Shintaro Ishihara.
Remember his book?
Posted on 11/22/2005 7:47:59 PM PST by Hoosier-Daddy
The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.
Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.
"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.
The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."
Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.
"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.
As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.
On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.
During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.
For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.
"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
I wonder if this guy is a Japanese version of Dennis Kucinich?
"2) The US would not likely fight China in large scale land battles. The likeliest possibility would be a battle for Taiwan. Crossing a body of water is a very difficult thing to do (stopping power of water) and when you are facing a modern military (Taiwain) backed by the only superpower in the world's naval and air forces it becomes even more difficult."
Agreed. The Chinese themselves (with agreement by many US analysts) assume that to successfully conquer Tawain they would have to succeed in 10-12 days. During that window, they would have a chance due to the time it takes to move in US assets. After that, the Chinese would have no chance.
"Insight Mag has always struck me as a rather kooky and crappy source. I actually wouldn't trust that anything they claim to be quoting is correct."
Appreciate that info. I am not familiar with them, but this first impression is a bad one.
Of course, the ChiComs would immediately bomb Jimmuh's canal, making our supply route that much more difficult!
I think even the Dummies will be surprised how many NEW friends we have if the Commies attack. If we go down there is nothing in the way to keep the commies from moving in on Japan, Asia, Eastern Europe.........
May be of interest:
http://home.earthlink.net/~rufusis/japanno/part01.html
I believe we have five aircraft carriers and supporting ships stationed on the west coast and in Hawaii. The Panama canal is not a factor any more and our carriers are too big to fit through the canal anyway. I don't know for sure, but I'll bet we have two carrier battle groups within seven days of Taiwain at all times.
Actually the closest parallel to the Chinese military at the moment is the perception of the Iraqi military (the million man, battle, hardened, blah blah blah) in the Fall of 1990.
A great many people with a great many axes to grind and precious little understanding of military matters have frantically overhyped it.
The Panama Canal is largely irrelevant to the US military at the moment, and not particularly relevant to the US economy, and it being inoperable wouldn't matter much to the US in a war at all.
Aegis system can be used to defend against missiles as well as aircraft. Best defense against supersonic cruise missiles is to bomb their launch sites before our ships get within range.
What makes them think we'd ever have to put boots on the ground? If we ever go to war with China, it'll be a nuclear war.
Although I really don't want to find out if I'm right, I disagree. America is the only country, in my opinion, that could actually win a war against the Chinese. I kind of doubt they want to test my theory.
In the last couple of hundred years, and other than Tibet, China has engaged and defeated whom?
The Chinese have managed to lose an immense number of wars against a large number of countries in the last 3,000 years.
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