Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[NautiNurse]

Having it hit towards Ft. Myers/Charlotte could actually be worse for us. We'd be on the right side it.

I just wish this storm would rake her path through here and be done with it. The cone of uncertainty is huge across the FL peninsula. Then we can begin the clean up.

[Sam Cree]

Just watched Don Noe's report. He's my favorite local TV met by far. No grandstanding, no melodrama, just matter of fact intelligent analysis with a pleasant demeanor. I know everyone loves Norcross, but to me he always seems a little too much like he's hoping for a hit.

[jeffers]

Discussion 31 shows landfall 3.7 miles south of Naples, at 0851 Monday morning. Times computed this way usually run late than reality, but maybe not so much in this case, with a data point just inshore.

Tomorrow when the ERC is done and the eyewall diameter firms up, I'll put up some surge extent projections.

[laz]

and tomorrow by ten pm, she'll be up near top speed.

Amazing that she'll get all the way from the Yucatan to Florida in about the same amount of time that she spent parked over Cancun and Cozumel.

[laz]

Discussion 31 shows landfall 3.7 miles south of Naples

That's in line with my own prediction that she won't hit north of Naples. I'm calling for a Cat 2, borderline Cat 3.

[The Iguana]

Discussion 31 shows landfall 3.7 miles south of Naples, at 0851 Monday morning. Times computed this way usually run late than reality, but maybe not so much in this case, with a data point just inshore.

Joy.

I'll be keen to see those surge projections.

[BurbankKarl]

Looters Cancun

[laz]

Just watched Don Noe's report. He's my favorite local TV met by far.

Yup, he's straight and to the point. No embellishment.

[jeffers]

Between this time (2200 EST) tomorrow and 12 ours later, an hour after landfall, they show her moving at 20.9 mph, average.

If she pulls a Rita, she'll run off and leave a ridge of surge behind her, which the winds west of the eye will shove down towards the Florida Keys, hours after landfall.

[AggieMom x 3]

Thanks for the tip. That was our first trip down there and we fell in love with the area. We were hoping to go back this winter but may have to postpone it a bit now. :(

[sissyjane]

Well it's nice to know that we have a lot in common with our southern neighbors.

[laz]

I see the bare necessities of life are the same in Cancun as in New Orleans. LOL

[NautiNurse]

That big screen tv is sloshing in the flood water. Nobody ever accused looters of being rocket scientists.

[laz]

I would not be surprised to see that scenario materialize.

[CedarDave]

Maybe his brother will appoint Jeb as next FEMA director after his term expires.

[Marak]

They nudged it back to the south again.

[NautiNurse]

Jeb is a bit overqualified for the FEMA director position. After all, James Lee Witt, the most qualified FEMA consultant on the planet, earned the position with a high school diploma.

[jeffers]

Me too. No promises, lot of variables with this one, all of them seemingly skewed away from "normal" values.

Karl, how come reporters never have any problem getting pictures of looters, and cops and military types with licence to kill orders never seem to even get a sniff?

Is this a case of dead men tell no tales, or are looters just naturally drawn to reporters?

[Chanticleer]

Goodnight, Nurse. Goodnight, all. Guess we'll be together again tomorrow ... at least until the power goes.

[Sam Cree]

See you guys tomorrow. Though I probably won't be around much, what with finishing up preparations for Monday.