Posted on 11/14/2005 2:27:32 PM PST by Wuli
I expect most New Jersey Republicans will never again allow themselves and the party to be abused by Mr. Forrester.
Forrester lost not because of George Bush, but because he was not George Bush (who by the way was not even on the ballot).
Forrester used his money and the party establishment to get the nomination against a number of primary opponents who, though less well funded, were powered-up by a base of conservative activism that had voted for Bush in 2004. As a result, a good many local activists, among those who voted for Bush in 2004, set aside their activism for the Republican party for the year, right after the primaries.
Then Forresterr went on to run a fairly liberal, country club Republican campaign and failed to excite many conservative activists from the primaries during the general election campaign.
Both parties stayed home in greater numbers and %'s than they did in 2004. But, the Corzine vote was only 35% less than Kerry's 2004 tally, while Forrester's vote was 40% less than Bush's 2004 tally. Its not that more Democrats ran out to vote against Bush. Fewer Republicans rushed out to vote for Forrester.
In 15 out of 21 counties, a higher percentage of registered Republicans failed to vote in 2005 compared to 2004, than did registered Democrats. In no New Jersey county did Forrester increase the number of Republican votes, over the Bush vote in 2004; including in the six counties where more Democrats stayed home. In other words, Forrester did not draw out a large block of new Republican voters.
Even in six counties - Atlantic, Cape May, Morris, Sussex, Ocean and Warren - where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, a higher % of registered Republicans stayed home in 2005 compared to 2004, than did registered Democrats. If Forrester had just got Republicans to not stay home by a greater % than the Democrats, in those counties, Forrester would have made up 18.78% of his loss to Corzine.
In two counties with large Hispanic communities, Hudson and Passaic, Forrester lost many of the conservative and independent Hispanic voters who voted for Bush in 2004. Forrester's Hudson county vote alone was 71% less than Bush got in 2004; even with 48% of the county's 2004 Democrat voters staying home. Just staying even with Bush in those two heavily Democratic counties, Forrester would have erased 10.53% of his loss to Corzine.
If Forrester had managed to get registered Republicans to not stay home in a greater % in 2005 compared to 2004, than the Democrats, in seven counties with majorities of Democrats - Union, Salem, Middlesex, Glocester, Essex, Cumberlin and Bergen - he would have held onto enough of the 2004 Bush votes to narrow his loss to Corzine by 24.56%.
Under three conditions - Six Republican majority counties, two heavily Hispanic counties and seven major Democrat counties - Forrester decreased the Republican % of the vote, compared to Bush in 2004. Those losses account for 53.87% of his loss to Corzine.
In six counties - Burlington, Camden Hunterdon, Mercer, Monmouth, and Somerset - where registered Repubicans did not stay home in as great of %'s as did the Democrats, Forrester did improve the % of the county vote for himself, over the Bush % in 2004. However, in none of those counties did Forrester's number of votes surpass those of Bush in 2004. And, his slight increased % margins in those counties were so small, the total only reduced the "depressed" stay-at-home Republican losses enough to makeup 7% of his loss to Corzine.
In 2004 George Bush got 46.47% of the New Jersey vote. In 2005 Forrester got 45.40% of the New Jersey vote.
In 2004, Bush got 702,693 more votes than there are registered Republicans (1,587,494 vs 884,801). If Forrester had got slightly more than 1/4 of those 702,693 votes, even with the lower turnout, he would have exceeded the 193,892 votes by which he lost to Corzine. Instead, his own Republican vote was lower.
Forrester lost because he did not excite the Republican vote. It was depressed more than was the total off-year election turnout. It's that simple.
Plain and simple, there was nothing to get excited about with Forrester's campaign.
That makes two of us. What a skunk he turned out to be.
This poster has the right answer. Many others are correct on the issues but Forrester lost because of Forrester.
I didn't stay home. I voted for the Libertarian.
That is, I, Mrs VS, voted for the Libertarian. VS voted for Forrester. I wasn't going to vote for an unprincipled, pro-abort pretending he's pro-life, promising-tax cuts he can't deliver RINO. Oh, and he looks like Elmer Fudd. If I voted on looks, I'd have voted for Corzine. I want out of this state.
Mrs VS
Truly, it was a hold your nose and vote moment.
He did prove his unworthiness for conservatives, didn't he, by blaming someone else for his failure.....an outstanding trait of a RINO. Blech.
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