Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[steveegg]

I think the thing that has impressed me most about this storm is how consistent the NHC projections have been and how well they have matched reality. I think the largest deviation I've seen so far has been about 7 miles before landfall on the Yucatan. From a regional view and higher, seven or eight projections might as well all be one track.

Especially with the models all over the place. There's a nice spread in landfall predictions between the 6 models in the gif above.

[Major_Risktaker]

High tide at Naples is at 5:39am today at 2.6'. next saturday high tide is at 3.8'. Right now that extra foot of room is looking good.

Nice Tag Line!

Marco Island storm serge will be interesting as for now were well below the news hype.

[rodguy911]

We just lost power for a couple of minutes.
If I had to guess I would say this huge eye will come in between north of Naples south to about shark river in the enp. it's huge. our winds are really strong right now.

[steveegg]

Mornin'. Just about in time for the 5 am updates too.

Wish I had better news, but Wilma took her vitamins. The 3 am advisory put her at 120 mph, but on its way out (too late to be included), AF305 found a 135-knot flight-level wind. AF302 should be in the area shortly.

[jeffers]

You all are under the...hmmm not sure what to call it...the inner outer outer eyewall convective blob thing. Nomenclature aside, there more precip showing on the northern feeder than there is in the core.

[jeffers]

Are you on Marco Island right now?

[NautiNurse]

I have no doubt you are getting it plenty worse down there than we are. Just got in from checking the boat on the lift. Water level in the canal is just about what it was four hours ago. All is secure.

[rodguy911]

I got outvoted, I kinda wanted to but the rest wanted to go back home. Our next big thing will be high tide at 230 this afternoon. If I still have power, i will let you know if we get water, can't see out right now and it's way too windy to try and open the door.

[SauronOfMordor]

Mother-in-law is in Fort Lauderdale area. She is NOT going to be having fun this morning. Took a look at the size of the eye on the local radar. Yikes!

[rodguy911]

You may get sort of a pass there but the tornado thing can happen almost anywhere.

[geopyg]

Where are you? My Mom has a condo on the beach in Naples. she's up in Minnesota until January.

[jeffers]

I've got 4 radar feeds open on two computers now, plus Photoshop, a mapping program, andtwo other browsers, including this one. been watching the eye since around 2300 except for an hour's nap.

I smell molten silicon too.

[geopyg]

Do you wear soft contacts!!??

[Bahbah]

That's 1:30 my time. I'll be watching for you.

[jeffers]

Yes, why?

[geopyg]

The molten silicone!!

[rodguy911]

plantation key across from the govt. center.

[Major_Risktaker]

Are you on Marco Island right now?

I had just seen the news report and interview on Marco and it looks ok. Will see soon...

[rodguy911]

thanks i hope we can keep power for a while, but i really don't expect too.at least we get a cold front out of the deal.

[jeffers]

No, the smell is from overworked computers.I've hung this one twice, really ugly ones that took a power-off halt to correct. The server is hanging tough though, it's been up for almost 48 hours now. Here, have a look:

http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/home.html