Posted on 11/22/2005 7:47:59 PM PST by Hoosier-Daddy
The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.
Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.
"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.
The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."
Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.
"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.
As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.
On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.
During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.
For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.
"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
You have to be skeptical of those defense spending comparisons. Our spending is much greater than China's spending largely because we pay our military people a decent salary, whereas Chinese soldier are draftees who are paid next to nothing. Employees of US defense contractors are also paid far more than defense workers in China, Russia, etc., which makes our weapons much more expensive and boosts our spending. So it's tough to do a valid comparison of US defense capabilities with other countries based on spending.
The key to peace and stability is our maintaining a conventional force second to none which the Chinese would not dare test. I fear we are lacking this or heading in that direction. I've seen nothing from Bush similar to Reagan's expansion of the navy.
It's tough to compare today's Navy with the Navy of the Reagan era. We have fewer ships, but the weapons we can launch from aircraft and ships are so much more accurate and lethal than the weapons of the 80's. Even with fewer ships, we probably have much more effective firepower than we did 20 years ago. We just have to make sure nobody can disable or jam our GPS satellites, which guide so many weapons today.
absurd, US fleet of 18 trident submarines would completely destroy that entire country...2 patrol that area at all times..
It could be that Ishihara-san is smart enough to realize that the single-minded patriotism of the WWII generation is gone, and the country is too fractured and has too many enemy within for it to win. You don't really think the left and the media will actually support an all out war, do you?
What concerns me most is the military secrets that China has stolen from us, especially the ones we don't know they've stolen.
Ha ha ha. Of coarse I know what JDAM's are, silly man. You think China has no air defences? Don't be so naive. I'm not arguing with anyone on the post, just want to make that clear.
It just seems that some of the opinions lead to America is all powerful and we couldn't in no way be defeated. Not even so much being defeated, as heavy loss that concerns me most.
It's a bit late tonight, however I would be happy to provide links and sources to some of the research I've gone into. Catch up tomorrow.
Oh and by the way, I just don't buy into this notion that either side would be stupid enough to use nukes.
China has made lots of bluffs and all, but their not as backward as they seem, likewise with the political climate in this country, we wouldn't even have the gumption to use nukes, not even if Tawain is hit with one by the Chinese.
We'd more likely start into serious negotiations with the U.N. security counsel--blah blah blah.
You have a good point. I will look for some info in this regard, very interesting. Do you have any sources I may find some of what your talking about regarding the Japanese navy?
You would think that with the US being occupied in the middle East for the indefinite future that if they were going to take Taiwan, the would already have done so. They probably aren't going to exercise the war option until their economy comes crashing down when all of their insolvent banks fail. When this will occur is anyone's guess, but it is certainly around the corner.
Our ground forces are occupied in Iraq. Our Navy and air assets are what would stop them from taking Taiwan. Those assets are not tied down in Iraq to any appreciable extent.
That said, I'm not sure we could get together the political will to defend Taiwan. The lib pacifists and appeasers might well let it go.
Attack the US proper or Japan or S. Korea, and China will find out why we are acknowledged the world's only superpower. And those that are so certain we'll never use nukes are living in a dream world. MAD is still a working policy, and Americans still understand only two choices exist: live free or die.
The way you make it sound, any info that proves contrary to YOUR belief, it's poppycock.
There are people out in the world that are much smarter than you and I both.
We couldn't punch out of a paper bag.
You better check up on just how lethal our military forces truly are.
Our FA-22 is simply the finest fighter plane in the world. The Chi-Com pilots will die never having seen the plane that killed them. Without air cover to protect them, the size of the ground forces becomes meaningless as the Daisy Cutters do their dance of death.
Factor in the rest of our forces and you discover that the Chinese would be the one with the problem. We've fought Iraq by pulling our punches.
Good points, and consider this:
We haven't really deployed our Air Force or Navy. We are doing Iraq with the Marines and the Army, and only portions thereof.
Taiwan will completely be a Naval conflict. We are investing heavily in guided missile destroyers for a reason. We can stand off someone's coast and use far more effective munitions than we had even 10 years ago to take out key infrastructure and military elements.
The important thing for China will not be taking and occupying Taiwan, it will be figuring out how to feed, water, provide medical attention, and sewer services to all of the Chinese whose core services have been obliterated by US forces.
By doing this you cut their ability to communicate and resupply occupation forces in Taiwan.
But as you say, their banks could not sustain any kind of conflict with the United States.
I hear their mass bomb shelters are very cool in the summer and warm in the winter.
I had no idea that the Japanese spend so much money ($45B/year) on their military. What the hell are we still doing in South Korea?
I can't believe that this guy is serious. He thinks we'd be forced to withdraw after 2,000 deaths?
I suspect that he's exaggerating in order to encourage our Asian allies to build up their own defenses, so as to not be totally dependent on us. And that actually is a good thing, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that it will force China to realize that this is not a struggle between the US and China. There are a whole lot more hairs on this thing than that.
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