Posted on 11/02/2005 9:12:05 PM PST by neverdem
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 - An outbreak of the avian flu virus in the United States could infect one-third of the population and kill as many as 1.9 million people, according to an analysis by the federal government released today.
The report, by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, said that banning large gatherings and imposing quarantines would likely be necessary in order to contain the spread of the H5N1 avian influenza virus if it mutated into a form easily spread by human-to-human contact.
There have been no reported cases of the virus being spread between humans.
The government analysis released today was part of a plan, broadly outlined by President Bush on Tuesday, to confront threats from new outbreaks of flu. The analysis was based on previous flu pandemics in the United States in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
"When a pandemic virus strain emerges, 25 percent to 30 percent of the population could develop the clinical disease and a substantial fraction of those individuals could die," the report stated. "The resources required for such a vigorous containment would almost certainly exceed those available in the affected communities."
The government analysis found that 40 percent of school age children could become sick with the virus, and between 865,000 and 9.9 million people would require hospitalizations - depending on its severity - a number that would threaten to overwhelm the hospital system.
The virus would affect a community for six to eight weeks and likely come in two different waves.
The report warned, however ,that because such viruses quickly mutate, they are difficult to predict.
"The scope and pace of an influenza pandemic may defy accurate prediction," the report said.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Any shot being given now is for the seasonal flu that is a new combination of strains each year that depends on what emerges in the Far East each year during the late winter to early spring time frame, IIRC. The links in comment 6 review the bird flu situation fairly well.
It's been said that Tammi flu won't do diddly squat against a avian flu pandemic, but foolish people are buying it up anyway, along with flu shots which won't do a thing to protect against this non- existant mutant strain of H51N1.
But what the heck, a good media generated panic sells paper.
I hear you. Apparently my ancestors survived the 1919 pandemic in Philadelphia. Good genes trump the Old Dingy Media Whore any day.
I saw Michael Leavitt say tonight that the mutated (the human-human version) will be related to the H5N1 and Tamiflu would offer some help due to that relationship.
My mom was diagnosed with two different flu viruses at the same time last year.
When will the bird flu vaccine be available? LOL?
You are saved against the flu's which that flu shot was made to help protect against, but you aren't protected from the avian flu, because there is no vaccine for it.
The reason there is no vaccine against this "pandemic" because the strain doesn't exist yet. There is no pandemic, no killer flu. This is a media generated scare much like global warming. which doesn't exist either. If you really want to be afraid and hide in a bubble your entire life, it's possible we could have a "pandemic" flu or some other virus sweep the planet every year. Wash your hands, stay away from filthy whores and other forms of recreation sex outside of marriage, including unnatural sex and you'll be fine.
can we all please ask Jim Rob for a topic link on top, or at least the sidebar?
LOL! You have to wonder why the MSM is pushing this meme so hard.
A bit reactionist, but it does make sense. LOL!!!!
What it MAY do is help strengthen your immune system by helping your body develop more anti bodies, which MAY give you some help fighting off a virus.
Tammi flu isn't designed to help against the H51 virus, because there aren't any that exist which affect humans.
'But what the heck, a good media generated panic sells paper. '
I am glad the gov't got me to buy all that DUCT tape. THAT was a great investment 2 years ago, but we used it all up on car fixes and pipe leaks....
btt
A bit liberatrian, but true. However, now a days, extra marrital sex is becoming the norm. Not with me, btw! Is marriage so cheap now a days!!!! ???? I know a marriage where this seems to be the norm! How odd! How yuckee! Not in my lifetime...not with me,, dude!!
welcome to FR. Sounds like you haven't been reading up on this topic, tho.....
All of us have ancestors that survived the 1919 Pandemic, otherwise we wouldn't be here.
So far, there hasn't been any human infections, it was thought that there may have been in China, but they just aren't sure yet.
The Europeon cases turned out to be false, and the couple reported here turned out false as well.
You can bet that IF a killer strain does develop, which could happen anytime, any year- since the beginning of time- they will add protection for the strain to the flu shot vaccine serum within a year.
They upgrade that vaccine every year to help protect against flu strain mutations. This is nothing new.
This "pandemic" is just a scare which was generated by the W.H.O. in order for them to make themselves seem important, and to suck funds out of UN member nations.
It's better to depend on our own nation's ability to respond and develop a vaccine to any "pandemic" which could possibly develop.
The W.H.O. depends on American labratories anyways.
Thanks for the welcome. I am well read on this topic, I just get tired of seeing this scare being amplified by MSM.
There is no "pandemic", and no human form of the H51n1 flu virus... yet. It just a "possibility".
It has always been a possibility. The spannish flu which killed millions is an example of what COULD happen, but the possibility of that happening is very slim, but possible- each and every day.
At least we are much better equipped to deal with something like this than we were a decade ago.
It's really not anything to worry too much about, and it is certainly irresponsible of MSM trying to create a scare.
Wash your hands often, especially at work and in public when you use public facilities and you will go a long ways toward protecting yourself from becoming sick from any kind of flu or disease.
Yeah, and an asteroid crashing into the Earth COULD kill billions.
Just about the same odds as this avian flu killing millions.
To live your life in fear of these things is not only a waste of time and energy, it is just plain pathetic.
When God decides it is your time to go.... You are going to go.
Don't worry; Be happy.
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