Posted on 10/23/2005 12:50:30 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou
Hurricanes aren't the only things that spin faster with the addition of hot air.
Advocates of the global warming theory seem to spin faster, too - take their recent spin on this summer's hurricanes.
An August article in the San Francisco Chronicle warned, "As the United States experiences more... out-of-season hurricanes like this summer's, more Americans will recognize what the rest of the world has long accepted: Global warming is here, it will get worse..."1
This analysis has a critical flaw: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.2
That would make summer hurricanes in-season, wouldn't it?
And there's another little problem with the Chronicle warning: Much of the global warming that occurred during the last century occurred from 1900-1940, followed by a cooling period that lasted from about 1940 to 1975.
A comparison of hurricane severity against the warming/cooling trends finds that we had an above average number of hurricanes in the 50s and 60s - when the Earth was cooling.
Hurricane severity is governed by a natural Atlantic Ocean temperature cycle that lasts decades. Following the identified pattern, Atlantic hurricanes were especially prevalent in the 1950s and 1960s, were less so from about 1970 to 1994, and, since 1995, have been prevalent again.3
Talk of a link between global warming and increased incidence of hurricanes is just hot air, nothing more.
As Christopher W. Landsea, a scientist with NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, has noted, "It is highly unlikely that global warming has (or will) contribute to a drastic change in the number and intensity of hurricanes."
Landsea found that the number of intense hurricanes (those reaching Saffir-Simpson scale ratings of 3, 4, or 5) actually decreased in the Atlantic during the 1970s and 1980s.4 And from 1991 to 1994, the Atlantic had fewer hurricanes than any four-year period on record, with an average of less than four hurricanes per year.5
The two most intense hurricanes (based on barometric pressure) to hit the United States since 1900 didn't occur over the past decade, but decades ago. The most intense was the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935 that hit the Florida Keys. The second most intense was Hurricane Camille, which hit Mississippi, Louisiana and Virginia in 1969. This year's Hurricane Katrina comes in third.6
Measured by wind speed at landfall, Katrina (140 mph) is fourth, following 1969's Camille (190 mph), 1992's Andrew (165 mph) and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 mph).7
Assuming deaths from Katrina remain under 2,500, as now is projected, the deadliest modern hurricanes also were decades ago: the "Galveston" Hurricane of 1900 and the "Lake Okeechobee" Hurricane of 1928, which claimed more than 8,000 and more than 2,500 lives, respectively.
Needless to say, the burning of fossil fuels - which global warming theory advocates say are overheating the planet - was less prevalent in 1933 than now.
Even if the planet does eventually warm, it's not clear that either the incidence or intensity of hurricanes would increase.
Patrick Michaels, a research professor in environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, has noted, "Atlantic hurricanes are much more delicate than their destruction suggests. One thing they cannot tolerate is a west wind blowing into them because it wrecks their symmetry. As a result, their maximum winds decline."9
These are precisely the conditions that exist during El Ninos - weather phenomena that some scientists believe increase with rising global temperatures.
If they are right, this would mean that global warming might be expected to result in less severe hurricanes.
Other studies suggest that higher global temperatures would also result in fewer hurricanes.
A 1990 study of temperature data by Drs. Robert Balling, Sherwood Idso and Randall Cerveny spanning 41 years found that the warmest years had fewer hurricane days, on average, than the coldest years.
These findings are consistent with the earlier historical record. The most severe storms in the North Sea, for example, occurred during the 15th and 16th centuries, after the onset of the Little Ice Age.10
Nature, not man-made global warming, causes hurricanes.
By claiming otherwise, alarmists are generating a few gale-force winds of their own.
# # #
David Ridenour is vice president of the National Center for Public Policy Research. Comments may be sent to dridenour@nationalcenter.org.
Footnotes:1 Mark Hertsgaard, "Nuclear Energy Can't Solve Global Warming: Other Remedies 7 Times More Beneficial," San Francisco Chronicle, August 7, 2005.
2 Christopher Landsea, "FAQ: Tropical Cyclones," Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), August 13, 2004.
3 For more information, see Christopher W. Landsea, "A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes," Monthly Weather Review, Volume 121, 1993, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/climo/, or "Major Hurricanes Predicted to Increase in Years Ahead," by Hillary Mayell, National Geographic News, July 20, 2001, at http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/07/0719_hurricanes.html.
4 Christopher Landsea, "FAQ: Tropical Cyclones," Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), August 13, 2004.
5 David Ridenour, "Don't Like the Weather: Don't Blame Global Warming," The National Center for Public Policy Research, August 1998, http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA206.html.
6 Doyle Rice, "Hurricane Katrina Stronger Than Andrew at Landfall," USA Today, August 31, 2005, http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-08-31-Katrina-intensity_x.htm
7 Doyle Rice, "Hurricane Katrina Stronger Than Andrew at Landfall," USA Today, August 31, 2005, http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-08-31-Katrina-intensity_x.htm
8 Patrick J. Michaels, "Sowing the Hurricane Whirlwind," Cato Institute, September 21, 2004, http://www.cato.org/dailys/09-21-04.html.
9 David Ridenour, "Don't Like the Weather: Don't Blame Global Warming," The National Center for Public Policy Research, August 1998, http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA206.html.
The Gulf of Mexico is 5 degrees warmer than normal while the Atlantic ocean is a couple of degrees warmer than normal. THAT is the cause of the hurricanes.
Whether this local water effect is related to global warming is unproved just as whether man is causing any part of the global warming is also unproved.
Global warming, however is a fact.
Ping list, and interested freepers, ping
Any unusual climatic phenomenon is fodder for the eco-alarmists. Heat wave in New York? GLOBAL WARMING! Cold wave in New Hampshire? GLOBAL WARMING! Repeat ad infinitem, ad nauseum ...
Glad of it too. Earth would be uninhabitable if it wasn't. -18 degrees C IIRC.
Anthropogenic(man-made) global warming is still just a theory, and likely to remain so.
" Anthropogenic(man-made) global warming is still just a theory, and likely to remain so."
I agree.
But should the warming continue for the next 50 years or so it will be a problem no matter what the cause. We have time to evaluate though instead of foolishly sabotaging out economy with the Kyoto treaty.
There is no normal temperature; there are averages for those areas where instruments have been in place for a long enough period to be considered normal from shared experience.
Anybody have info on the number and severity of Indian and Pacific Ocean storms? If this is GLOBAL, then the Atlantic season ought to be accompanied by GLOBAL increases.
"There is no normal temperature; there are averages for those areas where instruments have been in place for a long enough period to be considered normal from shared experience."
OK 5 degrees warmer than the expected value based on historic data if you don't like the term "normal." Any way you look at it the energy for hurricanes comes from the water and when the water is warmer there are more storms and stronger storms and the water is a record high temperatures for this time of year.
But that still doesn't mean that global warming caused this local effect.
>>Global warming, however is a fact.
If the temperature should go down one year...you'll never hear about it.
"If the temperature should go down one year...you'll never hear about it."
Actually the global temperature rose between 1900 and 1945 then stayed steady between 1945 and 1976 and has risen more rapidly since 1976.
People who claim a simple greenhouse gas heating effect tend to either be ignorant of this or to overlook it.
True...the earth has been warming ever since the last ice age. Abnormal warming is a theory, a bad one at that.
"True...the earth has been warming ever since the last ice age. Abnormal warming is a theory, a bad one at that."
Actually the temperature dropped during portions of the 1800's, a time when greenhouse gasses were rapidly increasing.
People who claim global warming is human caused tend to overlook/ignore this.
Excellent point!
I searched around, no one seems to be noting an increase in frequency or intensity in Pacific or Indian storms. So, what is up with the Atlantic/Carribean?
Could be a crustal hot spot developing. There has been quite a bit of volcanic activity in Mexico and Central America this Summer.
But whatever the cause, everyone knows it's Bush's fault for not signing Kyoto, eventhough the Senate rejected it - 95-0.
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