Posted on 11/07/2005 9:19:07 PM PST by NormsRevenge
CA Propositions 75, 76, 77 Defeated; Propositions 73, 74 Could Go Either Way: On the Eve of a Special Election, California voters defeat Propositions 75, 76 and 77, but divide on Propositions 73 and 74, according to a final SurveyUSA tracking poll.
Support for Propositions 73, 74, 75, and 77 continues to erode. (Proposition 76 is addressed separately in the next box.)
Proposition 73, on parental notification for abortions on minors, led by 11 points 1 week ago, and leads today by 4 points. It may hang-on and win, but if so, by the narrowest of margins. Extending the trend line available here, 73 could also be defeated, also by the narrowest of margins. Neither result should surprise. 73 is tied among women and whites. It is opposed 2:1 in the Bay Area, supported elsewhere in California.
Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, trailed last week by 1 point and trails today by 3 points. Neither a narrow victory nor a narrow defeat would surprise on 74. Union members oppose Proposition 74 by 24 points. Non-union members support 74 by 9 points.
Proposition 75, on union dues, last week led by 1 point, today trails by 9, a 10-point move to "No." 75 is defeated, in large part based on the collapse of support among women.
Proposition 77, on redistricting, trailed last week by 9 points, trails today by 15 points, a 6-point erosion. 77 is defeated, as Latinos and African American voters abandon it in the campaign's final weeks.
Republicans have strongly supported all measures over 4 tracking polls in the last 5 weeks. Democrats, who initially weakly opposed all measures, now strongly oppose all measures.
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Further Results of Parallel-Testing on Alternate Question Wording for Proposition 76: In SurveyUSA's most recent 11/1/05 release on Proposition 76, SurveyUSA presented 3 different outcomes for this Ballot Measure, depending on how the question was summarized to the survey respondent.
SurveyUSA's analysis of its "split-ballot" experiment is described by SurveyUSA here, and separately is placed into a larger context, and analyzed in exceptional detail at the blog "Mystery Pollster," first here (Part I), then here (Part II), and then here (Part III). In the interviews conducted 11/4/05 to 11/6/05, for this final SurveyUSA release, SurveyUSA continued with its 3-way split-ballot experiment.
SurveyUSA's original wording, Version A, shows Proposition 76 defeated by 8 points (45% Yes, 53% No). Version B and C, which in the last release, produced divergent results, today produce virtually identical results (Version B shows "No" winning by 20 points today, 39% Yes to 59% No; Version C shows "No" winning by 21 points today, 39% Yes to 60% No).
As Version B and C converged during the final field period to produce statistically indistinguishable results, SurveyUSA chose here to combine B and C and present the average of B and C as SurveyUSA's final forecast, and best estimate of what voters will do tomorrow, on Election Day.
Because of this choice, there is no "clean" tracking graph that SurveyUSA can display on Proposition 76. The data is presented below, fully crosstabbed, but without track points. All other ballot measures have track points. Click the "T" on the "Interactive Crosstabs" page to see the tracking graphs.
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Filtering: 3,600 California adults were interviewed 11/4/05 - 11/6/05. Of them, 2,922 were registered voters.
Of them, 2,056 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 73. 2,063 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 74. 2,062 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 75, and 2,059 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 77.
Data for Proposition 76 represents a subsample of 1,363 likely voters who were asked either Version B or Version C of Proposition 76 ballot summary.
Data from respondents who were asked the Version A summary of Proposition 76 are highlighted in the box above, but not presented in the Crosstabs below. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. 27% of the "likely" voters report having already voted.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6dc431a5-8970-4caa-8c41-8480863dfe28
Keep in mind that Cruz Bustamonte was beating Arnold before that election and we know how lopsided that was. I'm thinking that California doesn't poll very accurately.
Plus, there was a poll posted that showed those who already voted by absentee had voted in favor of the propositions.
It will be interesting to watch for the results.
Be interesting to see if France has any impact on CA.
Don't worry about the left in CA. The illegal immigrant vote that they count on has historically always come through.
I'm thinking that California doesn't poll very accurately.
That may well be the case.
I, as should all legally eligible and hopefully informed voters, will still be making the trip to the polling place and cast my votes as my own conscience and comprehension skills dictate.
Well... I guess we might as well not go to vote.
Since polling is now the way we determine what the laws should be, who should be elected, and whether something is right or wrong.
No need to vote. Voting takes a lot of time and doesn't truly reflect the will of the people.
I wonder why the founders didn't just use polls instead of voting?
Hmmmmm.....
I voted absentee and of course voted for most of the props. Go Arnold. I believe most of them will pass. I didn't want either one of the prescription drug props to pass but I think one of them will.
I think that liberals, when called on the phone, say they are likely to vote and intend to be at the polls. But, being lazy and liars, they don't show up.
Conservatives, on the other hand, show up. In addition, we man phones and get people out.
I agree that the proliferation of polls and focus groups today acting as the guiding rudders for major policy decisions that are made these days that determine the direction of our states and nation as a whole has put far too many at risk when so few are polled.
They are an affront to the Founding Fathers who resorted to musket balls and the sword only when necessary but put them aside when the pen and quill later better served the purpose in building a nation of laws, common sense and acting in the public's best interests because it was the right thing to do, not just the expedient.
Hopefully a lot of churches (like mine did) pushed hard on Prop 73 this Sunday, which will help our numbers.
The pols have been not right, perhaps because they never just ask the simple questions; what/who are you going ot vote for and have you / are you going to cast a ballot?
Instead they set up a false scenario and predicate with a double negative to allow the only answer they want to hear. There is a lot of dishonest inaccurate rumors floating about, and all by design.
We were out spent massively thanks to the public union's ability to garnish the wages of every employee it claims to touch (member or not). Almost every trick in the book has been used including infiltration into "objective" media forums.
The campaign has been turned into a referrendum on Arnold, not on the merits of the propositions after he's been demonized all year long.
Vote early!
It'll come down to this: support by women (esp. mothers). Arnold's been smeared in a calculated effort to drive them from his corner primarily through the "another bad idea on education" advertising.
If we do lose, it isn't the end of the world. The unions will have stretched themselves extraordinarily thin for finances in the coming years going so far as to mortgage the CTA's headquarters building. Arnold is the gate-keeper for the legislature. We need to make next year about the out-of-control legislature. Campaign folks must devise a way to target the union apparatus without it being seen as an attack on the worker. But, most importantly, they must rebuild the governor's unfairly trashed image.
I'm hoping for rain. ;)
It's supposed to rain in the Bay Area Tuesday.
Tuesday, Nov 8
Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers. Winds from the N at 2 mph. High: 72° F RealFeel: 76° F
Yup! Funny, the ones worried about the rain...are liberals. After all, if it rains, then many of their supporters will stay one. If a little rain is going to stop you from going to the polls, then, IMO, you shouldn't vote in the first place!
Still hoping for good results tomorrow!
I can't believe they don't want 77 to pass
There were sure some dark clouds hanging over portions of the valley and surroundings hills today when we flew in from Vegas.
Rain is good, especially on election days.
At least some of the Rats that get out and vote will get wet tho not thoroughly bathed as a result of any precipitation that might fall. That's good in and of itself. ;-)
Congressman Billybob
Latest column: "Reddy Finney, Joe Enge, and the US Constitution"
Bay Area, Central California and Inland
Monday night, Tuesday AM : A steady rain this evening. Showers continuing overnight. Low 49F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday, Nov. 8 - : Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High near 65F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.
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Los Angeles / SoCal
Tuesday, Nov. 8 - : Mostly cloudy skies with a few showers later in the day. High 66F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Rain or no rain....polls or no polls..I'm driving over 50 miles tomorrow to Save Our State....Convince evry voter you know to do the same.
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