Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[jeffers]

Oh definitely, get the garage door first. That's the number one point of failure in high wind loads.

The garage door folds inward, the wind "pressurizes" the house while the outside wind creates lower pressure and lift over the roof, the roof lifts taking sections of wall with it sometimes, and it's all downhill from there.

I can show you aerial images of entire neighborhoods where houses on one side of the street failed in a twister, nothing left but bare slabs, while houses on the opposite side of the street survived with missing shingles. Flimsy garage doors facing into high winds are bad news.

If you've got a step up from the garage door into the house, opposite the garage door, you can use it to wedge a brace against the big overhead door. If it's block, then spread the load with a 4 foot or longer timber against the lip before placing the brace.

If you have the material a T-brace will carry more than a simple 2-by brace. Stand a 2x4 or 2x6 on edge, place one flat, centered on top of it, and don't be stingy with 16 penny spikes. If you stagger the joints at least 6 or 8 feet, you can construct a brace of almost any length.

Be sure to spread the load as much as possible at the door end too, in such a way as to prevent the door end of the brace from sliding up the door when it wants to flex inward. No matter how tight you wedge it, gusts will cause it to work loose and it won't do any good.

If you can't manage a long brace, then just reinforce the door across from side to side in an X pattern. If you have the material, T those up too, you'll get a lot more stiffening out of them if you do.

I'll walk a normal 2x12 laid flat at second story level up till 12 feet long, but with 2x6's nailed to the sides I'm comfortable with 24 foot lengths unsupported in the middle.

Raising a solemn beer in memory of your late great patio with not even a subtle wink to acknowlege your true feelings in the matter.

"She was a good porch, but now she's gone, may she rest in peace forevermore."

[sheikdetailfeather]

Outer band headed for Key West per Weather Channel.

[Guenevere]

During last years hurricanes, when we evacuated, we took 2 cars & left 2 cars in the garage braced against the garage door.

It helped.

[Vermonter]

I brace my garage doors with 2x4's and the car bumpers. Stand a 2x4 or two vertically in front of the door, with the top end above the door jamb. Carefully back the car up against the 2x4. You can nail or bolt at the top to hold the boards also. May not be a perfect solution, but it's better than doing nothing ;-}

[exhaustedmomma]

Raising a solemn beer in memory of your late great patio with not even a subtle wink to acknowlege your true feelings in the matter.
"She was a good porch, but now she's gone, may she rest in peace forevermore."

(: :::grinning::: :)

[Vermonter]

Oh, if you do brace your doors, be sure and unplug the openers until you remove the braces. Don't want the doors moving with power glitches!

[laz]

My neighbor who took her stuff inside when I was about to take the photo has left. The guy who was boarding up behind me is gone now too. And the folks across the street left two days ago. Looks like I'm the only one left on my corner.

Just looked outside and cars from two more houses down the block are leaving. I don't know where they're going at this point. A shelter, or hooking up with family elsewhere, I suppose. It's too late to get out of Wilma's way now.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Max Mayfield with the NHC is coming up in a few mins. on Fox.

[Caipirabob]

"She was a good porch, but now she's gone, may she rest in peace forevermore."

And please God, grant that it's not in someone else's living room!

Thanks! I'm going to hit the garage in 10 minutes. If you want a laugh, I'm roasting 3 batches of coffee in anticipation of losing power for at least 3-5 days. I can deal without electricity, but it's beyond a man's limitations to expect them to go without coffee...

BTW- That last "wind penetration" graphic is excellent. I hunted them down a NOA. Very informative, I'd never seen them before, and they answered the right questions at the right time.

[jeffers]

So far all reports correspond with F2 damage, partial or total roof failures, but most walls still standing. Not surprising as the measured winds from Wilma fit right in the middle of the F2 range.

http://www.tornadoproject.com/fscale/fscale.htm

Still looking for comprehensive surge damage reports from the lagoon wall at Cancun. Photos from your link indicate that most structures avoided major structural damage (no more wondering where the floating glass came from though, the Flea Market was a major contributor) but discovery of isolated catastrophic failures are still possible.

[steveegg]

It's Ed Rappaport - tropical storm-force winds out to 220 miles, almost out to the Keys.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Circulation is expanding per NHC. The first squall is expected in the Keys within an hr. Cat. 3 conditions possible in the SW Keys. (Ed Rappaport)

[jeffers]

Had me going too. I clicked on at least five images before I noticed that.

[NautiNurse]

Looks like I'm the only one left on my corner.

Hmmmm...are you on the water or otherwise in a flood zone?

[steveegg]

NHC update - In about an hour, tropical-storm winds will start to hit the keys. 5 ft storm surge in the Keys, 13 feet in SW Florida (make it 8 and 15 if Wilma strenghtens). Landfall between Ft Myers and Naples about daybreak, with SE Florida expected to get Cat 1-2 winds, and SW Florida/Keys getting Cat 2-3 winds.

[exhaustedmomma]

bump

[jeffers]

"Vermonter (and Guenevere) wrote:

"I brace my garage doors with 2x4's and the car bumpers. Stand a 2x4 or two vertically in front of the
door, with the top end above the door jamb. Carefully back the car up against the 2x4. You can nail or
bolt at the top to hold the boards also."



Oh, I like that a lot better. Do that.

To heck with all that nailing and cutting I suggested.

[laz]

This used to be Zone B, but now it's called Zone X. I'm about a mile, mile and a half from the coast. Actually, most of the area around me is Zone A. My block seems to be located on a tiny bit of higher ground in Cutler Ridge, like a tiny little island surrounded by Zone A. When Katrina hit here, all of Cutler Ridge flooded with two feet of water which lasted several days, except for two or three blocks around me.

What worries me is the possibility of waterspouts. There are no barrier islands directly opposite my area. To the north, there's Key Biscayne, and to the south, there's Sands Key, which is followed by the rest of the Florida Keys. So there's a large gap where I am. If a waterspout forms out there in Biscayne Bay in my area, there's nothing to block it or slow it down if it comes at Cutler Ridge.

[NautiNurse]

What worries me is the possibility of waterspouts...If a waterspout forms out there in Biscayne Bay in my area, there's nothing to block it or slow it down if it comes at Cutler Ridge.

So, what time are you leaving this afternoon?

[laz]

Cat. 3 conditions possible in the SW Keys.

Is it too late to ask Gazoo to make Wilma disappear?

Gazzzzooooooo!!!

LOL