Posted on 11/07/2005 11:15:41 AM PST by Alter Kaker
In Virginia, At the Wire, Momentum Raises Kaine: 12 hours until polls open in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine defeats Republican Jerry Kilgore, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 656 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. This tracking graph tells the story. In June, the Republican Kilgore led by 10. In August, Kilgore led by 5. In September, Kilgore led by 3. In October, the Democrat Kaine led by 2. Today, Election Eve, Kaine leads by 9. Interviews for this survey were conducted before a last-second appearance by President Bush scheduled for this evening, 11/7, on behalf of Kilgore. It is unclear what impact President Bush's 11th-hour visit will have. Since SurveyUSA's most recent poll 3 weeks ago on 10/17, Kilgore has lost 13 points among male voters. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 15 among men. He finishes down 5. Over the summer, Kilgore led among women by 5. At the finish line, he is down 14 among women. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 19 among Virginia's whites. At the finish line, Kaine is up by 1. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 4 among Independents. At the finish line, he trails by 21. Over the summer, Kaine led by 23 points among Moderates. At the finish line, Kaine still leads, but now by twice as much, 46 points. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 11 among Suburban voters. At the finish line, Kaine leads by 9. As the suburbs go, so goes Virginia? We shall see. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open.
Pray and vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This poll is bogus.
Weekend poll, favors libs strongly.
9 points, NO WAY.
However, it's not looking good.
Possibly. A Roanoke College poll is the only other poll to show Kaine with a significant lead -- 8 pts. However, the Roanoke Poll had a gigantic margin of error and I think can safely be discounted. This one, unfortunately, seems to be pretty solid in it's methodology. While there may be some weekend Dem fluff, I can't say I'm not more than a little worried.
Anyone see Kaine's latedst TV ad? Completely in Spanish, including the on-screen graphics.
Anyone see Kaine's latest TV ad? Completely in Spanish, including the on-screen graphics.
Agreed.
There is NO WAY Kilgore is losing indies by 46% points.
If you check out Rasmussen's sight he has Kaine only leading among Independents by 9% (Still enough for a Republican to win in VA by the way).
And the kicker is that SUSA's own poll of New Jersey today has Forrester only behind 2 points among independents.
There is no way a Republican candidate in Jersey will outperform decent Republican candidate in VA among independent voters. Even Massachusetts Independents didn't vote for Kerry over Bush by 46% points last year.
And if you check their tracking, republicans have dropped from 41% of their poll to 37% of their poll.
And, among the republicans, support for kilgore has "dropped" from 88% to 83%.
So, if you believe that we have had a 4% drop in the number of republicans in the last two months, and that those republicans are less likely now to support their candidate, this could be worrisome for you.
If, that is, you also think that the Washington Post poll (which was also highly skewed in its sample) could have actually been biased toward republicans.
Realise that, in the end, it was how they decided who was likely to vote. This meant that they couldn't adjust the poll for historical measures. They simply decided that whatever they found, they would report. They think republicans won't show up on election day.
If they are right, Kilgore will lose. If they are wrong, if we can get the turnout for Kilgore, he will win.
We have enough voters identified to win -- if they all show up.
Charles,
SUSA has Forrester in JERSEY only behind in Independents by 2 points, yet in Virginia Kilgore is losing Indies by 46 points.
There is no way this is an accurate poll.
Don't believe these BIASED POLLS.
JUST GET OUT AND VOTE KILGORE!!!
I didn't see independents lost by 46 points, but it was a pretty big spread. Their stuff broke down now.
Another of their wierd stuff is that they had 15% of people who call themselves "conservative" voting for Kaine. I find that hard to believe. I could believe true conservatives not voting at all.
On the other hand, I suppose it is possible that in the past month the republican party of Virginia has collapsed.
I can't say I like this whole deal about being afraid of Kilgore being afraid of being associated with Bush, until a last minute reversal. It gives the appearance of not being in control.
Tomorrow, SurveyUSA is either going to look prescient or they're going to be the latest in a long series of pollsters to way overstate Democrat strength in Virginia the week before an election. I'd bet all I have on the latter.
The Washington Post is going to be a bit surprised. ("But everyone I know...!")
This poll is BS.
Huh? Please tell me you're not living in VA.
No I do not. I based this on what I thought I read here on FR. It is obvious I was wrong. Thank you for enlightening me.
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