Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[laz]

I suppose it is possible that the forward speed of Andrew, 20 mph, helped raise it to a cat 5.

North of the eye, I'd say the effect was comparable to a Cat 5.

[Jrabbit]

I am so glad to see that others were hearing what I was. Fox is absolutely pathetic today. I thought the "reporter" was going to burst into tears because some people have decided to stay in their homes. Seems to me, the people down there aren't stuck on stupid. Florida knows how to "do" hurricanes from what I've seen.

[laz]

I don't think it's factored in.

[laz]

Is Geraldo there to scare the babies? Pretty soon they'll make it sound like the Superdome.

[Chanticleer]

You mean we actually know how to do something? Hurrah!

Now if we can just learn to handle those tricky voting machines....

[ladyjane]

.also turn up your freezer/refrig to High

And make sure that your refrig and freezer are filled. You can even use old liquid detergent bottles filled with water. They'll hold the cold if the electricity goes out for an extended period.

[Jrabbit]

That's a whole different story! LOL

I suppose I shouldn't even be commenting. I've never been through a hurricane. But, I can "do" tornadoes. I'd rather not, but have actually had experience with those demons!

[jeffers]

I think you're right, max windspeed is max windspeed, regardless of storm movement. From two relevent paragraphs at the hurricane hunters webpage:

"Special weather sensors mounted on the WC-130 are tied directly into the IWRS computers, and measure temperature, dewpoint (humidity), barometric pressure, actual
(radar-measured) altitude of the aircraft, and winds to calculate a complete weather observation every 30 seconds. The computers are also connected to the aircraft navigation
system, which adds position to each observation. "

"The sonde measures winds by a rather elegant method. The sonde triangulates its position relative to several different Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites in orbit. If there
were no wind, the sonde would fall straight down, and its position over the earth would not change. However, as the sonde drifts, it calculates the wind speed and wind direction
needed to push the sonde by that amount. "

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/faciwrs.htm

Both statements indicate that the Vortex data, the basis for most subsequent projections, represents data measured relative to a fixed position on earth. Therefore, max wind is max wind, regardless of storm motion.

[elfman2]

Yea, I can't stand Fox right now. They can't figure out that the stom to hit Florida is much smaller, weaker and faster moving than the one that hit Mexico. They confuse the 13' storm surge is a wrost case for Naples, not the Keys. We're anticipating 4-7' here, according to Max Mayfield.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Jeb Bush to be on at 1pm. Per WFTV Marco Island to Key West is the strike area. The cold front looks to be below Sanford and Daytona at present time and running right through Orlando. This front is not expected to move a whole lot. Once Wilma exits the state around West Palm, it will have mixed with the cold front and will become extratropical.

[ThreePuttinDude]

This morning Mrs. ThreePuttin was on the lanai
and asked me if I heard anything strange.

I listened and said no.

She said thats right, not even a bird chirping...kinda strange

[elfman2]

"I just got back from Publix, the one on US 1 and about 148th. "

Sam, Publix closed up two days ago down here. They’re always the first to go, taking most of their frozen foods with them. They weren’t fully restocked for over a week after Francis. They say they have to do so for insurance reasons, but they signed the policy. It doesn’t endear them to the population, who still have Win Dixie and the Island Market (Key Largo Shopper) to chose from.

[laz]

I don't think so. Check this out: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

I clicked Gulf Coast Region, Category 2, Forward Motion (20 knots). It says MAX WIND=090 KT, SPEED OF MOTION=20 KT, and shows a result of 110 KT.

[Sam Cree]

Did you leave? Best of luck!

[elfman2]

No, right now is my first chance to even get shutters up. Damn plywood things, and we just took them down 3 weeks ago. Back in 2 hours...

[sheikdetailfeather]

NHC says they figure the forward speed into the MAX speed but I agree it does not seem so with the stats you are showing. I heard today Orange County Public Schools are closed tomorrow. That is a biggie. They always hold out until they have no choice.

[NautiNurse]

Great story! Thanks for the link.

[sheikdetailfeather]

2 minutes heads up for Jeb's 1:00 news conference.

[olrtex]

Good luck and prayers to all you Floridians. Here in Texas, we are just glad it's a little cooler.

If Wilma comes in at Everglades City with storm surges of 5' to 10', what happens to Everglades City and Chokoloskee--and just what is Chokoloskee (all I know is what I see on MapQuest)? How do you get a little town right in the middle of the Everglades National Park? Is it made up of $3 Million homes, trailer homes, or Seminole chickees (I'm only half joking since I've never visited the Everglades, although I would love to)?

[NautiNurse]

Jeb Bush to be on at 1pm.

I timed the return pretty well then.