Housing Market Cooling, Data Say

The Washington Post ^ | Nov 11, 2005 | Kirstin Downey and Sandra Fleishman

[surely_you_jest]

New data released yesterday show that in the past year, home sales in the Washington region have declined sharply, the inventory of unsold homes is up significantly, and prices have flattened and, in some cases, fallen.

The trend is most striking in Northern Virginia, where most of the region's growth has occurred, but it is evident almost everywhere.

[montag813]

Well, here in "mid-America" people have their kids in school and so they can't think about moving until May/June, so, allowing a couple of months to shop for a home, then close, that puts you about April to start buying

I am a condo seller in NYC. I want a gay buyer. No kids, tons of cash. Eurotrash gay is best while euro still has a 17% premium.

[A CA Guy]

The rise reminded me of the stock market pyramid scheme during the Clinton administration.

I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did.

[montag813]

Yeah, well I'd like to see homes rise 10-14% next spring when rates are going higher and higher.

I think rates will be lower in April than they are now. I said the same on FR last year when others predicted 7.5% 30yr rates by the end of 05.

I also shorted crude @ $70.50 (look for my post on the night Katrina hit). I like to bet against conventional wisdom. Inflation is tame and the Fed will end their hikes sooner than expected. Bernake is not as consumed with wrecking the housing market as is Greespan.

[durasell]

I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did


It'll be a much slower decline. Probably take 18 months to 2 years.

[Porterville]

You mean less houses get sold during the winter? Did you go to bidness school to learn that or .... well, I won't say it. You folks are priceless;

[durasell]

No, what you want is the privileged child of someone from the midwest in town less than two years who doesn't know what real estate is worth and will have dad/mom co-sign the loan.

[ARCADIA]

Inflation is tame and the Fed will end their hikes sooner than expected. Bernake is not as consumed with wrecking the housing market as is Greespan.

The US is a debtor nation. Those rate hikes are there to attract and retain financing; they will probably remain high until we can reduce our debt & spending. It may be hard to find an additional $60B+/month to fund the current account if we reduce rates.

[A CA Guy]

I have heard there is an expectant rise in foreclosures to 1800%. That happened almost to that level twice since the 80s. This being the fastest largest rise, I expect to see the most drastic fall.

I guess the banks are happy about the new bankruptcy law changes.
I also feel bad for those with short term interest only loans.

[RightWhale]

A real estate company is offering to buy vacant parcels in Alaska. Sight unseen, good prices. Something is going on.

[A CA Guy]

Do those parcels come with oil and mineral rights?

[Moonman62]

anyone who bought a home during the last bubble in the early 90's was pretty happy ten years later.

I know someone who bought a very nice home in 1990 and had to take about a 10% loss on it in 1999. If they could have held a few more years, they would have at least doubled the price. As it was the home was on the market for over a year.

In some markets these days it may take 20 years for some people to get their money back or 10 or 5. You never know, because there is no rule and you never know what kind of manipulation or stupidity is going to come out of Washington.

[RightWhale]

No. There are next to no subsurface right available to ordinary people in Alaska. They say it is possible to get subsurface rights, but the land authority would have to at least respond to a request, and they don't anymore unless you are a corporation.

[A CA Guy]

If some major oil company came in with influence and expects the oil needs of the country to allow more drilling, I would expect they would know something you don't.

It isn't likely that Julia Roberts is buying up 400 thousand acres for a new estate to live on, so I think these purchases are by people who know something is going down there in the near future.

[Nam Vet]

the inventory of unsold homes is up significantly

This is the worrying factor for me. You are correct in that the number of closings drops off rapidly at this time of year, but normally there is an equal percentage of drop in the total inventory offered as 'open listings'. If inventory is up a great deal that is not a good sign for future pricing.

Nam Vet

(R.E. Broker over 15 years)

[GOPJ]

Metro Washington, DC housing market has topped out...

Metro Washington is a stone, not the mountain. For those of us who own our homes, and have to pay taxes, prices staying the same is good news.

[RightWhale]

Only mineralization in this region is gravel. Some placer gold, but that has already been scouted out. There is zinc and uranium north of town, but that is pretty well known also. There is probably considerable natural gas in the flats west of town, but none of that land is in private hands so the real estate speculator couldn't offer on it anyway. But, the Natural Gas Pipeline could be coming soon, and who knows, my vacant parcel could be right on the proposed route. $$$$$$$ :)

[durasell]

I'm not smart enough to put all the information together, but I do know that a lot of people are up to their neck in debt from equity loans and credit cards. Add to that increased expenses by way of energy and stagnant wages coupled with uncertain job market.

Before any crash there is the smell of fear. I don't think I've gotten a whiff of it yet, but I don't doubt that it's coming.

[surely_you_jest]

anyone who bought a home during the last bubble in the early 90's was pretty happy ten years later. A bubble or short term price drop is only detrimental to those who can't hold the investment for at least five years.

True enough. But the average American only holds a given house for about five years or so, last time I saw a statistic on this point.

[surely_you_jest]

I am more concerned with the additional tax burden which may be imposed locally through the reappraisal of existing homes. There are those who purchased well before the bubble, especially our fixed income seniors, who may be forced to sell due to the added burden. That alone could add a cumulative effect, to the other market forces already at work, and push even more homes onto the market.

A valid concern. There are states, however, which ameliorate that impact. Florida has the Save Our Homes constitutional amendment. In essence, the tax valuation of homestead property starts from a baseline at purchase, and then may only increase in taxable valuation at the lesser of inflation, as measured by the CPI, or by 3 %, per year, whichever is less. In Texas, apparently, your tax (or perhaps it is taxable value) on your home becomes fixed when the owner becomes 60 years of age (this, according to my in-laws). Some other states do similar things.

[surely_you_jest]

The rise reminded me of the stock market pyramid scheme during the Clinton administration.

I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did.

Technical analysis of markets is somewhat like religion - either you believe, or you don't. Having said that, markets that when plotted describe a parabolic curve on the upside, tend to be parabolic (if not more extreme in terms of trend) on the downside.

Real estate, particularly residential real estate, has historically been less volatile than financial markets.

The question, of course, is whether or not the amount of speculation in the residential real estate market might not cause it to behave more like a financial market than the historical norms for the residential real estate markets.

If any of us could predict this with decent levels of reliability, we would be extraordinarily wealthy.