Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

With the AF Hunter bingo fuel, the next update won't be until the 11 am suite of updates. Will be back then.

[Chanticleer]

No flamingos? No lawn gnomes? Now we know what to get you for Christmas!

Ok, I don't have any either. I do have one very discreet resin frog (my second son loves frogs) and one terra cotta angel that was a housewarming gift peering out from among the foliage. No gnomes outside, but we do have a julenisse who observes our indoor Christmas festivities, courtesy of a Norwegian friend.

More about Norway at www.stavanger-web.com

There's a fine line between whimsy and tacky....

Still, there's something in them that appeal to my sense of humor. I've been debating having lighted flamingos and gators in the front yard at Christmas. They seem more fitting than a snowman, but they might clash with our manger....

But hey, if you've got 'em, secure 'em!

[Caipirabob]

Howdy, y'all...

Taking a break, we have the vunerable sliding glass doors exposed to the SW boarded up. I may or not do one more set. So far I don't think anyone else in my West Boca neighborhood is out there. I hope I'm overreacting.... : )

[steveegg]

Amateur interpretation of the 12Z model runs linked above (except for UNKET, which is a 05Z run) -

BAMM, UKMET and GFDL indicate an Everglades landfall
BAMD follows the NHC track and indicates a Marco Island landfall
A98E indicates landfall a bit north, more toward Naples
LBAR finally comes off Tampa, indicates a landfall around Venice.

[NautiNurse]

Just got off the phone with my mother in Stuart. Hutchinson Island is being evacuated now. That's where both Frances and Jeanne made landfall last year.

She said there is a steady stream of traffic over the bridge.

[steveegg]

Hope so too. The official track has Wilma exiting Florida around Jupiter, but some of the latest model runs has her exiting much closer to Boca Raton. She will be moving quickly regardless.

[Sam Cree]

Well, you don't know whether you are overreactiing until after it's over. As Jeb says, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

I'm boarding up my place here in south Dade, but I expect the winds will be worse in Boca than here. A lot of folk in this neighborhood have already boarded up, remembering 92.

[Caipirabob]

Well, that cuts it. I'll board up the bathroom. Thanks for the motivation, I really do need to do it.

At this rate I'll be done in time to enjoy afternoon football, so it's not all bad!

[PogySailor]

bttt

[Chanticleer]

The bad thing about hurricane preparation is that with some folks, you just can't win. If you prepare and it misses, they laugh and say you wasted your time. If you don't prepare and it hits, they say you were foolish for not preparing. The only way to "win" is to get hit but not suffer much damage.

I think these folks are usually the ones who have never been through a really bad storm.

I agree -- hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

[Elle Bee]

it's a beautiful sunny morning here in Key West

Locals flock to Grotto as storms nears
BY TRACI C. RORK Citizen Staff

KEY WEST — In one of the most hurricane vulnerable cities in North America, it doesn't take new residents long to learn about the city's secret for deflecting tropical storms — The Grotto.

A shrine fashioned after the famous grotto at Lourdes, France, it was built at the direction of Sister M. Louis Gabriel three years after the 1919 hurricane killed more than 800 people in the Florida Keys.

Gabriel, who had lived through three destructive hurricanes, built the grotto and dedicated it to Our Lady of Lourdes and St. Bernadette. She did so with the hopes and prayers that the island would escape devastation from future storms. So far, it has worked.

Knowing that the community has flocked to the Grotto since 1922, the congregation held a 5 p.m. Mass there Monday to pray for safety.

For Jo Anne Robertson and Janis Scholfield, both Duffy's Restaurant employees, lighting a candle at the grotto is an integral part of their preparations.

"It's always worked for me," Scholfield said while completing her ritual, and her confidence is present in the hearts of many grotto visitors.

With what was then Tropical Storm Rita quickly approaching, even those closest to God were buying batteries.

"Oh my gosh," the Rev. Francisco J. Hernandez-Arenas of St. Mary Star of The Sea Catholic Church said early Monday afternoon when he finally sat down. "I just got back from buying supplies and heard the storm could reach Category 3 strength; we're still cleaning up from Hurricane Katrina."

After the grotto service, the church will close and board up like the rest of the Keys and wait, or evacuate depending on how things progress.

Father Paco Hernandez, as he's affectionately called, said he will be staying for the storm despite Mayor Jimmy Weekley's warnings, but many of the church employees will be evacuating.

"I have been here for three and a half years and want to be here to help after the storm," Hernandez said.

.

[SouthTexas]

I think these folks are usually the ones who have never been through a really bad storm.

Or not at all. I was born and raised on the Gulf coast. ALWAYS prepare!

[NautiNurse]

Thanks very much for the local story. You always have the best stories! Take care, and please check in when you can.

p.s. Would you pleaae FRmail me info about your kevlar shades? Haven't found much about them via internet search. Want to get them before next season.

[jeffers]

The 0400 has the 0400 + 24 and the 0400 + 36 hour plots 350.5 miles apart.

That would translate to a forward speed of 29.5 mph, raising the projected 85 kt (98 mph) winds to 127 mph, high Cat-3, low Cat-4 level, south of the center.

[ThreePuttinDude]

A lot of folk in this neighborhood have already boarded up, remembering 92.

I drove through Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte yesterday, and the majority of businesses were boarded up. I didn't get into the residential neighborhoods, but I'll just betcha that after last year, people take this a little more serious.

Reporting Live from Sarasota County....ThreePuttinDude---over and out

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for checking in. It's going to be a long night tonight.

[tiredoflaundry]

duuuuuuuuuuuude! ;-)

[SamAdams76]

Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather just posted this morning that he is pretty sure Wilma will join up with Alpha off the East Coast and generate a massive East Coast storm with hurricane force winds on the New England south coast and wind-blown snow in the interior of New England all the way down to interior PA. This will be happening from tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Joe will have more details up later today.

Anyway, good luck down in Florida. Looks like things are going to start moving quickly from this point on.

[Elle Bee]

p.s. Would you pleaae FRmail me info about your kevlar shades? Haven't found much about them via internet search. Want to get them before next season.

done

.

[NautiNurse]

got it - thank you!