The bitch is if it becomes clear that the Sunnis want at the Shias, and that is what it really is about. How long do we underwrite avoiding that with the blood of US troops, if the Shias have the slows in getting about the business of creating an effective national army to deal with that? The Sunnis strike me as the lean and hungry and agreesive North Vietnamense, and the Shias more laid back South Vietnamese. At what point, do we move to plan B, with is a splintered nation, however ugly that might be? No, I don't have any good answers. I don't think there are any, if events disappoint. And Bush IS running out of time.
I mentioned to someone else that it is estimated that the Iraqi forces are about 1/3rd what they need to be, to be self-sustaining. It is also estimated that in about one year, it will be near 100%.
You may be right with your assessment, but my take is that the Iraqi government is rather stable and considered legitimate. I don't think the South Vietnamese government was.
What has surprised me is that Iraqi government troops seem to weather attacks and losses, yet maintain a will to defend their nation. Perhaps this is pie in the sky on my part, but I've not seen reports of desertion or other worrysome signs.
78% of the people in Iraq voted favorably on the last ballot. Sunnis are now forming parties and seem intent on entering government. If they feel that they have a vested interest in the nation and a chance at some form of local self-rule, I think there may be a chance for peace.
Look, I do not deny that it is still possible this may all fall appart. I think the next six months are crucial. If it's at all possible, our people need to stop the car bombings. It's taking a heavy toll.