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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
Take the 135kts down by 10%.
That's 121.5 knots at the surface, or 139.6mph.
From the 700 mb flight level, it's 90%. From the 850 mb flight level, it's 80%. That 135 knots supports 121 knots at the surface.
I'm crazy about Orlando Salinas...now it appears, he's just plain crazy!! Sooner or later, one of these showboaters is going to get hit in the head with a flying house trailer.
I know that is comforting! The wind blowing alot yet?
I thought the norm was 90% of the 860 mb fl level winds. NHC has used 80% from time to time when they thought that the 90% figure was not accurate for some reason in that particular storm. So, I guess the 80 or 90% is correct. Either way 135knots (knot = 1.15 MPH), is gonna leave a mark! OUCH.
Orlando Salinas and Steve Harrigan, two of my favorites. I was sure Harrigan was going to be killed in Iraq.
860 should be 850. oops.
The CNN blog reporter is in Marco Island, see:
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/10/23/blog.sun/index.html
I gotta get some sleep now -- prayers to everyone's families in the path of Wilma!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 157 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067-068-071>074-240800- BISCAYNE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-PALM BEACH WESTERN- PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-BROWARD METROPOLITAN- WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLE GLADE...WEST PALM BEACH... MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...FORT LAUDERDALE...SHARK VALLEY... MIAMI 157 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 ...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... AT 150 AM...THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...ENTERING INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ONSHORE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN THEIR PLACE OF SHELTER AND NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
That 5 am advisory is going to be very interesting. A surprising increas in flight-level winds, a 3 mb drop in pressure, and movement to the east-southeast (73 degrees) at 22 mph over the last 1:05. The time-stamp of 0711Z suggests that it didn't make it to the NHC in time to be included in the 3 am advisory.
Good night buickmackane.
On track as of 0100 EST.
Did you see the SNL satire on the hurricane weather reporters?? It was too funny!
I can hear some really nasty gusts outside. One of them lasted for half a minute before it faded out.
Key West tide gauge at 4.91 ft above MLLW and climbing.
Toss out the 0200 position update; the 0300 advisory termed it too far to the east.
>>>That would be jeffers. The full path/surge projection (based on the 1400 EDT track from yesterday) is here<<<
Thanks!
Wilma is not backing down. Very strong. 136 MPH MSW Winds estimated in NE Quadrant 1 per USNMD. So much for this being a "minor storm" per one expert.
I don't think Hunble has the guts to ever show up here again.
Forgot to mention that puts Wilma 103 miles west-northwest (242 degrees) of Everglades City and 87 miles northwest (232 degrees) of Marco Island.
Already did, it didn't fit.
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