For state NJ GOP, the numbers never added up

North Jersey Newspapers ^ | 11.13.05 | MIKE KELLY

[Coleus]

ON THE MORNING after Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Forrester conceded defeat, one of the party's most feisty conservative pugilists declared war. But Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan wasn't attacking Democrats. His target was his own party.

Fire the GOP state chairman, Lonegan thundered. Fire the assembly minority leader, too. And one more thing: cleanse Republicanism of any taint of liberalism.

"It's time to start winning again," Lonegan said.

His blistering three-page e-mail, sent well before noon the day after Tuesday's double-digit triumph for Democrat Jon Corzine, was not so much a call for Republicans to regain their footing, but proof that the once-powerful and savvy party of such nationally significant figures as Tom Kean and Christie Whitman may now be on life-support.

After yet another crushing defeat in a state-wide election, it's worth asking if the state Republican Party has become so marginalized that it may be years before it can be a competitive force in a statewide election.

Consider the evidence: Since Whitman barely won reelection as governor against then-newcomer Jim McGreevey in 1997, Democrats have taken every statewide election. Democrats now control both U.S. Senate seats, most House seats, both houses of the state Legislature, and the governorship.

In the state Assembly, Republicans hold the fewest number of seats since the 1970s - or, or as Lonegan noted, "the lowest since the Watergate era." What's more, the party once regarded as the playground for New Jersey's rich can't even brag that it has the biggest election treasure chest anymore. Democrats now regularly beat the GOP at their old game: raising money. Millionaire Corzine outspent millionaire Forrester 2-to-1.

"We were facing a tsunami of cash" from Democrats, said GOP state chairman Tom Wilson. "It's hard to go on the offense when you run out of bullets."

Looking over the rubble, the triumphs of Kean in the Eighties and Whitman in the Nineties seem like ancient history. Democrats now firmly control the state's population centers, with Republican strength relegated to shore areas and rural sections in the northwest and south. As one Democratic strategist said in describing the state of Republican disarray: "The party is not in a different area code. It's in a different epoch."

What happened? This election was supposed to be different. Democrats seemed self-destructive. Gov. Jim McGreevey had resigned amid a lurid gay sex scandal, and the party's bosses had been linked to the pay-to-play game in which campaign contributors received lucrative government contracts.

What's more, the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee seemed only slightly more charismatic than asphalt on the turnpike. For all his millions, U.S. Senator Jon Corzine was viewed even by loyal Democrats as a muddled speaker, with too many ties to the pay-to-play party bosses.

It did not help that Corzine was disenchanted - some said he was bored - with his Senate job before completing his first term and that he pushed aside the hugely popular acting Governor Codey to run for governor.

It also did not help that one of the chief beneficiaries of Corzine's checkbook was a former girlfriend who happened to run a union that represented state employees. If Corzine won, his staff could be negotiating state contracts with the governor's former lover - or "gal-pal" as a New York tabloid wrote.

Was this Trenton or "The Young and the Restless"?

It seemed like a perfect opportunity for Republicans to win. And Doug Forrester, a former minister, seemed like the right candidate.

Or was he? What's surprising in the wake of Forrester's crushing defeat is how some prominent Republican leaders now say Forrester was terribly miscast.

In a post-election interview, state GOP Chairman Tom Wilson did not mince words. He described Forrester to me as "a nondescript Republican" who "didn't have his own identity" and had immense troubles communicating his platform.

William Palatucci, a respected GOP strategist and former finance chairman of the state party, went even farther. Forrester "just doesn't talk like an average person," Palatucci said. "He's stiff. He's too formal. He's verbose. In this state you can't run a candidate who is unable to communicate on TV when most voters get their information from TV."

Forrester's communication problems were especially apparent after Corzine accused his prescription benefits firm, Benecard, of its own pay-to-play relationships with municipal officials. Instead of just denying the accusation, Forrester would typically launch into long answers that even accountants found difficult to follow.

"Forrester came off as an uppity snob," said conservative strategist Rick Shaftan, who advises Lonegan.

Palatucci favored another Republican: U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who had gained a reputation for busting corrupt politicians. But Christie never announced his candidacy. He told supporters he did not want to run in a contested primary.

Even Codey was surprised. "Why didn't they run Christie?" he said after the election.

Once nominated, Forrester seemed reluctant to reach out to charismatic Republicans for help. Yes, he managed to get Kean and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani to appear in TV ads. But he was virtually alone on the campaign stump. He never sought help from President Bush, fearing the president's problems with the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina would turn off voters. Nor did Forrester reach out to one of his party's best campaigners - Whitman.

"It was a calculated mistake," said one Republican strategist of Forrester's decision to ignore Whitman. "I think we paid for it."

Finally, GOP leaders now acknowledge that the party never seemed able to put its own rhetorical house in order. Pressured by Lonegan and others to embrace a more conservative agenda, Forrester also knew that he needed to reach out to moderates and independents. Despite months of strategizing, the party never found a way to please everyone.

"You don't grow by subtraction," GOP Chairman Wilson said. "You grow by addition."

He's right. But New Jersey Republicans are still looking for a formula that works.

This could take a long time.

[Coleus]

Lonegan: NJGOP Needs To Rebuild With New, Conservative Leadership.

[johnmecainrino]

U.S attorney Chris Christie should have run.

He has been the leader in rounding up all the crooks in NJ.

He also comes across as an average guy.

Would have been nice to turn the culture of corruption agains the dems with a real straight shooter.

Christie would have made it much more a competitive race. He also wouldn't be bashing Bush if he lost. He is a class act that campaigned his heart out for Bush in 2000.

[kylaka]

Bend over. More taxes will no doubt solve all problems, although it never has. Corzine will try plan 1203.03.rev b, which is soak the rich with incomes less than 40K per year.

[Coleus]

U.S attorney Chris Christie should have run. >>

everyone is saying this without ever hearing his platform on lowering taxes, regulations, making nj more business friendly. IMHO, His job as US Attorney has no bearing on a candidate for governor.

[Nipplemancer]

Forrester should've never won the primaries. The only reason Corzine won is because Forrester bought the GOP ticket for himself. Selfish bastard.

[Fee]

There is a large nonvoting bloc in NJ who do not see any difference between the two parties. Father's rights is one group. Not all of them are deadbeats, many are holding two or three jobs just trying to live, eat and pay their alimony. Many lost their wives, because their wives were unhappy with them and found something better. Now they live in legal slavery. Lose your job or have health problems, alimony must be paid. There is no respite. Make more money, and the wife's attorney will come knocking on their doors for it. Others just hit the bottle and gave up hope. Few desperate ones commit suicide. They suffer in silence because they have no advocate that will balance the alimony laws between husband and wife.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

But New Jersey Republicans are still looking for a formula that works.

The formula that works is conservativism. The political consultants all want to go for the mushy middle but there are many more conservatives than must people realize and that the polls uncover. Look at talk radio, that is your poll. Someone with the guts to run on a strong conservative platform will win. Most give in to the mushy middle who then stay home while the unions turn out the Democrat base.

[Soul Seeker]

He never sought help from President Bush, fearing the president's problems with the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina would turn off voters.

Yet the loser has the nerve to blame Bush for his loss. It couldn't be he ran a lousy campaign, is a Liberal and to boot is in a state where Whitman's legacy BEYOND what is implied in the article is WHY Democrats are the Majority party. Her legacy was the collapse of the Party in N.J., and now she wants the same for the national GOP.

Fire the GOP state chairman, Lonegan thundered. Fire the assembly minority leader, too. And one more thing: cleanse Republicanism of any taint of liberalism.

"It's time to start winning again," Lonegan said.

Yahoo! I like this guy! Listen to him! It may not be an instant fix, but if he commits to it and they commit to it in 10-20 years they can start to show inroads.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Problem is the state GOP itself. Real conservatives get the shaft while filthy RINOs and wealthy country club Republicans are fawned over.

Just like in NY, CA, IL, and now NJ - those state Republican parties are a joke.

[308MBR]

The spending, open borders, non-prosecution of employers of illegal aliens, not developing our own oil resources and time spent dallying around with IMPORTANT things like steroids in pro sports is making ALL GOP state parties look like jokes.

[mm201]

I wouldn't run down those wealthy country club Republicans. Someone has to finance party operations.

[johnmecainrino]

From what I have read Christie is over all a conservative. And anyone would be better than the tired old schundler and forrester crowd.

Do you know what Kean Jr is like politically? Is he a moderate like his dad or more conservative. With Christie and Kean Jr the bench isn't bad for the Gop in NJ even if the state party is a mess.

[rcrngroup]

The formula that works is conservativism. The political consultants all want to go for the mushy middle but there are many more conservatives than must people realize and that the polls uncover. Look at talk radio, that is your poll. Someone with the guts to run on a strong conservative platform will win. Most give in to the mushy middle who then stay home while the unions turn out the Democrat base.

I absolutely agree. The political pundits (or numnuts) and liberal, left-wing MSM are ALWAYS are pushing, advocating, critiquing Republicans to "turn left, young man (or woman), turn to the center, you gotta reach out to the soft mushy center." I believe they recommend & write this crap because they KNOW that if a conservative Republican ran a strong, principled, unapologetic, conservative campaign, that candidate would bury the liberal opposition. Yet time and time again, the RNC leadership and top Repuke gurus fall for that line over and over. When will they ever learn? With just that one strongly worded speech last week and his (finally) good SCOTUS appointment of Alito, President Bush has recaptured much of the support from the conservative majority base. I wish the Republicans would realize that the more they turn left and reach for the mushy center, the worse they do....but when they reach out and act on conservative principles, they win and build majorities.

[Italia222]

I live in New Jersey. I voted for Forrester. He was not a very good candidate but might have made a decent governor. Corzine is a horrible person - the stink of corruption emits all around him - like those smells you get as you drive down the turnpike. The Democrats in New Jersey are totally corrupt but the sad news is Republicans are a basically dead party in this state. New Jersey has been taken over by brain dead liberals and New Jersey is now a liberal wasteland. The reason why - New Jersey is a nice suburban place to live and all the liberal snobs who make their money in New York move to New Jersey to live and that is why my once pleasant state has been poisoned. Sad really.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I wouldn't run down those wealthy country club Republicans. Someone has to finance party operations.

That's why they're wealthy - because they know they won't get a dime from the grassroots.

If they were conservative they wouldn't have to worry about financing their campaigns.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I think overall NJ is just a liberal state. Schundler was a good conservative but he only got 40% of the vote in 2001.

When the state falls into the Atlantic under the burden of high taxes, regulation, and corruption maybe a conservative will win.

[Coleus]

I was heartened by the dozens of e-mails I received in response to the press statement I put out last week calling for a conservative change in the leadership of our state party.  Unfortunately, those people responsible for this year's election catastrophe refused to take responsibility for this defeat and remain in their positions today.  Most Republican Party officials, particularly those with the liberal so-called "moderate" wing, are in complete denial about the continued electoral slide that is a direct result of their strong-arm "leadership" and total lack of philosophy.

 

Below are Google News links to recent news stories where I have appeared.  As always, I am available to discuss with the media my reasons for believing that New Jersey Republicans will win once more once we stand for principle, for taxpayers and for our conservative values.  As a homeowner, taxpayer and concerned citizen, I will continue to speak out for these and other important issues over the coming months.

 

If you no longer wish to receive these emails, please hit "REPLY" and type "UNSUBSCRIBE" in either the subject line or body of the email.  Thank you.

 

Mayor Steve Lonegan.

 

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[mm201]

I think that's why they're wealthy because they are conservative.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

You know more than I about the politics of the state but I suspect Shundler played to the middle and modified his conservatism some just like the rest of them do.

[qam1]

Do you know what Kean Jr is like politically?

He's as far to the right as Mike Bloomberg is.