize their permanent residence here. As a result, the immigration growth is less than 100,000 people a year, a meager figure for such an enormous country. If the number of immigrants continues to be so low, we won't be able to solve the workforce problem.

I am an optimist. I think the idea that Russians are aggressive towards immigrants is largely exaggerated. A massive influx of immigrants, coming from different cultures, is not welcomed anywhere. True, the attitude to "aliens" is somewhat more negative here, but history shows that eventually such sentiments subside. When Russia built the Trans-Siberian Railway and asserted its presence in Siberia and the Far East, the Chinese were already living there. There are always closer ties in border areas. Neither Russians nor indigenous people had a problem with the Chinese.

Russians also make frequent trips to China, conduct business there and buy goods. Moreover, their number exceeds that of the Chinese by 50%.

As for the threat of Chinese expansion, I agree with those who believe that the time of empires is gone. Territory as such does not have great value. It needs roads, pipelines, services, and other elements of infrastructure; otherwise, it is just an empty expanse. But it is very difficult and expensive to build infrastructure, and not everyone can cope with this task. So, Russia will keep its Siberian territory. But we need more workers for our economy.

Not long ago I read an article about the shortage of workers in the Kemerovo region. The author urged the locals not to be afraid of the Chinese: "If they work well at our plants, let them do it!" This is a strikingly new tune. It means that the economy has a choice: either to attract immigrants, or to curtail production. Recently China has issued a demand: if Russia joins the WTO, it should open the doors to the Chinese workforce. But Russia can open its doors as much as it sees fit.

One thing is clear. The economic situation will soon compel Russia to fight for the immigrants. The global market of migrant workers will be very competitive in the first half of the century. The European Union and the United States will compete with Russia for foreign workers. For the time being Russia is an outsider on this market.

[bybybill]

For those spots open in Siberia, the Russkys should advertize in the Journal of the American Bar Association, or maybe, al Jezzera

[LibWhacker]

Cool, maybe we could send them some of ours.

[one more state]

Tell Mexico

[Alexander Rubin]

Nonsense. I say we can put an add in the Berkeley campus news of positions opening up in a new "socialist paradise", in a scenic and historical location.

[U S Army EOD]

OK US airlines, now is your big chance. From the Texas border to Russia is how far?

[bill1952]

As for the threat of Chinese expansion, I agree with those who believe that the time of empires is gone. Territory as such does not have great value.
But we need more workers for our economy

Dipstick. China will eat your lunch. Go ahead and bring more Chinese in.

[bybybill]

Hey, so long as you include anybody from BOULDER or PORTLAND< OR, I`m on your side

[hinckley buzzard]

Dipstick. China will eat your lunch. Go ahead and bring more Chinese in.

My reaction as well. Although I imagine the Russo-Chinese borderlands must be remote and fairly empty, nature abhors a vacuum; and the potential for oil&gas, metals, etc, will insure both sides weighing the possibilities.