Mark Steyn: Russia is dying and Islamists will grab parts of the carcass

REMEMBER the months before 9/11? The new US President had his first meeting with the Russian President. "I looked the man in the eye and found him very straightforward and trustworthy," George W. Bush said after two hours with Vladimir Putin. "I was able to get a sense of his soul." I'm all for speaking softly and carrying a big stick, but that's way too soft.

Some experts started calling Vlad the most Westernised Russian strongman since Peter the Great and cooing about a Russo-American alliance that would be one of the cornerstones of the post-Cold War world.

From China to Central Asia to Ukraine, from its covert efforts to maintain Saddam in power to its more or less unashamed patronage of Iran's nuclear ambitions, Moscow has been at odds with Washington over every key geopolitical issue, and a few non-key ones, too, culminating in Putin's tirade to Bush that the US was flooding Russia with substandard chicken drumsticks and keeping the best ones for itself. It was a poultry complaint but indicative of a retreat into old-school Kremlin paranoia.

Russia's export of ideology was the decisive factor in the history of the 20th century. It seems to me entirely possible that the implosion of Russia could be the decisive factor in the 21st century.

As Iran's nuclear program suggests, in many of the geopolitical challenges to the US, there's usually a Russian component in the background.

In fairness to Putin, he's in a wretched position. Russia is literally dying. From a population peak in 1992 of 148 million, it will be down to below 130 million by 2015 and thereafter dropping to perhaps 50 or 60 million by the end of the century.

The longer Russia goes without arresting the death spiral, the harder it is to pull out of it, and when it comes to the future, most Russian women are voting with their foetus: 70 per cent of pregnancies are aborted. A smaller population needn't necessarily be a problem but Russia is facing simultaneously a huge drain of wealth out of the system.

Add to that the unprecedented strains on a ramshackle public health system. Russia is the sick man of Europe, and would still look pretty sick if you moved him to Africa. It has the fastest-growing rate of HIV infection in the world. By 2010, AIDS will be killing between 250,000 and 750,000 Russians every year. It will become a nation of babushkas, unable to muster enough young soldiers to secure its borders, enough young businessmen to secure its economy or enough young families to secure its future. True, there are parts of Russia that are exceptions to these malign trends. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a "Mu" and end with a "slim".

So the world's largest country is dying and the only question is how violent its death throes are. Yesterday's Russia was characterised by Winston Churchill as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Today's has come unwrapped: it's a crisis in a disaster inside a catastrophe. Most of the big international problems operate within certain geographic constraints: Africa has AIDS, the Middle East has Islamists, North Korea has nukes. But Russia's got the lot: an African-level AIDS crisis and an Islamist separatist movement sitting on top of the biggest pile of nukes on the planet.

Of course, the nuclear materials are all in "secure" facilities: more secure, one hopes, than the supposedly secure public buildings in Nalchik that the Islamists took over with such ease two weeks ago. They also killed a big bunch of people.

Poor old Russia is awash with resources but fatally short of Russians and, in the end, warm bodies are the one indispensable resource.

What would you do if you were Putin? What have you got to keep your rotting corpse of a country as some kind of player?

You've got nuclear knowhow, which a lot of ayatollahs and dictators are interested in.

That's the danger for America: that most of what Russia has to trade is likely to be damaging to US interests. In its death throes, it could bequeath the world several new Muslim nations, a nuclear Middle East and a stronger China.

Russia's calculation is that sooner or later we'll be back in a bipolar world and that, in almost any scenario, there's more advantage in being part of the non-American pole.

In 1989, with the Warsaw Pact crumbling before his eyes, poor old Mikhail Gorbachev received a helpful bit of advice from the cocky young upstart on the block, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini: "The Islamic Republic of Iran, as the greatest and most powerful base of the Islamic world, can easily help fill up the ideological vacuum of your system."

In an odd way, that's what happened everywhere except in the Kremlin. As communism retreated, radical Islam seeped into Afghanistan and Indonesia and the Balkans. Crazy guys holed up in Philippine jungles and the tri-border region of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, who would have been Marxist fantasists a generation or two back, are now Islamists: it's the ideology du jour. And, despite Gorbachev turning down the offer, it will be Russia's fate to have large chunks of its turf annexed by the Islamic world.

We are witnessing a remarkable event: the death of a great nation not through war or devastation but through its inability to rouse itself from its own suicidal tendencies. The ideological vacuum was mostly filled with a nihilist fatalism. Churchill got it wrong: Russia is a vacuum wrapped in a nullity inside an abyss.

I have no doubt about that. But there's this expression you occasionally hear: "Who is we, white boy?"

We are Russians We are all white and We are boys and girls!

If you're saying that Russia has never shown any aggression towards its neighbors, you need to stop smoking crack. Seriously.

First attack was on Poland at 39 but SU had took back territory which Poland took during Soviet-Poland war several years before.
In Afghanistan SU built more then ruined. Anyway it was mistake. yes. But we loose to USA if to be honest in aggression alot it is true. Russia never made steps like France or Germany or USA now in human history. Yeah, I saw "Brother" (Bpatb- sorry, don't know how to insert cyrillic characters), and I think I pretty much got the gist of it. It might be interesting to know how well movies like that do south of Kazan. Did you watch Brat 2? you should too it is about America :) very interesting! Brat 1 isnt actual now it was 10-13 years ago. There are no more bandits at the streets and blood share of business it's all gone.

That's a wise attitude. The Russian Orthodox church is making a very powerful revival, and all kinds of pre-revolutionary movements and ideas are taking root again.

Just last week, I saw that the Cossack ethnic group, unoffical police force/army, Orthodox crusaders are coming back in force. A lot of good things are on the move in Russia. They also have a great deal of money, and a very realistic attitude about their Muslim friends and neighbors.

Wouldn't count them out, things can change pretty fast.

Your are correct; I was wrong.

In 1974 a referendum to repeal the 1970 Divorce Law was defeated, thereby confirming existing legislation. Other failed referendums included those on the repeal of legislation to increase police powers to combat terrorism and organised crime (1981), to legalise abortion (1981)...

I read this story 2-3 weeks ago and misread it, taking it to mean that the 1981 referendum was to legalize abortion in Italy and that it had failed. In fact, abortion in Italy was legalized in 1978 and reaffirmed by the 1981 referendum.

But, interestingly, the fertility rate in Italy has been below replacement level (2.1) since 1975.

At the same time, I researched the history in Russia. What doesn't get discussed much is the historic lack of suitable alternative birth control methods in Russia.... nor the living conditions, housing situ (waiting for an apartment), lines to necessities, women in the labor force, alcoholism, a KGB agent around every corner, a not-optimistic world view, oppression in general, suppression of religion...that affect child-bearing decisions. And life in Russia has been such that children were apparently a luxury that many people felt they could not afford.

For my part, I won't pass judgement on them because I would not willingly change places/ have changed places with them.

Given the declining fertility rates all across the 'modern' world, perhaps the surprise is that Russian women are having as many children as they are.

First attack was on Poland at 39 but SU had took back territory which Poland took during Soviet-Poland war several years before.

I don't think the Polish saw it that way. Ask any country around the Baltic sea (besides Russia) how much they trust Russia.

In Afghanistan SU built more then ruined.

I don't think the Afgans saw it that way. If the Soviet Union didn't support the nutty violent communist regime that deposed the monarchy in the first place, the Soviets wouldn't have had anything remotely resembling an excuse to invade Afganistan.

Anyway it was mistake. yes. But we loose to USA if to be honest in aggression alot it is true.

Certainly. I mean, Russia had nothing to do with conflicts in Cuba, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, and Eastern Europe. Perish the thought! Russia never made steps like France or Germany or USA now in human history.

Ob kazan! Oh yes, Kazan is part of Russia now. I had a classmate who was a descendent of some central asian royal family that got wiped out by one of the tsars. Forget I alluded to it. Or Poland for that matter. or Finland... Or Korea... I don't know about France, but Germany and the Soviet Union were buddies that shared everything (like Poland and several other bits of eastern Europe) up until the time that Germany turned on the Soviet Union.

Did you watch Brat 2?

It didn't get good reviews on IMDB.com. I don't think it's even available here (for the same reason that "Birth of a Nation" isn't very popular any more).

The problem is, a declining population usually means a declining economy which means a further decline in population, etc. Everyone likes to bash immigration to the US. But immigration means GDP growth.

I didn't make the comment about arresting the death spiral, but I agree with your above comment about immigration.
Problem is that not all immigration is good immigration.

*One would want immigrants who AREN'T going IMMEDIATELY to the welfare rolls (elder family members of new immigrants), medical system (sick family members of new immigrants) or prison system (felon new immigrants a la Castro's dumping).

*Also many new immigrants come here purely for the education, take it home and then are out-source workers. That's a double whammy against us.

*Immigrants who would want to demolish our Christian society aren't welcome either, as far as I'm concerned. I don't want gay marriage MOSTLY because that would open the door for Islam's 4-wife marriage arrangement or Farsi's/India's anything-goes marriages.
Christmas and Easter stay, so do God and Jesus.

*Terrorists, of course, can stay home and pull the bomb cord in their own backyard.

Immigrants who work hard and play by the rules (Arnie's definition) are welcome. That excludes the 11,000,000 illegals here. They are UNwelcome, no matter where they come from or how hard they work or for how little they work. We get enough LEGAL ones to add to our population....and they are welcome, with the above *caveats.

Why does this come as a surprise? Heck, the West already has shown itself willing to slice off parts of the former Yugoslavia and hand them to the Muhammedans in a modern-day Munich Agreement. I've no doubt the Muhammedans hope they'll be as stupid when it comes to former Soviet areas.

You are corrext. Slicing off parts of countries is what the big-stick countries do. Always have; always will. Those who are the slicers think it's OKAY. Those who are the slicees get pissed. Nothing too new here.
Germany lost land to Poland in 1945, with the requiste ethnic cleansing of Germans from the area. Kurt Mansur, a symphony conductor, was born and raised in Germany but his home is now, by virtue of slicing, in Poland. I only know that because I saw him this past weekend conducting Tchaikovsky's 5th sumphony. He is German and from Silesia; I had to google it.
The U.N. sliced up land to make Israel.

Slicing up always creates winners and losers. Thus is the fodder for FUTURE wars. It never ends. Again, you are correct -- "no surprise."

And he fully controls Russian Orthodox Church nowadays as well

You think that PUTIN controls the Russian Orthodox Church?
I respectfully disagree, Julius. If Stalin couldn't control the Church, with his army of slashers, gulagers and such, I don't think Putin can. If all the combined 80-year efforts of the Communist Party couldn't control the Church, I don't believe that Putin can or does either. No one is that powerful.
I think you give him way too much credit.

Frankly, I have no problem with Putin.
He is for Russia. He is for not letting the oligarchs steal the wealth of his country. He is for restoring the dignity of a nation that is reduced to being the prime supplier of cheap white female flesh. Yelstin era democracy failed and failed miserably. Russia needs a period of authoritarianism to get itself together.
There is a natural bent to authoritarianism in the Russian historical narrative. I remember Stalin's 1930 speech in which he described Russian history as a long, long list of beatings she suffered for her backwardness.
In the Russian national memory is the tale of the terrible defeat by the Mongols at the battle of the Khalka, a defeat that doomed Kievan Russia, a defeat suffered because the Russian side did not have a single strong leader capable of imposing unity of command upon the proud, quarrelsome boyars. Kievan Rus did not have a Czar.

Agreed.
Russian history has always been interesting, especially, I think, with the ebb and flow of foreign wives gotten for the Czars. The mix with Europe, then AND NOW, won't do damage to Russia; it will make it better.

"Rus" is the word for "oar," that is, the men with the oars -- Viking Swedes. The nordic influence is strong. The nordic people, of course, are Germanic.

This is an old story I read in the Atlantic Monthly years ago, I think by Robert Kaplan if I remember right.
Predicting the future that far out is plain silly. All it takes is one inspirational leader to turn a country on a dime.
The left over commies are a drag on Russia. I don't expect any of them acquired a work ethic since Glastnos and Perestroika. Once the commies die out, and that capitalism shows that it rewards those that work, I think the downward spiral in Russia sill stop. Given its natural resources and intellectual capital, it may even rise up as the strongman of Eurasia.
Steyn is also silly to think Islam is going to carve up Russia. The whole of Islam still can't rid itself of 6,000,000 or so Jews.

Good analysis.

I think it will take Russia AT LEAST three generations to recover from Communism. It's taking the Germans more time too. Everyone expected the Germans to recover zip-bang because, well, because they are Germans. Lol. No matter what the Germans do, it will never be enough, soon enough or good enough. That is the anti-Germanism we have in this country.

But the ravages of communism linger for, imho, at least three generations, no matter who was under its heinous heel.

Our Russian roommate says the the birthrate of Russia is beginning to grow by tiny fractions. At the hospital where she worked the number rises by 10 or 15 births on average above the previous years average.
Another thing that's going on seemingly unnoticed is a migration out of the cities. Along with the migration to the country there has been a resurgence of birthing by midwife and those children often go uncounted for a few years.

They are anecdotal but interesting. For Russia's sake, I hope they are true. They MAY be.

I just watched a show on National Geographic about Russian women who marry American men and move to America.The women who were interviewed had nothing good to say about Russian men.The Russian men were called drunks,mamma's boys and bums who weren't looking for a wife but someone to take the place of their mother.I was surprised at the number of women who were willing to leave everything behind to marry an American who was usually twenty to twenty five years older than her.

And who brought up those Russian men? Russian women.
Their hatred of their OWN men is very sad....their fathers, brothers, cousins, grandfathers, sons, husbands. Very sad. Shows their own self-hatred.

The Russian brides are clones of the Asian women who hook the 25-years-older sucker-American man for $$$$, to bring in their sick, elderly and poor family....and their own children who are stuck in poverty "back home."

These American men are looking for young doormats because they don't have anything worthwhile to offer American women. Any man who would buy a male-order bride, from Asia, Russia or wherever, is NOT the man any American woman would want.
He is a LOSER. The bride-for-sale is also a LOSER.
Check out the divorce rate of mail-order brides. They almost ALWAYS occur j-u-s-t five years after the marriage....JUST when SHE gets her ciitizenship and learns enough English to say, "I want a divorce, with alimony and child support. I want all the property, cash, bonds and savings. And YOU are paying for it, sucker, the lawyer fees included."

Nothing new here. "There's a sucker born every minute." :o)

Explain to me, please, how he has a good grasp. Outside of ignoring a surge in births that has been going on for the past 5 years (guess it doesn't fit his argument to well), how does he come up with a number of 130 million? It's not even straight line projections. Yes, the Russian population has fallen off from 148 to 143 million this year, that's a fall of 5 million in 13 years but yet Steyn predicts a drop of 13 million in 9 more years? Sorry that alone doesn't pass the smell test.
Furthermore, the main reason for the drop off and the reason the average lifespan has now rebounded is that with the collapse of the health system in the 1990s, the WW2 generation started a massive die off, which is now ending. Furthermore, immigration was also a major factor, but with a rebounding economy and new opportunities, that is also changing. Furthermore, there is an influx from Ukraine, Belaruss, Africa and Central Asia.

Good analysis. Steyn doesn't pass the smell test for me either.

Many people in the world don't want Russia to heal. There is that same feeling about Germany.

Wishing, hoping for the failure of another country is not good thinking. A country's failure is bad for everyone in the long run. One likes to see prosperity in the world. Otherwise, those failed countries will be knocking at OUR door. Lol. OOops, that's not very altruistic of me, is it?

I don't think they hope it will out right fail, I think they hope that it will collapse enough to rise as a new Nazi Germany type and then these armchair warriors will have a purpose in life to fight against....Cold War's end left a lot of people with no purpose in life....and after 14 years they're still searching and pushing to return to the "Good Ole Days". Islam just hasn't provided the big enough crusade.

Thanks I didn't find this info on my cursory, first Google look.

But in comparison to other countries, it is mind boggling to me that we Americans have the most far-reaching and extreme and most punitive-kill-the-most helpless laws (i.e. Partial Birth infanticide and kill the "vegetable laws)for our alive and growing American children in their mothers' wombs and helpless disabled laws in the eentire world!

The most relevant question to ask is:

Who would encourage the most materially blessed nation in the world to have American mothers put their own children -- their posterity and ours -- to death and encourage other countries to do the same through U.S.AID and our own native population controllers to do the same?

By the way, no American citizen has to be a far right-wing,fanatical religious zealot to ask this question.

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