...but then people with that kind of power and ambitions (and irrespective of what folks want to believe, the PRC is still a totalitarian state) have never been known to make rational decisions.
They are rapidly building their military, they are blustering and threatening their neighbors and ourselves, and they may at some point feel the "need" to galvanize their public behind such action. What they consider historical ties and even "ownership" to places like Taiwan and Siberia could easily fuel it.
If they act irrationally, then you are correct.