Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

I think the thing that has impressed me most about this storm is how consistent the NHC projections have been and how well they have matched reality. I think the largest deviation I've seen so far has been about 7 miles before landfall on the Yucatan. From a regional view and higher, seven or eight projections might as well all be one track.

Especially with the models all over the place. There's a nice spread in landfall predictions between the 6 models in the gif above.

[Major_Risktaker]

High tide at Naples is at 5:39am today at 2.6'. next saturday high tide is at 3.8'. Right now that extra foot of room is looking good.

Nice Tag Line!

Marco Island storm serge will be interesting as for now were well below the news hype.

[rodguy911]

We just lost power for a couple of minutes.
If I had to guess I would say this huge eye will come in between north of Naples south to about shark river in the enp. it's huge. our winds are really strong right now.

[steveegg]

Mornin'. Just about in time for the 5 am updates too.

Wish I had better news, but Wilma took her vitamins. The 3 am advisory put her at 120 mph, but on its way out (too late to be included), AF305 found a 135-knot flight-level wind. AF302 should be in the area shortly.

[jeffers]

You all are under the...hmmm not sure what to call it...the inner outer outer eyewall convective blob thing. Nomenclature aside, there more precip showing on the northern feeder than there is in the core.

[jeffers]

Are you on Marco Island right now?

[NautiNurse]

I have no doubt you are getting it plenty worse down there than we are. Just got in from checking the boat on the lift. Water level in the canal is just about what it was four hours ago. All is secure.

[rodguy911]

I got outvoted, I kinda wanted to but the rest wanted to go back home. Our next big thing will be high tide at 230 this afternoon. If I still have power, i will let you know if we get water, can't see out right now and it's way too windy to try and open the door.

[SauronOfMordor]

Mother-in-law is in Fort Lauderdale area. She is NOT going to be having fun this morning. Took a look at the size of the eye on the local radar. Yikes!

[rodguy911]

You may get sort of a pass there but the tornado thing can happen almost anywhere.

[geopyg]

Where are you? My Mom has a condo on the beach in Naples. she's up in Minnesota until January.

[jeffers]

I've got 4 radar feeds open on two computers now, plus Photoshop, a mapping program, andtwo other browsers, including this one. been watching the eye since around 2300 except for an hour's nap.

I smell molten silicon too.

[geopyg]

Do you wear soft contacts!!??

[Bahbah]

That's 1:30 my time. I'll be watching for you.

[jeffers]

Yes, why?

[geopyg]

The molten silicone!!

[rodguy911]

plantation key across from the govt. center.

[Major_Risktaker]

Are you on Marco Island right now?

I had just seen the news report and interview on Marco and it looks ok. Will see soon...

[rodguy911]

thanks i hope we can keep power for a while, but i really don't expect too.at least we get a cold front out of the deal.

[jeffers]

No, the smell is from overworked computers.I've hung this one twice, really ugly ones that took a power-off halt to correct. The server is hanging tough though, it's been up for almost 48 hours now. Here, have a look:

http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/home.html