Hurricane Wilma...Florida Freepers stay alert.
Get ready, Florida.
Hurricane Wilma...Florida Freepers stay alert.
Hurricane Wilma...Florida Freepers stay alert.
Head's up South Florida....
Monitoring ...
Thanks for the ping, I have family in Punta Gorda.
I'll be watching this one.
...Wilma becomes the 12th hurricane of the season as it heads northwestward...expected to strengthen further today... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands. Wilma is forecast to become a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. All interests in western Cuba...the Yucatan Peninsula...the Florida Keys...and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Wilma. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 16.5 north... longitude 80.6 west or about 195 miles... 320 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 200 miles... 325 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma is expected to become a major hurricane during the next day or two. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb...28.85 inches. Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras and Nicaragua. Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.5 N... 80.6 W. Movement toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 977 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT. Forecaster Franklin
NN,
I bet you are getting tired of starting these hurricane live threads...
Wilma is being upgraded to a hurricane based on subjective Dvorak classifications of t4.0 from all agencies...and objective T numbers from UW/CIMSS of t4.5 since 09z. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system this afternoon. Cold convection is being maintained over the center...and strong upper-level outflow channels continue to the northeast and southwest of the center. Oceanic heat content ahead of Wilma is high. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air mass in the Gulf and extreme northwestern Caribbean...but the large and growing circulation of Wilma should be able to keep much of this air from reaching the core. A high likelihood of rapid strengthening is indicated by the SHIPS rapid intensification index...and it is likely that Wilma will be a major hurricane when it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma accelerates northeastward late in the forecast period...wind shear is forecast to increase...but there may not be enough of it to weaken Wilma very quickly. However...it is Worth remembering that there is little skill in long-range intensity forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 320/5. There has been little change to the track forecast thinking. The mid- to upper-level low that had been off the Southern California coast is now moving northeastward...and as it progresses high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken...allowing Wilma to move through the northwestern Caribbean and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about three days. Once Wilma moves north of the subtropical ridge axis and encounters mid-level westerly flow...an acceleration northeastward is expected. Model guidance has not changed much and remains in very good agreement...and the official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and close to the dynamical model consensus. Wilma...the 12th hurricane of the season...ties the record for most hurricanes in a season set in 1969. Forecaster Franklin forecast positions and Max winds initial 18/1500z 16.5n 80.6w 65 kt 12hr VT 19/0000z 17.0n 81.2w 75 kt 24hr VT 19/1200z 17.7n 82.3w 90 kt 36hr VT 20/0000z 18.5n 83.5w 100 kt 48hr VT 20/1200z 19.6n 84.5w 105 kt 72hr VT 21/1200z 22.0n 85.5w 105 kt 96hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 84.0w 100 kt 120hr VT 23/1200z 28.5n 78.5w 75 kt
I heard from some weather wonk last night that this late in the season a storm going into the Gulf from this area tends to hook to the right and weaken. Here's hoping :)
Thanks for the ping, NN. Being near Ocala, looks like I'm north of the projected path. I'd feel a lot better if my new roof was finished. My son-in-law says "one more day".
bump
Good thing I left my shutters up after Rita. After Katrina caught me off-guard without shutters, I put them up for Rita and decided to leave them there for the rest of the season.
Ping to the Hurricane Wilma live thread ...