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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )
NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notbreakingnews; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: steveegg

Did you mean unchanged pressure at 892 mb?

Also, someone posted that the storm was stalled. This says it's moving NE at 10.8.

What time did this run?

Thanks


941 posted on 10/19/2005 1:33:01 PM PDT by standingfirm
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To: dirtboy

NHC conference coming up, significant track changes the speculated reason.


942 posted on 10/19/2005 1:33:02 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: SE Mom
D'OH! 892.

I pulled a Franklin :-)

943 posted on 10/19/2005 1:33:37 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: mhking
4:45 presser scheduled with Max Mayfield of the NHC -- it looks like there will be a "major change" in the forecast track that will be reflected with the 5P update.

Yes, there are local rumors the storm may miss FL altogether...hoping, hoping...

944 posted on 10/19/2005 1:34:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: steveegg

that's good, I don't do snow anymore,but the better half is up in duluth and I am sure she will get a few flakes..


945 posted on 10/19/2005 1:35:02 PM PDT by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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To: standingfirm

I meant 892. The motion was based on the difference in eye fixes in the last 2 vortex data messages (3:56 pm EDT and 202 pm EDT).


946 posted on 10/19/2005 1:36:12 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: steveegg; NautiNurse

Ok..so we cross our fingers:) This could be GREAT news!

And...then NN and I spend the weekend eating malted milkballs!


947 posted on 10/19/2005 1:39:05 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: NautiNurse
Yes, there are local rumors the storm may miss FL altogether...hoping, hoping...

From your mouth to God's Ear.

948 posted on 10/19/2005 1:39:19 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Tampa Bay, Home of the Stanley Cup Champions The Tampa Bay Lightning!)
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To: NautiNurse; mhking

CNN and MSNBC WILL cover the conference for the broadband-impared. Fox hasn't made it past the bottom-of-the-hour update yet. Haven't heard anything of TWC.


949 posted on 10/19/2005 1:40:39 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: tiredoflaundry

Amen to that....waiting hopefully here in Sarasota


950 posted on 10/19/2005 1:40:47 PM PDT by standingfirm
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To: NautiNurse
Yes, there are local rumors the storm may miss FL altogether

Are you the one spreading that rumor? :-)

951 posted on 10/19/2005 1:42:12 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: SE Mom
So far, it's only the GFS-based models showing the Mitch-ification of Wilma.

Fox will also be covering it, so you don't have to listen to Wolf Blitzed or PMSNBC. TWC will not be carrying the presser.

952 posted on 10/19/2005 1:43:53 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: Fawn

So far, 302 feet is the farthest I have managed to smack the penguin.


953 posted on 10/19/2005 1:44:40 PM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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To: Howlin; NautiNurse

5pm track is out. No significant change.


954 posted on 10/19/2005 1:47:59 PM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: NautiNurse

Either way, signs are good for FL from what I gather. If it goes over mexico at all, you will see a very much weakened storm.

NHC slowing it down, means they think it will miss the brunt of the trough. Late season... tricky, tricky.


955 posted on 10/19/2005 1:49:54 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: dirtboy
Found this, I believe it's from NOAA:

As Mitch moved back over the Gulf of Mexico, it regained tropical storm status for the third time. It raced northeastward and pounded Key West with tropical storm force winds and heavy rains on November 4-5. ... Rains of six to eight inches were common in southern Florida and several tornadoes struck the region. At least 7 were injured when a tornado swept from Marathon to Key Largo. A second tornado touched down at Miramar north of Miami. At Fowey Rocks Lighthouse, just southeast of Miami, a wind gust of 73 mph was reported...

Apparently Mitch killed 11,000 people in Central America, which is shocking.

956 posted on 10/19/2005 1:50:13 PM PDT by Sam Cree (absolute reality - Miami)
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To: steveegg

Poor Max Mayfield..he's showing the different models..looks like a toss up..depending..on ..

pppfffttt...


957 posted on 10/19/2005 1:50:36 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: steveegg
No major change to the forecast track, although it gets really close to Cancun - the 5pm conference might be to encourage folks to get out of there.

Looks like concentric eyewalls are setting up on the latest sat photos.

958 posted on 10/19/2005 1:50:42 PM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: Howlin
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 18

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005

...Wilma continues toward the Yucatan as a potentially catastrophic
category five hurricane...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Swan Island.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from south of Tulum to
Chetumal Mexico...and for Belize from the border with Mexico
southward to Belize City.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 17.7 north... longitude 83.7 west or about 285 miles...
460 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near  7 mph...11 km/hr.  A
turn to the northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.  

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this
intensity...and are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was  892 mb...26.34 inches.

 
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches...with
isolated amounts of 10 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

If the center of Wilma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula...
coastal storm surge flooding of 7-10 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of the center.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.7 N... 83.7 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  7 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 892 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

959 posted on 10/19/2005 1:50:52 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: AGreatPer

"Hugo in Cancun"

Must have been a different storm. Hugo '89 hit the Lesser Antilles, then Puerto Rico, then it made a beeline for South Carolina.


960 posted on 10/19/2005 1:51:02 PM PDT by cll
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